PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

It's going to be fine overall.  The professional mets are already commenting on the next round of cold coming.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Has been a fairly chilly last couple days. 41/33 yesterday and 40/37 today. Temps peaked around noon or so today and it’s been in the upper 30s most of the afternoon.

Lots of clouds the last few days but just enough breaks to make for some interesting skies.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

And by extension, our collective mental health.

[RentonHill]

Full moon tonight. Anything can happen for tonight’s runs…

[Olive1010]

Woah, chill, weather channel for PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

But Andrew is bored

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But Andrew is bored

No I am actually just pointing out a demonstrable fact. I wouldn't discount advanced machine learning AI either, I heard those things can read our minds. 

[Meatyorologist]

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

Big woop

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I think you will do well the end of next week.  Looks like some cold air already in place with light offshore breezes as that low moves towards us.  I'm hoping it comes in around Florence :).  I know, lots could change but I'm feeling middle to end of next week.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

[snow_wizard]

On 12/5/2022 at 7:13 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow is really not melting much here, it's so dense that the melt is very slow. Still 11.5 inches on the ground. High  today was only 34.

That stuff could last a long time this winter.  I'm sure your high would have been at least 5 degrees warmer without snow.

[HuskyMaestro]

An almost left-turn accident disaster ruined my mood for model riding tonight. Near Lakewood when I was in the right of way, some d*uche from a side street saw me coming and still decided to go for a left turn at the last second and I was bare inches away from crashing into his left rear after blaring my horn and braking just in time. Unbelievable how these people can blissfully move on with their lives after this. I just keep replaying the scenario in my head on what could have happened, lucky to escape unscathed but still. 

I’m gonna need a synced full-fledged arctic snowstorm that lasts 2+ weeks on the GFS and Euro to make up for today.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Rumor has it some places were in the minus teens in the Puget Sound region in January 1893 and I believe NW OR did -20 somewhere in January 1930.  So those number are on the edge of possible.  Not in Seattle proper though IMO.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I don't think such a N/S gradient would be possible. In order to get that kind of cold we would need a true body-blow PV advection; some kind of duo ridge tag-team to really blast a deep lobe of air so intense it would run well below average even north of the Arctic circle. If it got hung up at the border, the best we could do would be a Dec 1968 style event.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Who pays the AWSbills?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have a somewhat realistic chance of scoring with this.   Most places not so much.  Too bad the trough is going to dig so far west.  Starting next week though the cold really settles in here.

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

[snow_wizard]

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

No doubt the dry snow events are much more enjoyable.  The stuff you currently have makes a great base though.

[T-Town]

 

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

If we could get an Alaska block to lock in the sweet spot for that long I could definitely see that happening. I always wonder how Feb 2019 would have gone had that set up happened during early Jan. I feel like I would have had some single digit lows during that. I had two 10 degree mins during that.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly Jim the rain to snow events don't excite me like they used too. I'd take quality over quantity.  A couple inches of power for everone and 18 degrees is all we need  

It’s been almost nineteen years since we’ve had snow falling at that temperature here. Came close in 2008 and 2014.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think Tim’s pipes burst just at the thought of that one 12z Euro verifying last December. 

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For @MR.SNOWMIZER and @ShawniganLake here is the 18Z ECMWF for the Saturday system.

A skiff here.  I’m actually hoping we thaw out for a bit before it gets cold again.  I have a bunch of half finished fall cleanup jobs buried in snow. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I’m always blown away by our dog’s ability to turn on my wife’s electric blanket.

37 out right now.

That's gonna feel like Acapulco in about 192 hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Judahs learning machine model can suck on this tweet. 
 

 

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW we could make up for June 2021 with a long duration / extreme cold event also.  We have had much longer sustained bouts of cold than extreme heat in the past.  Something like 10 days of highs in the 20s and lows of 5 to 20.

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

You know you upgraded to the learning models.

[Terreboner]

Snyder must be sick.  No video from him today, I know you are all very upset!!!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

[Iceresistance]

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This would cripple the region

Not to mention the Friday before Christmas.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only six sub 25 degree highs sprinkled in there, and of course none since 2014 which I imagine is an unprecedented stretch.  

Oh yeah.

In fact, their coldest high since 2014 is 28. A streak of 3225 days (soon to be 3226 ) .

Next longest 28+ streak was 2193 days from January 1943 to January 1949. Obvious analog.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Snyder must be sick.  No video from him today, I know you are all very upset!!!

Hes been tweeting photos from Hawaii.  He didn't outright say he was there, but he's there. 

[SnowHawks]

1968 had a huge block that sent Arctic air into the Pacific Northwest. A huge regionwide snow followed by almost a month of sub freezing highs. I remember Harry Wampler explaining how unusual this was. I may be wrong but it was an El Nino year.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

Wow hoping for a deep feeeze here as well

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not to mention the Friday before Christmas.

I remember the pandemonium on 12/20/08 when the snow started flying, roads and parking lots were already the equivalent to a frozen rutted cow pasture, then new snow started falling on that compact snow and ice add in the mix of Christmas shopping and it was insane! Took me 2 hours to go 10 miles just to get to the Smokey Point Lowe’s. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Oh yeah.

In fact, their coldest high since 2014 is 28. A streak of 3225 days (soon to be 3226 ) .

Next longest 28+ streak was 2193 days from January 1943 to January 1949. Obvious analog.

At this point it’d kinda suck not to at least make it to 5,715 and break Nolan Ryan’s record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland's 8 consecutive highs in the 10s in January 1909 still blows my mind.

This month it will have been 32 years since their last one.

I think if I had to pick my top 3 blasts to experience it would be 1) December 1919 2) January 1909 3) January 1930. 

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hes been tweeting photos from Hawaii.  He didn't outright say he was there, but he's there. 

Oh ya, forgot he was going there.  Makes sense now.

[Winterdog]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My water pipes can think?    Amazing.

Sure.  Haven't you ever heard of a pipe dream?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I may get the DEEP FEEEZE at the end of this month! The GFS has gone insane with below zero temperatures before Christmas!

I'll be in BARTLESVILLE next week!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

Best news all day!

[Cloud]

Fun times ahead!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

McMinnville, OR allegedly hit -24 during the December 1919 BLAST.