PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Skagit Weather]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I liked the 18z map way better, this is garbage. 

If this ended up verifying it would get to a ridiculous level. It makes me wonder what the biggest seasonal snowfall discrepancy ever is between my location and Seattle. But, as others have mentioned it looks pretty borderline anyways.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I got the pepto! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5 850s That's chilly

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

If this ended up verifying it would get to a ridiculous level. It makes me wonder what the biggest seasonal snowfall discrepancy ever is between my location and Seattle. But, as others have mentioned it looks pretty borderline anyways.

The GFS showed Seattle getting like 2 feet last week.    There is very little snow on the ground in Seattle right now.

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6.5 850s That's chilly

I'm skeptical with all those southerly wind vectors west of the Cascades. 

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the next storm that will dump 4-5 feet on Seattle in 36 hours!     Every trough is at least a foot of snow in Seattle... its basic climo.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Weiner Warrior]

Here comes the next storm. Going to show another 3 feet of snow seattle

 

[Doinko]

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here comes the next storm that will dump 4-5 feet on Seattle in 36 hours!     Every trough is at least a foot of snow in Seattle... its basic climo.  

 

We don't care about climo. We're here to do things that haven't been done before. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 hours ago, WildrootParable said:

I was eight years old, and I remember that storm SO well because our circular patio table looked like an angel food cake! Pretty sure when we measured it was around 22-24 inches by the time the storm was done, in our suburb north of Seattle. Pure magic. 

The hood canal did really good with that 96 storm, even being south of Seattle the cold pool was deep over here. I didn't live here at the time but a close family friend did and the depth between the 2 storms was between 34-40 inches, I have some pics somewhere I will try and find them.

[Olive1010]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Half a foot of snow in Seattle in just over 4 days.    Yep.    

Portland: 2 inches lol

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Snow for immediate PDX metro. Temps 30-32.

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The hood canal did really good with that 96 storm, even being south of Seattle the cold pool was deep over here. I didn't live here at the time but a close family friend did and the depth between the 2 storms was between 34-40 inches, I have some pics somewhere I will try and find them.

In West Seattle we probably had about 10 to 16 inches if I remember right. I also remember a lot of freezing rain before heavy snow, and then cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Darrington Troll]

Light snow and 27 degrees 

[Olive1010]

Woah that system is pretty windy.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Portland: 2 inches lol

Calm down it is the GFS a hundred hours out

[Cold Snap]

Looks like a 36/23 day for me. Currently 33. For my location this was a pretty solid cold snap. Could maybe even consider it a weak arctic blast. I had a 35/23 day on the 1st and a 36/20 day on the 2nd. And managed 33/24 on the 29th of Nov with 6.5” of snow!

[joelgombiner]

Cold in Canada.  

[TT-SEA]

The radar loop over the last 2 hours was really strange.   That precip band formed out of thin air... moved rapidly to the southwest... and then completely fell apart.  

[joelgombiner]

Seems to be a cold continent, warm ocean dynamic in play. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I got the pepto! 

I’m in the Pepto! At face value it snows everyday Thursday evening through Monday. Some periods of rain mixed in too. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Phishy Wx]

somehow the 'new' GFS is worse than the old one.

 

lol they need to hack/reverse engineer the Euro and get some pointers or hire away a couple of their Data Scientists/Programmers/Developers

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The radar loop over the last 2 hours was really strange.   That precip band formed out of thin air... moved rapidly to the southwest... and then completely fell apart.  

That was odd. There were some stratiform clouds tonight and the sky seemed fairly bright/reflective when I was out on a run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Another great run for the Foothills/Cascades.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

somehow the 'new' GFS is worse than the old one.

 

lol they need to hack/reverse engineer the Euro and get some pointers or hire away a couple of their Data Scientists/Programmers/Developers

It really is worse.   It basically assumes the accumulating snow temperature is around 40 degrees.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[FroYoBro]

Let's break some snow records in the Cascades this winter.

 

CMON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Olive1010]

Is there a 500-1000 mb thickness parameter on gfs or any models?

[joelgombiner]

Current conditions of the polar vortex. You can see how it's split into a large lobe over Russia and secondary one NE Canada. The cold is close by. 

Bipolar 

[TT-SEA]

For comparison... here is the 00Z ICON and 00Z GEM through next Tuesday.      

[Gradient Keeper]

Icy for PDX

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Icy for PDX

Ice forms between 40-45 degrees per the GFS.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Olive1010]

Saturday GFS 12z PDX???

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Ice forms between 40-45 degrees per the GFS.   

Temps are 30-32 with east wind

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Is there a 500-1000 mb thickness parameter on gfs or any models?