PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Lastest weeklies keep us cooler than normal but a new wrinkle shows troughing moving east around Christmas.

Looks about as good as we could hope for. 

[dhoffine]

NWS has changed the predicted forecast for Enumclaw Friday night from 1-2inches of snow, to rain and snow, no accumulation..  Super...  I wanted one more go this weekend.

[Phishy Wx]

looks like next Tuesday - Saturday is the next window for fun and games, at least on the eastside

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like areas along Hwy 22 west of Salem just picked up a little snow. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Are you done?

Just talking weather.    Probably not done.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's interesting. I was realizing the snow up there probably wasn't quite as widespread as it appears by reading this forum. Weenies tend to gravitate towards favored locales. 

Yeah its really not that widespread...As has been seen all over the sound, it is extremely hit or miss, and a very atypical hit or miss pattern at that.  For my neck of the woods, Bellingham got a brief dusting, they got snow out on the islands way before anything showed up in Whatcom/Skagit County thanks to the outflow.  The models were showing a donut hole for Bellingham/SW Whatcom county monday night (or was it Tuesday, losing track) and I assumed it would be due to the moisture being eaten up by the outflow.  Quite the opposite, we had plenty of moisture, but we lost the outflow.  They got crazy snow up at the border where they held on to the cold, and down where Randy is at (but that is no surprise).

 

Since then the moisture has been south.

 

I'm stockpiling cardboard and tarps, I might have to go down and set up a homeless camp on a remote corner of Randy's property.  Hopefully that's not near the tree that Phil insists is gonna fall any minute.

 

[Randyc321]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Disregard them all and go with the ECMWF.   Its has been amazingly accurate the last couple of days... as usual.

I'm hoping the ECMWF is underdoing the moisture.

BTW I edited my original post.  I am hoping the WRF to closer to reality than the NAM.  Don't like that model.

[fubario]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@snow_wizard

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah its really not that widespread...As has been seen all over the sound, it is extremely hit or miss, and a very atypical hit or miss pattern at that.  For my neck of the woods, Bellingham got a brief dusting, they got snow out on the islands way before anything showed up in Whatcom/Skagit County thanks to the outflow.  The models were showing a donut hole for Bellingham/SW Whatcom county monday night (or was it Tuesday, losing track) and I assumed it would be due to the moisture being eaten up by the outflow.  Quite the opposite, we had plenty of moisture, but we lost the outflow.  They got crazy snow up at the border where they held on to the cold, and down where Randy is at (but that is no surprise).

 

Since then the moisture has been south.

 

I'm stockpiling cardboard and tarps, I might have to go down and set up a homeless camp on a remote corner of Randy's property.  Hopefully that's not near the tree that Phil insists is gonna fall any minute.

 

It has been a weird pattern. Both the post frontal situation on Monday and then last night were prime for snow here, but there was just no post frontal moisture to speak of. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

According to High Dessert we should be well into the 40’s after today! 

Seattle will be soon enough. 

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

meh had to happen at some point, bonus is it's not terrible and keeps us cold/chilly.  I'll also will be on NYC for XMAS > NYE so maybe I can selfishly see NYC dressed in snow and maybe a 'noreasta

Hopefully the inversion keeps the cold in place in Sunriver for late December. Honestly I’d rather have below zero nights with 6” of snow on the ground out there than have 3’ on the ground and not get below high teens.

[FroYoBro]

Had a light rain shower around 7am, but it has been dry since then. Too bad today couldn’t have been a little more dynamic with moisture. Still a cold day with some nice looking clouds. Still only 39 degrees here even without showers. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by FroYoBro

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hard to bet against Dr. Nein a lot of the times.

Dr Nein is the ICON!

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Dr Nein is the ICON!

[Skagit Weather]

Up to 35F here. Was kind of hoping I'd get to squeeze a subfreezing high out of this airmass, but alas it was not meant to be. Maybe tonight will be cold as I still haven't seen any particularly cold lows either.

[Cold Snap]

National weather service is going for 1-2 inches out in my area tomorrow night. Meanwhile weather.com shows a 29 degree rain happening for tomorrow night with no snow.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Up to 35F here. Was kind of hoping I'd get to squeeze a subfreezing high out of this airmass, but alas it was not meant to be. Maybe tonight will be cold as I still haven't seen any particularly cold lows either.

Bummer....we are sitting at 26 still here.  If we can hold out for another hour or so we should be good with a midnight high of 27.  Looks like  KBLI is up to 28.

