PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MossMan]

The Ropers just told me that they are holding out hope for a last minute tweak and we still get a lot of snow, even if it’s not prolonged. 

[umadbro]

In all fairness, everything east of the Rockies is definitely due. We’ve been raking in all the cold and snow events while they’ve been high and dry the past few years

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Interestingly enough there IS a minor push of cold air into the basin that makes it possible for the metro area to stay as ZR... which is unfortunate. It is winter weather I suppose! 

I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Not good…

We don’t need to worry about that, will be in the 40’s. 

[BLI snowman]

Good news for the ice haters is that since the low level cold really doesn't get established very much, the ZR maps look pretty far fetched in this scenario. Pretty difficult here on the westside to sustain the temps you need (31F or lower) for significant icing with such a flimsy airmass.

[Nov1985]

Wed nt and Thursday could be a bit rough in the PNW.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Christmas was also very warm in 2005. 

Late Christmas Eve 2005 into Christmas morning I think 4:30 AM we had a quick hitting localized south wind storm gusts 55-60mph here and transformers blowing. I bet it lasted only 45 minutes.

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 41 minutes. Who's staying up?

[Hawksfan2008]

The same volatility that got us here can get us back to a huge event. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Not good…

10 day out ice projections... 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am taking a step back from model riding for a bit. I will let this pattern sort itself out. 

I wanna wait for the EPS but also I’m kinda done, what a colossal letdown by the Euro. Heading on Playstation or something if anyone wants to make a comfort group lol. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Christmas was also very warm in 2005. 

Time to hit the lake! 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Christmas was also very warm in 2005. 

Doesn't fit well with Dewey's Janubrrrrry call, though.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We don’t need to worry about that, will be in the 40’s. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Wed nt and Thursday could be a bit rough in the PNW.

 

Nope. 40’s. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The same volatility that got us here can get us back to a huge event. 

I'm honestly a little surprised from all the panic. Still a ways out. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What do the snow maps show for Monday - Wednesday period? 

40’s and rain. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The same volatility that got us here can get us back to a huge event. 

Exactly! 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm honestly a little surprised from all the panic. Still a ways out. 

Yeah, hasn't this happened before, where there's a rug pull, and then sometime later we get better runs again?

[Hawksfan2008]

EPS has initialized  

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't fit well with Dewey's Janubrrrrry call, though.

January 2006 was pretty epically cold in Russia, I believe.

[Gradient Keeper]

I wonder how completely different the models look in 2-3 days.

[Cold Snap]

I honestly think this whole thing was jinxed the second this tweet went up.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm honestly a little surprised from all the panic. Still a ways out. 

Is this a brand new out of the box Snowmizer?

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nope. 40’s. 

Maybe somewhere, but still freezing in many areas as that accumulates.

Near 50F at 4am Saturday morning though!

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I honestly think this whole thing was jinxed the second this tweet went up.

yup, should've had second thoughts like are you REALLY sure you want to tweet this? like honestly sure? lmao

[Dave]

If I was a puppy and lived in the Eugene area, I'd be getting a bit worried.

[WeatherGeek2022]

pure emotional torment that the euro was cornered.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Is this a brand new out of the box Snowmizer?

My brain was smoking after trying to figure out a problem on a Toyota today that all the other shops failed on. I win I figured it out. Seriously though how many times have all us long timers been through this lol? I believe we have enough time to watch the models put some sort of stability on the table that will most likely be fun.

[Snownerd3000]

45 minutes ago, umadbro said:

PDX NWS

 

The bottom line is that there
 remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to
 cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do
 not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high
 likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of
 an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather
 scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the
 ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario,
 deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited
 utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a
 particular scenario panning out. -Neuman

 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The same volatility that got us here can get us back to a huge event. 

I want everyone to score of course, but realistically, there is very little support for things suddenly reversing for the better now.

You'd need a historic change in the modeled macro-pattern within 5 days. The trend is clear, and it's not good. Blocking is very transitory. Probabilities are low for a better outcome than currently depicted.

I do think best case scenario at this point would be, as BLIsnowman described, a poor man's Jan 2012. Some heavy lowland snow, at least briefly, probably more as you go further north.

But honestly, there was better blocking for Arctic air to move south with that event than seems realistic now.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I wonder how completely different the models look in 2-3 days.

But we are also getting closer so the swings are going to narrow.   Who knows though.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Not good…

Over an inch of ice on Vancouver Island. 0% chance that verifies.  The low level cold never holds here once the upper levels warm up. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just going to focus on short term improvements. EPS

[Dave]

31 degrees. At least the wheelbarrow ice has started forming.

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

everything is fine this is fine it's just 1 run right?

[Doinko]

PDX down to 33

[Slushy Inch]