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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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48 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

This may have already been brought up but have seen it mention the last week was the coldest week in 78 years of record keeping for Seattle? That can’t be right. 

Coldest week of those exact dates.

D514E294-72F4-4F15-8A30-BE85E4B0DB35.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 82.5"

2022-23: 15"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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  • Longtimer
21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

NWS Seattle tweeted that out a few days ago, so it is correct.

Not as impressive as PDX having their hottest week on record at the end of July… Ever, not just some cherry picked dates. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Last several runs keep getting colder in the longer range. Lots more cold members now.

Something brewing?

268EE5F6-1FEC-4038-B938-B3497C6667BC.png

 

I think the "higher resolution ensembles" enhancement still only spans the first 6 days. I believe after that the EC ensembles still aren't high enough resolution to account for the Cascade mountain range very well. i.e. they still tend to drop into cold abyss after the first week. With that in mind, the long range mean actually looks kinda warm! 

EDIT - only just realized this fcst was for Eugene... 

 

 

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  • Longtimer
24 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I think the "higher resolution ensembles" enhancement still only spans the first 6 days. I believe after that the EC ensembles still aren't high enough resolution to account for the Cascade mountain range very well. i.e. they still tend to drop into cold abyss after the first week. With that in mind, the long range mean actually looks kinda warm! 

EDIT - only just realized this fcst was for Eugene... 

Definitely will not be sub-freezing highs south of 46N.

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, MWG said:

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

image.png.25376e74dc7ca286e2ba3c6de5113349.png

Beautiful. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Here comes a WARNING SHOT.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_28.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

18z is a lot different

500h_anom.na.png

 

500h_anom.na.png

Block appears to be in a much better spot Days 6-8 on the 18z.

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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  • Longtimer

That cutoff is stalling the southern push of arctic air by hour 180. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, MWG said:

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

image.png.25376e74dc7ca286e2ba3c6de5113349.png

Medford is statistically the foggiest town in the Pacific Northwest (where “foggiest” is defined as “greatest number of days with fog observed”).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer

NOPE. 

Down, but not out. We'll see where the run goes from here. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

I'm sure everyone noticed that 18z GFS is back to showing snow nonetheless.

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  • Staff

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Druncle has a good old fashioned snowstorm for the entire region if that low can dip about 150 miles south.  It's a monster snowstorm over here how it sits now!!

Edit:  for the 16th/17th :)

Massive snow/ice storm for Portland too. 1.5" of ice followed by 10" of snow

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  • Longtimer

Block is a little skinny, but reading the tea leaves this could be LARGE 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GFS and ECMWF agree today will be the "warmest" day in a while.  Even at that it's still below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

Looks much too dry.  It’ll be much snowier than it’s indicating

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

Thanks Nostradamus.  We wouldn’t be here if we weren’t all degenerates 

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be nice to see a 50-free month. 

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

Yeah I think SeaTacs record low is 0? and Portlands is -3 both from 1950. Though the easy access to east wind probably could keep it warmer a lot of nights. Salem and Eugene's record lows are -12! From December 1972.

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

Didn't Portland have a 64/60 day on Christmas at some point or something ridiculous like that? I'm not sure about the year though

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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