[Snownerd3000]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

meh had to happen at some point, bonus is it's not terrible and keeps us cold/chilly.  I'll also will be on NYC for XMAS > NYE so maybe I can selfishly see NYC dressed in snow and maybe a 'noreasta

I was there this last February and had one really chilly day with some flurries but nothing big.  I got excited bc I got an alert for a snow squall only to find out it was meant for another city all together lol. Wishing you the best of luck.

[SnowySeeker50]

33 degrees right now. Most snow on the road has melted away and about an inch on untouched grassy surfaces remains.

[Snownerd3000]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks about as good as we could hope for. 

Definitely seen worse setups and things certainly could change in the pattern.  I was hoping they'd get their chances more midmonth before we reloaded and we see the fun close to christmas.  Guess we'll see.

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Had a light rain shower around 7am, but it has been dry since then. Too bad today couldn’t have been a little more dynamic with moisture. Still a cold day with some nice looking clouds. Still only 39 degrees here even without showers. 

Looking like Sunday may be our best (only) real chance now, with the wraparound deformation stuff. And precip type could be an issue with that, as the warm layer aloft might make sleet or ZR a better bet.

Edited December 1, 2022 by BLI snowman

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking like Sunday may be our best (only) real chance now, with the wraparound deformation stuff. And precip type could be an issue with that, as the warm layer aloft might make sleet or ZR a better bet.

Even that has trended poorly today on models. I think I’m escaping this pattern without any snowflakes. 

[snow_wizard]

23 in Sumas today.  That is some pretty legit cold!

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

National weather service is going for 1-2 inches out in my area tomorrow night. Meanwhile weather.com shows a 29 degree rain happening for tomorrow night with no snow.

The latter ain't going to happen there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some frozen precip falling in Salem, not sure if it is hail, grapuel, or snow, my guess is one of the first two.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

NWS has changed the predicted forecast for Enumclaw Friday night from 1-2inches of snow, to rain and snow, no accumulation..  Super...  I wanted one more go this weekend.

This next shot is a terrible setup for you and I.  We might get some flurries from some of the early moisture though.

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Even that has trended poorly today on models. I think I’m escaping this pattern without any snowflakes. 

Yeah, haven't seen a single flake-- a shame when just fifty miles north there was some legitimate winter fun.

Does this mean we're finally due!? 

[snow_wizard]

The weeklies actually show a trough here in early January.  Is it possible?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The weeklies actually show a trough here in early January.  Is it possible?

Would be WILD

[TT-SEA]

Cool pic from the valley floor in Issaquah... you can see how low the trees are flocked in background.    

[snow_wizard]

One way the GFS is useful is when it shows ridiculous amounts of snow it's a decent bet there will be some snow at least.  You just have to apply a huge correction to it.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

One way the GFS is useful is when it shows ridiculous amounts of snow it's a decent bet there will be some snow at least.  You just have to apply a huge correction to it.

This is a good point.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would be surprised if we end up with a warm December. As mentioned the CFS has recently gone off the rails for a warm January. On the other hand it had been consistent for a cool December. On a positive note, it has been very cold for February and March as of late. 

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weeklies actually show a trough here in early January.  Is it possible?

I figure if the east coast gets cold the second half of december there is a decent chance of a shift back to us in Jan.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z gfs still looking good for some snow for a large area around the sound.

[Cold Snap]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The latter ain't going to happen there.

Yeah definitely. Weather.com can be so weird with the precip types sometimes. They seem to do good on temps at least in the 5 day range.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Also trending further north with the sunday moisture moving up from the south.

[TacomaWx]

34/29 temp spread so far today Brrrr. Might climb up to 35 or 36 in the next hour but that’s still very solid. DP is 29 so still not a lot of melting has occurred. 

[westcoastexpat]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One way the GFS is useful is when it shows ridiculous amounts of snow it's a decent bet there will be some snow at least.  You just have to apply a huge correction to it.

I'm not so sure, I find the GFS has significant resolution issues for the PNW and handles lowland snow rather poorly (at least when precip type is a factor)

It was easily the worst model for this recent event in Vancouver 

[TacomaWx]

Here in Tacoma for the system Friday we’re riding a very fine line on the cutoff zone. Euro had 3” on its latest run and the gfs had 1”. Should see some flakes fly here but we will see what happens my expectations for Friday are pretty low IMBY and even lower for Sunday.