PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

That's a weird 500mb pattern for an arctic outbreak. Is what the EPS control run showing similar to February 2021 in some ways? I'm not sure though.

Here is a closeup of the upper level winds.  Follow the lines to see where the air is coming from and you'll understand why its showing very cold temps

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Seattle said:

It's beginning to feel like the leadup to last week's event. Who's ready for the inevitable 33 degree slush! 

Last week was pretty real actually.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GEFS is no doubt about it cold for week two.  It and the EPS have really trended colder in the past few runs.

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

[snow_wizard]

Quite remarkable to have the EPS and GEFS showing such a high chance of cold weather in the longer range.  This could be something big.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

jfc how many accounts does Tim have on here

[Guest administrator]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

Probably a non event for anyone south of the Peace Arch, so much like yourself, I am confused as to why anyone would get excited.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

Ensemble means are usually pretty reasonable.  The nature of the blocking being shown would make major cold pretty easy to pull off.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, administrator said:

Probably a non event for anyone south of the Peace Arch, so much like yourself, I am confused as to why anyone would get excited.

Is there a way we can make it illegal to post Gfs snow maps and maybe a reward program for those who post euro snow maps"

[Guest administrator]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

jfc how many accounts does Tim have on here

Mildly Pretentious Canadian Tim, Shawnigan Tim, TT "The OG" Sea, Grays Harbor Anti-Tim, Timmy, Spokane Tim, BriTim in Leavenworth, and Silver Falls Tim. That should be the whole collection.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a way we can make it illegal to post Gfs snow maps and maybe a reward program for those who post euro snow maps"

It already is. I have been reporting them to the NOAA hotline.

[Deweydog]

Six years ago RIGHT NOW it was becoming quite breezy and chilly!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ensemble means are usually pretty reasonable.  The nature of the blocking being shown would make major cold pretty easy to pull off.

I have found that adding 10°F to GFS modeled cold snap temperatures yields a reasonably accurate forecast. (It came out right on the nose for both the recent event and the one late last December.)

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a way we can make it illegal to post Gfs snow maps and maybe a reward program for those who post euro snow maps"

I can't figure out why they didn't fix the snow problem on the upgrade.  The snowfall maps are much better when very cold air is entrenched over the region of course.  Just eyeballing the 500mb pattern I think the initial trough is going to fall short of bringing much snow.  The stuff next week gets a lot more interesting.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Six years ago RIGHT NOW it was becoming quite breezy and chilly!

wow!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have found that adding 10°F to GFS modeled cold snap temperatures yields a reasonably accurate forecast. (It came out right on the nose for both the recent event and the one late last December.)

I think we are talking about two different models.  I'm referring to the ensemble mean.  FWIW the EPS is showing high temps dropping to just above freeing during week two as well.  It has been trending colder every run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't figure out why they didn't fix the snow problem on the upgrade.  The snowfall maps are much better when very cold air is entrenched over the region of course.  Just eyeballing the 500mb pattern I think the initial trough is going to fall short of bringing much snow.  The stuff next week gets a lot more interesting.

My guess is that they tried to but it proved harder than expected.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

wow!

That pattern doesn't look cold at all.  It actually was pretty chilly at that time.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That pattern doesn't look cold at all.  It actually was pretty chilly at that time.

We had a nice 1-2" of snow and some ice with the event on 12/8/16. And then another ~3" on 12/14/16

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My guess is that they tried to but it proved harder than expected.

I think the important thing is whether the upgrade will give us more reliable 500mb maps, 850mb temp maps, and surface pressure maps.  People on here know to decipher that for snow chances.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That pattern doesn't look cold at all.  It actually was pretty chilly at that time.

WSW-worthy for us. Wasn’t trying to poke the Puget bear, but apparently I did.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

WSW-worthy for us. Wasn’t trying to poke the Puget bear, but apparently I did.

