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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

It's going to be fine overall.  The professional mets are already commenting on the next round of cold coming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But Andrew is bored ;)

No I am actually just pointing out a demonstrable fact. I wouldn't discount advanced machine learning AI either, I heard those things can read our minds. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.00"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 17

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I think you will do well the end of next week.  Looks like some cold air already in place with light offshore breezes as that low moves towards us.  I'm hoping it comes in around Florence :).  I know, lots could change but I'm feeling middle to end of next week.

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Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.00"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 17

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On 12/5/2022 at 7:13 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow is really not melting much here, it's so dense that the melt is very slow. Still 11.5 inches on the ground. High  today was only 34.

20221205_190750.jpg

That stuff could last a long time this winter.  I'm sure your high would have been at least 5 degrees warmer without snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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An almost left-turn accident disaster ruined my mood for model riding tonight. Near Lakewood when I was in the right of way, some d*uche from a side street saw me coming and still decided to go for a left turn at the last second and I was bare inches away from crashing into his left rear after blaring my horn and braking just in time. Unbelievable how these people can blissfully move on with their lives after this. I just keep replaying the scenario in my head on what could have happened, lucky to escape unscathed but still. 

I’m gonna need a synced full-fledged arctic snowstorm that lasts 2+ weeks on the GFS and Euro to make up for today. 😪

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Rumor has it some places were in the minus teens in the Puget Sound region in January 1893 and I believe NW OR did -20 somewhere in January 1930.  So those number are on the edge of possible.  Not in Seattle proper though IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I don't think such a N/S gradient would be possible. In order to get that kind of cold we would need a true body-blow PV advection; some kind of duo ridge tag-team to really blast a deep lobe of air so intense it would run well below average even north of the Arctic circle. If it got hung up at the border, the best we could do would be a Dec 1968 style event.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.00"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 17

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Who pays the AWSbills?

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have a somewhat realistic chance of scoring with this.   Most places not so much.  Too bad the trough is going to dig so far west.  Starting next week though the cold really settles in here.

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

No doubt the dry snow events are much more enjoyable.  The stuff you currently have makes a great base though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

If we could get an Alaska block to lock in the sweet spot for that long I could definitely see that happening. I always wonder how Feb 2019 would have gone had that set up happened during early Jan. I feel like I would have had some single digit lows during that. I had two 10 degree mins during that.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0”

Max Snow Depth - 0”

Coldest High Temp - 36F (Nov 29)

Coldest Low Temp - 25F (Nov 26 & Nov 29)

Number of Freezes - 20

Sub-40 highs - 1

Highs 32 or lower - 0

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16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

It’s been almost nineteen years since we’ve had snow falling at that temperature here. Came close in 2008 and 2014.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This would cripple the region

Not to mention the Friday before Christmas.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 0.6 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 0.6 on 12/1/2023

Most recent accumulation (non trace): same as above

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.6)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 11/30/23 (3rd)

Coldest low: 18F (11/28/23)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

Oh yeah.

In fact, their coldest high since 2014 is 28. A streak of 3225 days (soon to be 3226 😧) .

Next longest 28+ streak was 2193 days from January 1943 to January 1949. Obvious analog.

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6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

Wow hoping for a deep feeeze here as well 🤧🙏

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not to mention the Friday before Christmas.

I remember the pandemonium on 12/20/08 when the snow started flying, roads and parking lots were already the equivalent to a frozen rutted cow pasture, then new snow started falling on that compact snow and ice add in the mix of Christmas shopping and it was insane! Took me 2 hours to go 10 miles just to get to the Smokey Point Lowe’s. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Oh yeah.

In fact, their coldest high since 2014 is 28. A streak of 3225 days (soon to be 3226 😧) .

Next longest 28+ streak was 2193 days from January 1943 to January 1949. Obvious analog.

At this point it’d kinda suck not to at least make it to 5,715 and break Nolan Ryan’s record.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

I think if I had to pick my top 3 blasts to experience it would be 1) December 1919 2) January 1909 3) January 1930. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

I'll be in BARTLESVILLE next week!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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McMinnville, OR allegedly hit -24 during the December 1919 BLAST. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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