PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How?

I think I remember seeing maps of just complete blocking over the high latitudes like that rather than just an Alaska block. I don't know though

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

26 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

This may have already been brought up but have seen it mention the last week was the coldest week in 78 years of record keeping for Seattle? That can’t be right. 

NWS Seattle tweeted that out a few days ago, so it is correct.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

 

[MWG]

Still cloudy and 32F! I wonder if it's going to clear up at all before the rain comes tonight. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

12z sez january cums early!

What's the new date for New Year's Eve? 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's the new date for New Year's Eve? 

Your mom

[AlTahoe]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Caught this lil’ scamp trying to break into the garage. Apparently he got a look at the ensembles.

Covering those feet up with shoes. What a prude! 

[bainbridgekid]

48 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

This may have already been brought up but have seen it mention the last week was the coldest week in 78 years of record keeping for Seattle? That can’t be right. 

Coldest week of those exact dates.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

NWS Seattle tweeted that out a few days ago, so it is correct.

Not as impressive as PDX having their hottest week on record at the end of July… Ever, not just some cherry picked dates. 

[Nov1985]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Last several runs keep getting colder in the longer range. Lots more cold members now.

Something brewing?

 

I think the "higher resolution ensembles" enhancement still only spans the first 6 days. I believe after that the EC ensembles still aren't high enough resolution to account for the Cascade mountain range very well. i.e. they still tend to drop into cold abyss after the first week. With that in mind, the long range mean actually looks kinda warm! 

EDIT - only just realized this fcst was for Eugene... 

[SnarkyGoblin]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Coldest week of those exact dates.

This makes much more sense.

[HuskyMaestro]

A little detail but I've noticed most active members here have joined in the winter while others in the fall. I can't be the only summer baby, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I think the "higher resolution ensembles" enhancement still only spans the first 6 days. I believe after that the EC ensembles still aren't high enough resolution to account for the Cascade mountain range very well. i.e. they still tend to drop into cold abyss after the first week. With that in mind, the long range mean actually looks kinda warm! 

EDIT - only just realized this fcst was for Eugene... 

Definitely will not be sub-freezing highs south of 46N.

[Nov1985]

18z GFS peak snow depth Saturday morning is up by 0.2". 

[MWG]

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

Beautiful. 

[Doinko]

18z is a lot different

 

[Cloud]

I had to see it to believe it. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

18z is a lot different

 

I thought I had until day 9-10 to be buzzed but each frame day 6+ I’ve had to chug half a beer to keep up

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here comes a WARNING SHOT.

[joelgombiner]

8 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

18z GFS peak snow depth Saturday morning is up by 0.2". 

Central Washington gets buried. 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

18z is a lot different

 

Block appears to be in a much better spot Days 6-8 on the 18z.

[Cloud]

GFS wants to deliver so bad at day 7... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That cutoff is stalling the southern push of arctic air by hour 180. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, MWG said:

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

Medford is statistically the foggiest town in the Pacific Northwest (where “foggiest” is defined as “greatest number of days with fog observed”).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NOPE. 

Down, but not out. We'll see where the run goes from here. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Deweydog]

570’s over Anchorage.

[Doinko]

Big Portland ice storm on this run

 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

570’s over Anchorage.

Teleconnections!

[Terreboner]

Druncle has a good old fashioned snowstorm for the entire region if that low can dip about 150 miles south.  It's a monster snowstorm over here how it sits now!!

Edit:  for the 16th/17th

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Big Portland ice storm on this run

 

Followed by a huge dumping of snow

 

[snow_wizard]

Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

I'm sure everyone noticed that 18z GFS is back to showing snow nonetheless.

[TT-SEA]

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Druncle has a good old fashioned snowstorm for the entire region if that low can dip about 150 miles south.  It's a monster snowstorm over here how it sits now!!

Edit:  for the 16th/17th

Massive snow/ice storm for Portland too. 1.5" of ice followed by 10" of snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Block is a little skinny, but reading the tea leaves this could be LARGE 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF agree today will be the "warmest" day in a while.  Even at that it's still below normal.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Massive snow/ice storm for Portland too. 1.5" of ice followed by 10" of snow

Everyone gets the goods! First great run, many more to come a suspect.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   

Looks much too dry.  It’ll be much snowier than it’s indicating

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Followed by a huge dumping of snow

 

1884 repeat.

[Slushy Inch]

RELOAD. DEC 2008 redux please

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   

Thanks Nostradamus.  We wouldn’t be here if we weren’t all degenerates 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and ECMWF agree today will be the "warmest" day in a while.  Even at that it's still below normal.

Would be nice to see a 50-free month. 

[Doinko]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

RELOAD

Wonder what crazy low temps the GooFuS will show with 10" of snow on the ground at Portland and an impending Arctic airmass

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be nice to see a 50-free month. 

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Doinko said:

Wonder what crazy low temps the GooFuS will show with 10" of snow on the ground at Portland and an impending Arctic airmass

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

[Doinko]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

Yeah I think SeaTacs record low is 0? and Portlands is -3 both from 1950. Though the easy access to east wind probably could keep it warmer a lot of nights. Salem and Eugene's record lows are -12! From December 1972.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

[Slushy Inch]

Big Seattle snowstorm.

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

Didn't Portland have a 64/60 day on Christmas at some point or something ridiculous like that? I'm not sure about the year though