PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Olive1010]

yeah i was jealous when seattle got their snow last week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's really chilly by this weekend even. 

I really believe what i said last night, something big is coming this winter. Could be a mega windstorm or a mega ice storm or mega arctic air and snow but something historical is coming i feel.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow just looked at 12z GFS, EURO. Wind potential, lowland snow potential, and backdoor arctic air. Crazy model riding ahead we are getting no break in that! Outstanding.

18z GFS in 1 hour 48 minutes

Say it Rob! Say it!!

Better runs abead!! MBG

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I really believe what i said last night, something big is coming this winter. Could be a mega windstorm or a mega ice storm or mega arctic air and snow but something historical is coming i feel.

My wife keeps saying this too. Meanwhile my daughter had a 2 hour delay this morning due to "icy roads." They are now up to 3 snow days and 3 2 hour delays. 

[Guest administrator]

Anyone want to check up on Judah and make sure he is ok? If this continues into early February, then I legit fear for his beloved machine learning MSPaint model.

Also... wind storm, maybe ice, maybe snow, mostly cold, all around my birthday which is between the 13th and 15th, I mean, what a gift.

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I really believe what i said last night, something big is coming this winter. Could be a mega windstorm or a mega ice storm or mega arctic air and snow but something historical is coming i feel.

I can feel it comin in the air tonight

[SnowHawks]

More importantly what would it take for a region wide snowstorm. I know over running events will do it, but that would mean an end to the snow and cold air. I have seen the recent Kuchera maps and well, they are a joke. This hit or miss BS gets a little tiring. We have only so many bites at the Apple.   

[Guest administrator]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife keeps saying this too. Meanwhile my daughter had a 2 hour delay this morning due to "icy roads." They are now up to 3 snow days and 3 2 hour delays. 

My Grandma-in-Law who is with us has been on about how this year feels like the ones of her childhood, so that might be something, or that might mean Grandma needs her meds adjusted.

[Olive1010]

what are you guys thinking of? When you say a historic storm? 

[Olive1010]

I mean febuary ry of 2021 we got 10.1 inches in portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I recall the 12/14/16 event didn't come into focus until about 48 hours before the event. Even then it seemed incredibly marginal and I remember on the morning of 12/14 driving to the airport not completely sold that the valley was going to score. Some light snow had begun to fall by the time I got to the terminal, and my wife somehow missed the traffic Armageddon on the Portland freeways and made it to work in Mt. Angel where several inches of snow had already fallen by that time. My Dad works in Dallas, OR and just made it across the Marion St Bridge in Salem before they had to close it (Salem only has one bridge over the Willamette River.). Quite a few people missed my flight due to getting stuck in traffic. 

It was a bit of a bummer I missed the cold weather that followed, though while I was in Oklahoma we had a ferocious arctic frontal passage and a low around 0 one morning.  

[High Desert Mat?]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

They’re trolls. Especially a couple I know up there

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

More importantly what would it take for a region wide snowstorm. I know over running events will do it, but that would mean an end to the snow and cold air. I have seen the recent Kuchera maps and well, they are a joke. This hit or miss BS gets a little tiring. We have only so many bites at the Apple.   

Is that you Cliff Mass?

[TT-SEA]

37 with a dewpoint of 35 here... drippy.     

Just measured in the same spot as last time and down to 7 inches of snow on the ground now (down from 12).

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

More importantly what would it take for a region wide snowstorm. I know over running events will do it, but that would mean an end to the snow and cold air. I have seen the recent Kuchera maps and well, they are a joke. This hit or miss BS gets a little tiring. We have only so many bites at the Apple.   

Region wide storms, generally referring to that which would encompass the entirely of the PDX/SEA metro areas, require a ton of  warm air advection. Something like 1/6/04 or 12/20/08 where you have a massive amount of low level cold air availability and a massive amount of Pacific moisture. 

[Gradient Keeper]

40 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Without the arctic air. Ya. 

You sure? 850s -12c the Dalles. Strong east winds for 24+ hours pulls modified arctic air into PDX metro. It will be colder than modeled, always is. Imagine if the Gorge and Columbia Basin were snow covered going into this event too.

