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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya komo left that clarification out of theirs making it sound like the coldest week ever. 

I'm curious to know which part that needed clarification? They did said coldest week in 78 years of recordkeeping, followed by 6 straight days of measurable snow. 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Didn't Portland have a 64/60 day on Christmas at some point or something ridiculous like that? I'm not sure about the year though

1980. Meanwhile the East was record cold and Boston had a -7 degree day. Terrible winter. 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'm curious to know which part that needed clarification? They did said coldest week in 78 years of recordkeeping, followed by 6 straight days of measurable snow. 

Maybe put dates in there. In the end not a big deal and still impressive to have a record cold week these days. 

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.1671667200-ugaLf0q1KAw.png

It can easily be that cold in the Seattle area... it was just last December.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous.1671667200-ugaLf0q1KAw.png

And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining😂

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1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Got a replacement for once the remains of the real one melt away. 

20221207_150527.jpg

Saw a lot of these the last few days. Definitely the highest dead leaf concentration I’ve ever seen.

#wintersummerwinter2022

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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:o Okay then. I just now had time to look at the 12z runs. Never mind the outlandish Op runs, but the excellent improvement with the GEFS/EPS really intensifying the backdoor cold. Considerably colder. I likely will not reach freezing out here for many days with quite an east wind event/storm. This looks awesome.
 
Colder runs ahead!(c)Rob 2017 MBG(c)Rob 2016
00z GFS in 4 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 28 minutes
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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining😂

Happened here last February. Low-mid 20s with mix of freezing rain and sleet. 12" of snow forecast became only 4-5"

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It's beginning to feel like the leadup to last week's event. Who's ready for the inevitable 33 degree slush! 🙃

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

Total: 5.5"

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 

AEC393D9-2673-4354-BC11-B5CB53B15ED6.jpeg

4A44826D-830A-4437-8A33-26D97591A4B4.jpeg

68E5AA17-3783-4B18-8F9F-0D088FFE995E.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Saturday is gonna be fun! 

NWS Reno 

Probabilities 
for 4+ feet along the Sierra crest through the duration of the 
weekend are nearing 75%, while Sierra mountain communities are 
seeing about a 75% chance of seeing accumulations near 2 feet. The 
heaviest snowfall rates are expected on Saturday thanks in part to 
the Sierra remaining on the cold side of a dynamic 130kt jet that
will push through this weekend. Snowfall rates 2-3+"/hr rates 
will be possible during this period with some lightning strikes 
not out of the question with the alignment of instability and jet 
forcing. 

Wow!  On another note, having read AFD's now for many years, I have noticed a change in format, and seeing this one, its apparent that it's not just my local office. 

What I'm seeing are the listing of the percentage chances of different snow amounts in specific areas.  I don't remember before hearing that kind of wording before.  They have been doing that here this winter for several different cities.  Guessing they are using ensembles.

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3 hours ago, Doinko said:

That's a weird 500mb pattern for an arctic outbreak. Is what the EPS control run showing similar to February 2021 in some ways? I'm not sure though.

It's showing a wonky pattern so take it with a grain of salt but the general theme of high latitude blocking continues on the ensembles.

February 2021 did have nearly coast to coast cold like what this is showing. 

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 95"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 30"

Coldest daily high: -21ºF

Coldest daily low: -40ºF

Number of subzero days: 17

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The 18z GEFS is no doubt about it cold for week two.  It and the EPS have really trended colder in the past few runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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