PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I also have a question for the high counceel: how do typical PNW setups/progressions differ between nina/nino, if at all?

I don't know about progressions. I do know La'nina is supposed to be more influential after new year's, and there isn't much variance in Summer. For the setup/patterns, you can look up a picture.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If the GFS was believable, I wonder if the NFL would start making contingency Plans

 Pretty serious snow Saturday and Sunday 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Light snow. Temp 35°F, DP 31.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I don't know about progressions. I do know La'nina is supposed to be more influential after new year's, and there isn't much variance in Summer. For the setup/patterns, you can look up a picture.

I mean i know what the typical season-long picture looks like. But for the different types of snow patterns for our lowlands that Dewey and others have laid out, are any of those more or less likely to occur during one background state or the other? IDk the answer is probably no but I was just curious. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks close to 1996 redux for Seattle on 18z GFS...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

If the GFS was believable, I wonder if the NFL would start making contingency Plans

 Pretty serious snow Saturday and Sunday 

At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe.  

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep looks about right. Average winter weather in the GFS world.

12z Euro is also in the GFS world

 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe.  

"white out" conditions. amazing!

[North_County]

Just now, Doinko said:

12z Euro is also in the GFS world

 

So, when do we start telling people.....?

[RCola]

Always surprised when the majority of us swear off the GFS after it fumbles our snow plans, only to indulge in beautiful 18z GFS 100+ hour snow maps a week later. Weenies gonna weenie, I love it.

Encouraging signs for sure in the 500 mb pattern. Definite improvement in the main models and ensembles for the next week or so.  But, we've been here before with watering down cold, so I'd be cautious. 

I think BC is a slam dunk in this pattern for cold or snow or both. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Light snow. Temp 35°F, DP 31.

Short-lived flurry. All over.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

The average snowfall is 6 or so inches at SeaTac because the crazy winters balance out all the pathetic ones!

Long term mean is actually a little over 10" at SEA, and should be a little higher but they're missing some data from the mid 1990s to early 2000s.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

I mean i know what the typical season-long picture looks like. But for the different types of snow patterns for our lowlands that Dewey and others have laid out, are any of those more or less likely to occur during one background state or the other? IDk the answer is probably no but I was just curious. 

I don't think so, a La'nina type pattern is needed in any snow event; to get the cold air in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound.

Just a bit south would be nice!

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RCola said:

Always surprised when the majority of us swear off the GFS after it fumbles our snow plans, only to indulge in beautiful 18z GFS 100+ hour snow maps a week later. Weenies gonna weenie, I love it.

Encouraging signs for sure in the 500 mb pattern. Definite improvement in the main models and ensembles for the next week or so.  But, we've been here before with watering down cold, so I'd be cautious. 

I think BC is a slam dunk in this pattern for cold or snow or both. 

It's pretty close to Euro right now! EPS has 1.5 inches for SEA around the 10th or 11th. GFS had been meh until now.

[Phishy Wx]

26, been cloudy and flurry-y all day

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe.  

...for now 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound.

No kidding! GEM has that problem too.

[RCola]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound.

It'd be an interesting experiment to run the ICON with initial conditions like 1950, 1996, 2008, etc., and just see what it would output. That'd be incredibly telling. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

...for now 

Very true!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Just a bit south would be nice!

Could happen, this low placement is far from resolved!

[Doinko]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Could happen, this low placement is far from resolved!

Yeah, the Euro takes it to Vancouver island, the 12z GFS took it to Newport. Maybe it'll take a good track for most of us! Or a wind event maybe.

[LowerGarfield]

31 degrees right now. Probably past the peak warmth of the day and likely subfreezing. Tomorrow will be above freezing here so I don't expect the snow to last. But it's been a good day even if modest.

[RCola]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's pretty close to Euro right now! EPS has 1.5 inches for SEA around the 10th or 11th. GFS had been meh until now.

The 500mb pattern between the two is definitely in pretty good agreement, for now. We haven't gotten into that 5 day window where the two will inevitably be at odds with each other over something significant.   

As much as I'd like to, I just don't trust the GFS low-level precip type parameterizations right now. In the past week, I do believe the GFS has led the way on the amount of precip we've received, but it leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to precip type.  If you combine GFS precip with the way the Euro handles precip type, I bet you'd be closer to the truth. Time will tell. 

[Winterdog]

30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Same model, same joke, different time.

[Phishy Wx]

KGEG running -11.5 for December so far after November finished -7.8 for the month

snow depth is currently 8"

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

20 minutes ago, RCola said:

The 500mb pattern between the two is definitely in pretty good agreement, for now. We haven't gotten into that 5 day window where the two will inevitably be at odds with each other over something significant.   

As much as I'd like to, I just don't trust the GFS low-level precip type parameterizations right now. In the past week, I do believe the GFS has led the way on the amount of precip we've received, but it leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to precip type.  If you combine GFS precip with the way the Euro handles precip type, I bet you'd be closer to the truth. Time will tell. 

If either the GFS or the Euro were accurate, I would have 10 inches plus of snow.  Factually, I have zero.  Most of what snowed melted on contact.  Must be the warm roads.

[Gummy]

 

 

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had a ton of snow and then our worst ice storm of my lifetime until February 2021. 

I don't know if you guys who didn't experience understand how FU*KED up that ice storm was. It was like the whole area got hit by a tornado that stripped every tree. 

February 2021 and 12/8/2016 were the worst ice storms I can recall locally. Never seen the amount of tree damage the former caused from any weather event I've experienced.

[gusky]

6 minutes ago, Gummy said:

 

 

They fixed it!!! (Kinda... was definitely more than 0.1" but at least now it's measurable.)

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, Olive1010 said:

Yeah that 12-15 day span is high

That is essentially one entire 384 hour model run at that point just say the run was pretty good 

[joelgombiner]

Big expansion in western snow cover over the last month. First image is Nov 5 and second is Dec 5 (today). 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Something big is coming. Extreme..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty.

I have often thought about that as well.   Sort of scary.  

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Something big is coming. Extreme..

Once in a lifetime event plz

[Guest administrator]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I have often thought about that as well.   Sort of scary.  

Big snow storm, followed by an icing, then a gale, then a flash freeze, then more snow, then brutal cold, then more snow, then I wake up and realize that this fantasy exists on the shores of Labrador.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have often thought about that as well.   Sort of scary.  

And i believe this area is still capable of something like that. It honestly would be to deadly to hope something like that happens. The local economy would really take a hit.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty.

Its coming