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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

PDX-DLS at least -12mb. High winds in the Gorge, maybe PDX metro!

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

We finally get a block in Alaska, but there is no base!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That low Saturday takes a perfect track for Hood canal. 

And even for Olympia north, would be a rain to snow transition event. This track almost always will produce snow in Puget sound even with a very marginal air mass. It would be a crushing storm for the canal.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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So Randy gets buried under a foot of snow and then we go into a cold, dry pattern.    All is right with the world again.   At least per the GFS.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Odds are very high the low will track well north of Puget sound though, extremely rare for them to take the money track like that especially at that strength.

I'm not sure it starts out from the base of the trough and swings north. Some runs on some models have shown it being even more suppressed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Interesting how that low cuts off and goes down in to California leaving us pretty chilly at the surface. Obviously GFS is probably overdoing the cold, but still definitely a below average pattern at the surface heading into the coldest time of the year. 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_37.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not sure it starts out from the base of the trough and swings north. Some runs on some models have shown it being even more suppressed. 

Yeah it's all over the place. Icon has a track similar to gfs.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting how that low cuts off and goes down in to California leaving us pretty chilly at the surface. Obviously GFS is probably overdoing the cold, but still definitely a below average pattern at the surface heading into the coldest time of the year. 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_37.png

EPS very similar with low level cold building.

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GEM has the Saturday low moving straight north into the southern tip of Vancouver Island. As a result the airmass Sunday and Monday does not get as cold either, though still not warm. 

However, the GEM drops a 2nd trough almost straight south and by Wednesday a very cold trough has settled into the region. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_35.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM has the Saturday low moving straight north into the southern tip of Vancouver Island. As a result the airmass Sunday and Monday does not get as cold either, though still not warm. 

However, the GEM drops a 2nd trough almost straight south and by Wednesday a very cold trough has settled into the region. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_35.png

This track makes more sense. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The odds of me getting another 10-14 inch storm this soon just isn't likely. But then we have Feb. 2019.

Well I’m definitely rooting for the southern track. Even though the GFS track won’t deliver snow down here Saturday morning, it leads to better things over the following 48 hours. The fact the GEM is completely different in the mid range shows this thing will fluctuate a lot before the models settle on a solution. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I’m definitely rooting for the southern track. Even though the GFS track won’t deliver snow down here Saturday morning, it leads to better things over the following 48 hours. The fact the GEM is completely different in the mid range shows this thing will fluctuate a lot before the models settle on a solution. 

The correct southern track is better for everyone and for sure colder up here. Even a track 150 miles south of Astoria can deliver a nice event to the sound .

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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There is another arctic trough booking it down the coast at the end of the GEM. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is another arctic trough booking it down the coast at the end of the GEM. 

I really believe we are entering a historical cold spell and this is just the beginning. It just feels like things will stay below average for a long time.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Northern California looks to get hit hard yet again. Seems like they are off to a good start down there this winter. 

After this next storm cycle we will be sitting pretty. Now if we can avoid the driest Jan-March ever recorded like last winter is another story. Lol 

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56 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Michael Snyders is in rout to make and official decision Randy….I have a good feeling he’s going to weigh in with a “yes!”. ❄️ 

I say No, snow most likely in the rest of the yard will be gone without a refresher.  pile is man created

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It's been a pretty impressive run of cooler than normal temps up here. I still haven't been above 40F this month and haven't been above 41F in 9 days. After today it looks like we should get closer to average for a couple days before we end up hanging out below 40F again. Unfortunately it looks like my 8 day stretch of subfreezing lows will end today, but it should start up again in a couple days.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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