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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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We shall see soon enough if the good model runs today are real or not.  Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF both delivered today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I find it hard that western New York doesn’t have snow cover. 

About all they've had is the Lake Effect event and that was isolated.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF says low clouds fill in everywhere this evening and stay until Thursday. 

Low clouds are already pretty thick here... much more melting happening then when it was sunny and the same temperature on Saturday.  

 

Definitely noticed my snow got vaporized pretty quick this afternoon when the fog rolled in, even as the air temperature dropped.

High of 38 today here and my snow is pretty well gone. Kept a snowball in the freezer a la Mossman in case this is it for the season.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely noticed my snow got vaporized pretty quick this afternoon when the fog rolled in, even as the air temperature dropped.

High of 38 today here and my snow is pretty well gone. Kept a snowball in the freezer a la Mossman in case this is it for the season.

Oh ye of little faith. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Soupy air is on its way north.    

ECMWF shows dewpoints in the mid to upper 30 up there tomorrow as well.   It was very gunky and drippy here today.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-dew2m_f-0371200.png

Guess I better enjoy tonight then, currently 32.2 with a DP of 31. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time.

Looks like we got into the upper 40s in the Washington County banana belt. Pretty sunny too

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty.

Experienced that once during the 2010 series of Mid-Atlantic storms on the East Coast. 4 feet of snow between three blizzards back to back to back. It was an incredible experience---one that I hope anyone who loves snow gets to enjoy at least once in a lifetime.

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1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Anyone seeing any flurries up in the north sound? 

We’ve had off and on flurries here. Solid frost cover on top of the dusting of snow we got a few days ago. 32*. Been nice here lately. Cold, mostly clear with some high clouds. Feels like winter. Like December should feel. 

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20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Are Y'all ready for this? No #DeathRidgeDecember !

 

Uh uh last time you hashtagged something you willed a bunch of ridges into existence so I'll be working against this manifestation thank you very much 😅🤧

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time.

Yes worked in Portland, pretty much sunny start to finish.  And ya, right around SR-500 was the change to cloud cover.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip blossoming on the radar around Everett and to the southeast of there.

Only nearby mPING report so far is near Monroe with a drizzle... and it's 32/33 there. Not fun.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Uh uh last time you hashtagged something you willed a bunch of ridges into existence so I'll be working against this manifestation thank you very much 😅🤧

I was afraid that the Hashtag would age poorly, it could do it again!

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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10 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Yes worked in Portland, pretty much sunny start to finish.  And ya, right around SR-500 was the change to cloud cover.

 

31 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time.

Big difference? That’s 7 degrees total. 

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested).

I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below.

Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation.

For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below.

Seattle

In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range.

1449711519_ScreenShot2022-12-05at6_31_12PM.png.137649e9b0dbb2c5d1f14cb767e55d46.png

Bellingham

Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range.

1378838555_ScreenShot2022-12-05at6_23_01PM.png.d0bd283c48446f3e0210f9f7fb847cf6.png

Olympia

Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range.

1683414376_ScreenShot2022-12-05at6_29_07PM.png.b27054c7f5d4870112aec1efbcc9ec93.png

This is an amazing analysis! I'm surprised that 2016 was one of the most fall-like. That had a very warm November.

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3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Anyone in the mood for some warm light snow on Thursday night? 00z NAM is. 

snku_acc.us_state_wa (4).png

I’m in the blue!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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