You misunderstood.  It actually was cold here with some frozen precip.   I was just commenting on how the map that was posted looked misleading.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

WSW-worthy for us. Wasn’t trying to poke the Puget bear, but apparently I did.

 just feed it cocaine and all will be well

[snow_wizard]

It's interesting to note the GEFS control model has had 4 cold runs in a row now with 850s dropping into the -10 to -15 range.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

After this last week, my friends wouldn't listen to me anyways...

I have no friends after last week.  Barely have a family now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have fun with all your snow while TWL and I enjoy 33 degree rain!

[snow_wizard]

CPC is sold.

[Doinko]

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

huge downgrade in long range for GEFS. bummer. 

 

OK ill stop sorry but i had to keep my daughter home all day shes super sick and she finally went down for nap during druncle and well i guess i just got a little too into it. 

The closer range stuff is colder than any previous run.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The closer range stuff is colder than any previous run.

Thanks, Jim. I deleted. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

CPC is sold.

Fake cold?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fake cold?

The GEFS and EPS have looked pretty real the last couple of runs.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

[TT-SEA]

For @MR.SNOWMIZER and @ShawniganLake here is the 18Z ECMWF for the Saturday system.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Plz nothing to exciting until the 20th. Thanks. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and ECMWF agree today will be the "warmest" day in a while.  Even at that it's still below normal.

SEA has seen just 3 above normal days since 10/31. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

Could well be.  No doubt something weird is going on.  As I've mentioned before the 1920s and 1930s had some crazy stuff, but this is even more crazy in some ways.  Some people have speculated the solar grand minimum may result in a lot more amplified regimes than we have seen in recent times.

Just to clarify the solar grand minimum is multiple cycles of abnormally low sunspot activity.  It is not to be confused with the 11 year cycle.

My only problem with having these well defined seasons is the hot summers are very hard on the Cascade glaciers.  Other than that it's pretty interesting.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

CPC is sold.

And they made that without input of the 12z EPS.  And that's because it wasn't out yet when they made the forecast. 

[Nov1985]

39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good chance it’s right about another cold spell. Also a good chance it will be nowhere near as cold as it alleges.

I hope so. The next 8 days look to be low to mid 40s in most of western WA. We'll be ready for another cold spell by the 2nd half of the month. We can all log off here today and return on Friday Dec 16th. 

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I have no friends after last week.  Barely have a family now.

That's what the forecasting lyfe is all about

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For @MR.SNOWMIZER and @ShawniganLake here is the 18Z ECMWF for the Saturday system.

This first trough isn't going to get the job done except for maybe west of Puget Sound.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

I hope so. The next 8 days look to be low to mid 40s in most of western WA. We'll be ready for another cold spell by the 2nd half of the month. We can all log off here today and return on Friday Dec 16th. 

It's actually going to get gradually colder even in the near term.

[Meatyorologist]

I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SEA has seen just 3 above normal days since 10/31. 

Crazy.  

I am starting to wonder if next summer will be even more insane in terms of warmth.   

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crazy.  

I am starting to wonder if next summer will be even more insane in terms of warmth.   

I really hope not.

[Terreboner]

Very little snow melt here today once again.  Only off of the trees and bushes out of the shade.  38.7/18.8 day, currently 33.6.

 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

Wacky pattern? As in the huge ridge bridge, that's been advertised for a while now.

[Deweydog]

I’m always blown away by our dog’s ability to turn on my wife’s electric blanket.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

15 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

What I've noticed as much if not more than extreme anomalies is that patterns seem to lock in for such a long time.  Summer aside where rain doesn't happen much even on cooler Summers, it seems like other seasons would have a patten change every week or so. 

Now patterns just seem to get stuck.  Which could be why Seattle set a record for the biggest temperature difference one month to another October to November.  One month of pretty much every day being warmer than normal and then another month of pretty much every day colder than normal. 

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually going to get gradually colder even in the near term.

If you exclude GFS forecasts (usually a good idea), it will be in the low to mid 40s every day going forward around Seattle, Everett, Tacoma area until Dec 16 or 17th. Still a couple of degrees below normal, especially after this weekend's big warmup.