PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

Okay...

 

 

[Cloud]

LR just goes dumb dumb cold... major Columbia Gorge flow for PDX. 

[RentonHill]

end of this run is gonna be straight heroin

[Doinko]

Just now, Cloud said:

LR just goes dumb dumb cold... major Columbia Gorge flow for PDX. 

And then a massive snowstorm for the Sound, sleet storm for PDX and SW WA and ice storm for the Willamette Valley

[Snownerd3000]

I guess we know what that monster in the Aleutians wants to do

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Now the clown range GFS wants to give us a sleet storm

 

 

Thanks Worm, Not you.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

end of this run is gonna be straight heroin

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

It is.

[RentonHill]

now THAT is legit for ML

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Okay...

 

 

And look at the 500mb heights, just hysterical.

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

end of this run is gonna be straight heroin

What happens when a Cat 3 hurricane meets the 516mb line? This run is off the rails more so than usual 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is.

It is.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

What happens when a Cat 3 hurricane meets the 516mb line? This run is off the rails more so than usual 

nvm gonna undercut the ridge etc but it still makes me want to do heroin (cue Jim "Heroin is bad!")

[Slushy Inch]

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Okay...

 

 

I'll show you some teens but throw sleet at you just because... 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.

It can easily be that cold in the Seattle area... it was just last December.  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.

Ok Tim…

[SnowySeeker50]

Got a replacement for once the remains of the real one melt away. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.

And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It can easily be that cold in the Seattle area... it was just last December.  

Yeah, but the warm front seems to have little effect.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Got a replacement for once the remains of the real one melt away. 

Saw a lot of these the last few days. Definitely the highest dead leaf concentration I’ve ever seen.

#wintersummerwinter2022

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining

Zr is great as long as there’s not much damage. I really enjoy it. 

[Snownerd3000]

I think the theme of the recent runs is that big changes might be on their way the 2nd half of the month

[AlTahoe]

Saturday is gonna be fun! 

NWS Reno 

Probabilities 
for 4+ feet along the Sierra crest through the duration of the 
weekend are nearing 75%, while Sierra mountain communities are 
seeing about a 75% chance of seeing accumulations near 2 feet. The 
heaviest snowfall rates are expected on Saturday thanks in part to 
the Sierra remaining on the cold side of a dynamic 130kt jet that
will push through this weekend. Snowfall rates 2-3+"/hr rates 
will be possible during this period with some lightning strikes 
not out of the question with the alignment of instability and jet 
forcing. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay then. I just now had time to look at the 12z runs. Never mind the outlandish Op runs, but the excellent improvement with the GEFS/EPS really intensifying the backdoor cold. Considerably colder. I likely will not reach freezing out here for many days with quite an east wind event/storm. This looks awesome.

 

Colder runs ahead!(c)Rob 2017 MBG(c)Rob 2016

00z GFS in 4 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 28 minutes

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining

Happened here last February. Low-mid 20s with mix of freezing rain and sleet. 12" of snow forecast became only 4-5"

[Seattle]

It's beginning to feel like the leadup to last week's event. Who's ready for the inevitable 33 degree slush! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 

That model is on crack. We would have a sufficiently deep cold layer at least in PDX metro.

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

That model is on crack. We would have sufficiently deep cold at least in PDX metro.

Wouldn't an AR warm us up pretty fast though? That's what it looks like at the end with the sleet storm at least.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 

This would cripple the region

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 

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[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Saturday is gonna be fun! 

NWS Reno 

Probabilities 
for 4+ feet along the Sierra crest through the duration of the 
weekend are nearing 75%, while Sierra mountain communities are 
seeing about a 75% chance of seeing accumulations near 2 feet. The 
heaviest snowfall rates are expected on Saturday thanks in part to 
the Sierra remaining on the cold side of a dynamic 130kt jet that
will push through this weekend. Snowfall rates 2-3+"/hr rates 
will be possible during this period with some lightning strikes 
not out of the question with the alignment of instability and jet 
forcing. 

Wow!  On another note, having read AFD's now for many years, I have noticed a change in format, and seeing this one, its apparent that it's not just my local office. 

What I'm seeing are the listing of the percentage chances of different snow amounts in specific areas.  I don't remember before hearing that kind of wording before.  They have been doing that here this winter for several different cities.  Guessing they are using ensembles.

[RentonHill]

Is this better i cant tell

[RentonHill]

these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Is this better i cant tell

Yes, 500mb pattern is much better too

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

That's a weird 500mb pattern for an arctic outbreak. Is what the EPS control run showing similar to February 2021 in some ways? I'm not sure though.

It's showing a wonky pattern so take it with a grain of salt but the general theme of high latitude blocking continues on the ensembles.

February 2021 did have nearly coast to coast cold like what this is showing. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work

[MWG]

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GEFS is no doubt about it cold for week two.  It and the EPS have really trended colder in the past few runs.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

That's a weird 500mb pattern for an arctic outbreak. Is what the EPS control run showing similar to February 2021 in some ways? I'm not sure though.

Here is a closeup of the upper level winds.  Follow the lines to see where the air is coming from and you'll understand why its showing very cold temps

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Seattle said:

It's beginning to feel like the leadup to last week's event. Who's ready for the inevitable 33 degree slush! 

Last week was pretty real actually.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GEFS is no doubt about it cold for week two.  It and the EPS have really trended colder in the past few runs.

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

[snow_wizard]

Quite remarkable to have the EPS and GEFS showing such a high chance of cold weather in the longer range.  This could be something big.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

jfc how many accounts does Tim have on here

[Guest administrator]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

Probably a non event for anyone south of the Peace Arch, so much like yourself, I am confused as to why anyone would get excited.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

Ensemble means are usually pretty reasonable.  The nature of the blocking being shown would make major cold pretty easy to pull off.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, administrator said:

Probably a non event for anyone south of the Peace Arch, so much like yourself, I am confused as to why anyone would get excited.

Is there a way we can make it illegal to post Gfs snow maps and maybe a reward program for those who post euro snow maps"

[Guest administrator]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

jfc how many accounts does Tim have on here

Mildly Pretentious Canadian Tim, Shawnigan Tim, TT "The OG" Sea, Grays Harbor Anti-Tim, Timmy, Spokane Tim, BriTim in Leavenworth, and Silver Falls Tim. That should be the whole collection.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a way we can make it illegal to post Gfs snow maps and maybe a reward program for those who post euro snow maps"

It already is. I have been reporting them to the NOAA hotline.