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

You sure? 850s -12c the Dalles. Strong east winds for 24+ hours pulls modified arctic air into PDX metro. It will be colder than modeled, always is. Imagine if the Gorge and Columbia Basin were snow covered going into this event too.

Warm tongue on its way!!!

[SnowHawks]

I'll be Cliff Mass if you want me to be

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

You sure? 850s -12c the Dalles. Strong east winds for 24+ hours pulls modified arctic air into PDX metro. It will be colder than modeled, always is. Imagine if the Gorge and Columbia Basin were snow covered going into this event too.

Most models overdid the amount of low level cold advection the last few days.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

More importantly what would it take for a region wide snowstorm. I know over running events will do it, but that would mean an end to the snow and cold air. I have seen the recent Kuchera maps and well, they are a joke. This hit or miss BS gets a little tiring. We have only so many bites at the Apple.   

December 2021 brought a good amount of snow from Eugene all the way to Vancouver. Though it was kind of light around Portland.

[MossMan]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

I have no weather related pics from 12/14/16 but a pic I took of my dog on the 15th shows bare ground.  

And yes I get twitchy when anyone else scores, doesn’t matter if it’s to my north or to my south…I simply want all of the snow…ALL OF THE SNOW!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Most models overdid the amount of low level cold advection the last few days.

Bizarre.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

what are you guys thinking of? When you say a historic storm? 

January 1950

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bizarre.

First. Time. EVER.

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What was the setup for the snow on 2/4/2019? We had a slushy inch with that.

Amazing day up here! 

[RentonHill]

Eepus

[Olive1010]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 2021 brought a good amount of snow from Eugene all the way to Vancouver. Though it was kind of light around Portland.

[RCola]

28 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

yeah i was jealous when seattle got their snow last week.

Nothing to be too jealous of. We didn't get anything accumulating in downtown outside of a slushy 0.1" and immediate suburbs below 200 ft. Just festive flakes with rain mixed in.  It's the higher elevations outside the city that really did well. 

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What makes a good winter?

One where EVERYONE scores at the same time. 

[Olive1010]

Is there a possible situation or scenario  that SEA/PDX would get snow 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

Is there a possible situation or scenario  that SEA/PDX would get snow 

Yes.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Is there a possible situation or scenario  that SEA/PDX would get snow 

February 2021. Didn’t go too far south of PDX though. 

[LowerGarfield]

Snow stopped right after I took that photo so good for Poulsbo for getting me to sneak out to finish up. Going to put the board away in about ten minutes. 1.70 storm total underperformed but I'll never complain for a event that allowed us to briefly play outside before school/work or anything over an inch. We had no melting yesterday at least and a subfreezing high (but those are routine here but still fun).

Some of the snow on the trees is falling but not much so not a ton of melt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Is there a possible situation or scenario  that SEA/PDX would get snow 

Many ways, One easy way is arctic air in place and a typical front approaching from the west that would normally bring rain to Portland and Seattle. A cold low moving down the coast from north to south also works. 

[Olive1010]

what do strong east winds look like on wind gradient. Or isobars?

[fubario]

1 hour ago, JSnowlin said:

This winter sucks.

Where on the East coast are you?

[Guest administrator]

28 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

They’re trolls. Especially a couple I know up there

Look man, I just want everyone but you and the marginally pretentious Canadian raspberry to score.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sadly not a ton of ensemble support for the operational 12z Euro. EPS still keeps us in a generally chilly pattern though.

 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 35. Got down to 23 last night before the clouds rolled in. It looked like the clouds were breaking up and the sun was starting to come out but the clouds have gotten thicker. Still have a 4.5” snow depth and this is my 7th straight day with snow cover.

[Guest administrator]

I'm going to enjoy this dopamine high until someone from North Bend inevitably shares a Judah tweet about how the EPS has shifted all of the blue on the map between Baltimore and Boston and a mega ridge with SW flow will make the local palm trees sing Mele Kalikimaka.