PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SouthHillFrosty]

In all fairness, the GFS led the way the whole time last week…. No reason it can’t this week 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Temps are 30-32 with east wind

There was wink in there.  

[RentonHill]

Strengthening vortex means Jan off table?? @Deweydog

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Icy for PDX

That low pressure system goes too far north. The Euro track is better at this point but obviously it's a while away

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

which category

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

which category

Drums 

[Deweydog]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Strengthening vortex means Jan off table?? @Deweydog

Hell no.

I really at this point don’t think blocking will ever be too far away this winter.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

In all fairness, the GFS led the way the whole time last week…. No reason it can’t this week 

So Seattle had 2 feet of snow last week and Portland had half a foot on Sunday?    

No doubt there will be lowland snow... but the GFS definitely has issues with total snowfall.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, JSnowlin said:

Drums 

I think the GFS needs to be sent back to the beat laboratory for some more tweaks.

[Olive1010]

The gfs  is pointing to snow at 46 degrees, wow

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So Seattle had 2 feet of snow last week and Portland had half a foot on Sunday?    

There was a daily snowfall record and snowfalls streak record set. The theme of anomalous snowfall verified. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Drums 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

There was a daily snowfall record and snowfalls streak record set. The theme of anomalous snowfall verified. 

I agree... the same theme should continue.    But its really strange that the "upgrade" has made the snow maps even more ridiculous.

[snow_wizard]

Tons of potential on tonight's GFS run.  Safe to say there will be more lowland snow over the next week.

[Olive1010]

I mean GFS usually overdoes cold air, does ECMWF ever overdo cold air as much as GFS?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree... the same theme should continue.    But its really strange that the "upgrade" has made the snow maps even more ridiculous.

That is strange.  I guess it's just something we have to live with.  All I know is when the snowfall amounts are over the top we get at least some snow.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

I mean GFS usually overdoes cold air, does ECMWF ever overdo cold air as much as GFS?

Probably not quite as much.

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It really is worse.   It basically assumes the accumulating snow temperature is around 40 degrees.    

Can you just imagine if it was?? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That is strange.  I guess it's just something we have to live with.  All I know is when the snowfall amounts are over the top we get at least some snow.

It would be nice to have snow maps that are meaningful after the upgrade.   Oh well.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Can you just imagine if it was?? 

Seattle would be as snowy as Valdez!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS showed Seattle getting like 2 feet last week.    There is very little snow on the ground in Seattle right now.

But the icon probably shown none as it always does. I think 10-15 % of what the gfs shows would end up being a good forecast.

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive how cold the mins got last night north of Seattle.  The line of gunk and milder mins was very distinct.

[MossMan]

Cliff! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/12/how-can-we-predict-climate-50-years.html?m=1

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tons of potential on tonight's GFS run.  Safe to say there will be more lowland snow over the next week.

Probably the more usual suspects this time around. Doesn't look like quite enough cold to deliver much below 4-500', but you never know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don’t understand the negativity on here tonight. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

But the icon probably shown none as it always does. I think 10-15 % of what the gfs shows would end up being a good forecast.

With Arctic air in place that wouldn't work obviously.

[Terreboner]

At least the GFS is throwing out an "Olive" branch.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably the more usual suspects this time around. Doesn't look like quite enough cold to deliver much below 4-500', but you never know.

Glad I’m at 580’! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don’t understand the negativity on here tonight. 

I'm quite optimistic.  The GFS takes us back to cold offshore or northerly surface gradients with a lot of snow chances.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably the more usual suspects this time around. Doesn't look like quite enough cold to deliver much below 4-500', but you never know.

The numbers are pretty similar to this past week IMO.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

That band of precip has re-strengthened over Seattle.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm quite optimistic.  The GFS takes us back to cold offshore or northerly surface gradients with a lot of snow chances.

I want to believe but the subconscious feeling is nagging at me that we're gonna be teased all winter long with borderline conditions.

[Olive1010]

is this an easterly wind? Through the gorge?

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/12/how-can-we-predict-climate-50-years.html?m=1

His argument holds some water, but they have no idea if some X factor will change 10 years from now and throw a monkey wrench into everything beyond that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend) trending colder.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

is this an easterly wind? Through the gorge?

Indeed it is 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I want to believe but the subconscious feeling is nagging at me that we're gonna be teased all winter long with borderline conditions.

A lot of places did pretty well over the past week.  Besides that I think something very legit will happen eventually.

[Olive1010]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend) trending colder.

But thats still a cold onshore flow right?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

But thats still a cold onshore flow right?

Correct.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I like our chances for this week tbh. I think favored areas around Seattle could get 3-6in