PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't figure out why they didn't fix the snow problem on the upgrade.  The snowfall maps are much better when very cold air is entrenched over the region of course.  Just eyeballing the 500mb pattern I think the initial trough is going to fall short of bringing much snow.  The stuff next week gets a lot more interesting.

Something big is coming. But it might be brutal cold and dry or a bad wind storm i just believe something major will hit us this winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For @MR.SNOWMIZER and @ShawniganLake here is the 18Z ECMWF for the Saturday system.

Thanks Tim, Could you post total precip? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thanks Tim, Could you post total precip? 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This first trough isn't going to get the job done except for maybe west of Puget Sound.

And even that is going to be a close call. 

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Wacky pattern? As in the huge ridge bridge, that's been advertised for a while now.

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

So if it's off on the temp there will be much more snow. Plenty of moisture.

[snow_wizard]

The incredible cold just continues in the Okanogan.  A number of places had highs in the teens over there today.  Amazing this might be just the appetizer for them.

[Nov1985]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And even that is going to be a close call. 

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

38 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

Part of me thinks the atmosphere already knew Tonga was coming when we hit 116 in June 2021

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So if it's off on the temp there will be much more snow. Plenty of moisture.

You have a somewhat realistic chance of scoring with this.   Most places not so much.  Too bad the trough is going to dig so far west.  Starting next week though the cold really settles in here.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

It's going to be fine overall.  The professional mets are already commenting on the next round of cold coming.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Has been a fairly chilly last couple days. 41/33 yesterday and 40/37 today. Temps peaked around noon or so today and it’s been in the upper 30s most of the afternoon.

Lots of clouds the last few days but just enough breaks to make for some interesting skies.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

And by extension, our collective mental health.

[RentonHill]

Full moon tonight. Anything can happen for tonight’s runs…

[Olive1010]

Woah, chill, weather channel for PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

But Andrew is bored

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But Andrew is bored

No I am actually just pointing out a demonstrable fact. I wouldn't discount advanced machine learning AI either, I heard those things can read our minds. 

[Meatyorologist]

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

Big woop

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I think you will do well the end of next week.  Looks like some cold air already in place with light offshore breezes as that low moves towards us.  I'm hoping it comes in around Florence :).  I know, lots could change but I'm feeling middle to end of next week.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

[snow_wizard]

On 12/5/2022 at 7:13 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow is really not melting much here, it's so dense that the melt is very slow. Still 11.5 inches on the ground. High  today was only 34.

That stuff could last a long time this winter.  I'm sure your high would have been at least 5 degrees warmer without snow.

[HuskyMaestro]

An almost left-turn accident disaster ruined my mood for model riding tonight. Near Lakewood when I was in the right of way, some d*uche from a side street saw me coming and still decided to go for a left turn at the last second and I was bare inches away from crashing into his left rear after blaring my horn and braking just in time. Unbelievable how these people can blissfully move on with their lives after this. I just keep replaying the scenario in my head on what could have happened, lucky to escape unscathed but still. 

I’m gonna need a synced full-fledged arctic snowstorm that lasts 2+ weeks on the GFS and Euro to make up for today.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Rumor has it some places were in the minus teens in the Puget Sound region in January 1893 and I believe NW OR did -20 somewhere in January 1930.  So those number are on the edge of possible.  Not in Seattle proper though IMO.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I don't think such a N/S gradient would be possible. In order to get that kind of cold we would need a true body-blow PV advection; some kind of duo ridge tag-team to really blast a deep lobe of air so intense it would run well below average even north of the Arctic circle. If it got hung up at the border, the best we could do would be a Dec 1968 style event.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Who pays the AWSbills?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have a somewhat realistic chance of scoring with this.   Most places not so much.  Too bad the trough is going to dig so far west.  Starting next week though the cold really settles in here.

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

[snow_wizard]

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

No doubt the dry snow events are much more enjoyable.  The stuff you currently have makes a great base though.

[T-Town]

 

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

If we could get an Alaska block to lock in the sweet spot for that long I could definitely see that happening. I always wonder how Feb 2019 would have gone had that set up happened during early Jan. I feel like I would have had some single digit lows during that. I had two 10 degree mins during that.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

It’s been almost nineteen years since we’ve had snow falling at that temperature here. Came close in 2008 and 2014.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For @MR.SNOWMIZER and @ShawniganLake here is the 18Z ECMWF for the Saturday system.

A skiff here.  I’m actually hoping we thaw out for a bit before it gets cold again.  I have a bunch of half finished fall cleanup jobs buried in snow. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I’m always blown away by our dog’s ability to turn on my wife’s electric blanket.

37 out right now.

That's gonna feel like Acapulco in about 192 hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Judahs learning machine model can suck on this tweet. 
 

 

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

You know you upgraded to the learning models.

[Terreboner]

Snyder must be sick.  No video from him today, I know you are all very upset!!!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

[Iceresistance]

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This would cripple the region

Not to mention the Friday before Christmas.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

Oh yeah.

In fact, their coldest high since 2014 is 28. A streak of 3225 days (soon to be 3226 ) .

Next longest 28+ streak was 2193 days from January 1943 to January 1949. Obvious analog.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Snyder must be sick.  No video from him today, I know you are all very upset!!!

Hes been tweeting photos from Hawaii.  He didn't outright say he was there, but he's there. 

[SnowHawks]

1968 had a huge block that sent Arctic air into the Pacific Northwest. A huge regionwide snow followed by almost a month of sub freezing highs. I remember Harry Wampler explaining how unusual this was. I may be wrong but it was an El Nino year.