PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Cliff Mass gonna need some Pepto before NYE.

Only 129 Inches on the bc coast? 

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Was it 420 when you pulled this?

what?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The most widespread regional events have mostly come from systems associated with strong Arctic fronts. Those have been known to deliver accumulations all the way from Bellingham to Salem or even Eugene.

But as has been well-documented, quite a while since the PNW has seen one.

Very few even in my lifetime/memory. January 1930 and December 1924, and 1919 are three epic examples. 

Edited December 5, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12/20/08 and 1/6/2004 were the most widespread ones I can think of. 1/1/2004 was pretty widespread too if I recall. I know PDX to Eugene got snow, and I thought Seattle did too. 

I remember 1/6/04. That was the end of winter. Got a solid 6 to 8 inches before switching to freezing rain. It was dumping though while it lasted. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still on 37 at SLE, but clouds were breaking up a bit ago in North Salem, and it seems to be working south. Hard to imagine SLE won't pump off a 40 at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I remember 1/6/04. That was the end of winter. Got a solid 6 to 8 inches before switching to freezing rain. It was dumping though while it lasted. 

We had a ton of snow and then our worst ice storm of my lifetime until February 2021. 

I don't know if you guys who didn't experience understand how FU*KED up that ice storm was. It was like the whole area got hit by a tornado that stripped every tree. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had a ton of snow and then our worst ice storm of my lifetime until February 2021. 

I don't know if you guys who didn't experience understand how FU*KED up that ice storm was. It was like the whole area got hit by a tornado that stripped every tree. 

Snow level going to be about 1000' too high for you Thur-Sat?

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

what?

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I think they are just 10 years old.

[RentonHill]

watch our ridge slowly come back to life. Like a christmas blow up decoration. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I think they are just 10 years old.

[Phishy Wx]

26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Fall lasted like 2 weeks in late October and early November then just went straight to winter basically. It’s crazy how we went from mid 80s and smoke to snow in about 6 weeks. There was even some lowland snow in early November so more like 3 weeks .

yep i've had snow on the ground now 29 of the past 31 days and constantly since 11/7

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS makes it all up for the north Sound folks who were screwed last week...

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We never had a fall up here this year...

Never had much of a fall up this way, either. Bone-dry with temperatures well into the 70's Fahrenheit into late October than a rapid crash to subnormal temperatures. Sticking snow in the first week of November (though a few days later than you got it).

[Christensen87]

Still showing snow during the game Sunday as well. 

[Olive1010]

18 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I think they are just 10 years old.

no

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS makes it all up for the north Sound folks who were screwed last week...

 

Might as well snow another foot out here, the new thing i guess! honestly the wet heavy snow can stay away for awhile. 

I'd rather everyone get 3 inches of fluff than a small area get 12 inches of slush.

[Slushy Inch]

Subfreezing highs for Seattle.

[Slushy Inch]

Everyone gets the goods in this run. Fantastic 18z GFS. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

wow even more snow Tim past the map you posted.

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Subfreezing highs for Seattle.

Yeah that 12-15 day span is high

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Yeah that 12-15 day span is high

12-15 day??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A secondary low forms after the main low passes and just spins off the coast sending in moisture. Perfect snow set up.

[MossMan]

It’s coming! 

[High Desert Mat?]

Question for the veterans. 
Since the teleconnections aren’t too favorable the next few weeks, how likely is it to get arctic air here or a big snowstorm without those same tellies on our side? I mean, the pna, epo, nao etc. don’t have to be negative right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Money

[RentonHill]

GFS looks like the Euro

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very few even in my lifetime/memory. January 1930 and December 1924, and 1919 are three epic examples. 

Yeah. Although the initial Dec 2008 front delivered snow to the majority of the I-5 corridor, I believe.

Also seems like Feb 2011 was pretty widespread, and Dec 1990 (though there were definitely spots that missed out or had very light accumulations for both).

Feb 1989 was probably the last powerhouse one that got basically everyone.

[RentonHill]

850s

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A secondary low forms after the main low passes and just spins off the coast sending in moisture. Perfect snow set up.

This run is nearly ideal snow setup for western Washington. Moist lows from the south stall and send moisture. Could use some colder temps for first system though.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GFS looks like the Euro

Dam! Beautiful ridge bridge!

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Question for the veterans. 
Since the teleconnections aren’t too favorable the next few weeks, how likely is it to get arctic air here or a big snowstorm without those same tellies on our side? I mean, the pna, epo, nao etc. don’t have to be negative right?

They are. EPO and PNA are both negative at some point. 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Kuchera... 207 hours... nice!

 

[smerfylicious]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yep looks about right. Average winter weather in the GFS world.

[High Desert Mat?]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

They are. EPO and PNA are both negative at some point. 

I appreciate the maps. But I’m wondering g if there’s been cold and snow with them being positive? I’m sure there has bit is it really hard to do?

[RentonHill]

I also have a question for the high counceel: how do typical PNW setups/progressions differ between nina/nino, if at all?

[North_County]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Never had much of a fall up this way, either. Bone-dry with temperatures well into the 70's Fahrenheit into late October than a rapid crash to subnormal temperatures. Sticking snow in the first week of November (though a few days later than you got it).

This is true. I was just commenting the other day that the creek behind my house is still in the channel, and not filling up the wider creek bed. Usually it spends the entirety of mid-October through about early-April overtopping the banks of the channel and filling from embankment to embankment. I think this is a good example of a mostly non-existent fall.

Pictures taken (entirely by accident) in almost the exact same spot. One was this past weekend, with the creek still fully within the channel. The other taken last October. Outside of the channel, and filling the width of the bed. That's about typical (or perhaps a bit low) for average fall and winter water levels.

Can't really tell in the photos, but the water's about three feet deeper in the second photo.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep looks about right. Average winter weather in the GFS world.

The average snowfall is 6 or so inches at SeaTac because the crazy winters balance out all the pathetic ones!