PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Terreboner]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Like you, I don’t want always snowy and cold. I experienced that in my twenties at college in the northern Rockies. It got old. I think where I am is just about ideal: I reliably get a taste of winter every year, but it doesn’t stay relentlessly frigid and snowy for months on end. I would not be happy in Eugene.

P.S. TWL is in Eugene for family and health reasons. He has mentioned that here more than once. I just hope he gets the chance to take a few winter vacations in a snowy climate soon.

He may have mentioned it, but I was asking because I didn't know.  That being said, that post was more of a conversational piece because it interests me.

I plan on finding a retirement cabin in about 15-20 years when and if  I can retire.  I will go there for a fix in the winter, but I'm already feeling the cold more than I used to.  I want a warm place to stay most of the year.  I also plan on working until my body won't let me so I want a comfortable place to do so.  You stop, you die.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's funny how quickly it gets cold here on these cold nights, but doesn't really change the rest of the night. We'll see what ends up happening, but it was 26F by 5 p.m. after a high of 35F. That was a 5 degree drop in an hour. An hour and a half later it's now 27F. It might drop a degree or two the rest of the night, but I doubt it ends up much colder than right now, which is a pattern I've been noticing on cold nights this year.

Not exactly sure the mechanism for this but probably has something to do with being away from heat trapping cities which allows for rapid radiational cooling and maybe being more exposed to wind/water that keep the temperature above a certain floor.

That happens here too. Usually on a clear night in the cold season we drop quickly until about 7pm, temp stays about the same until about 3-4am and then it will drop about 3-4 degrees bottoming out around sunrise. So if it drops to say 28 by 7pm, I know the low will be in the 24-26 range. 

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It has been the case everywhere I have lived that the initial temperature drop after sundown is the steepest. Particularly in the PNW, the rate of temperature drop seems to approach zero after about five hours. At least it has every place I have lived.

Currently 25.0°F here.

It's definitely an interesting oddity. What's strange is that on clear nights my temperature tends to drop the most in the hour following sunset, and second most in the half hour on either side of sunrise. So I might drop to 25F following sunset and bounce around for the rest of the night until 7:15 a.m. (or whenever is right before sunrise). Then my temperature will seem to be making up for lost time and will drop another couple degrees.

I've tried to rationalize this two tiered drop before, but it's difficult. I understand how the low temperature can still occur after sunrise because the input radiation isn't quite equal to the output radiation, but I struggle to understand why the temperature would make this last gasp drop right as the sun rises. The only reason I can imagine is maybe because the wind drops right at sunrise or perhaps there's a sudden drop in humidity, but I really don't know.

[Terreboner]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That happens here too. Usually on a clear night in the cold season we drop quickly until about 7pm, temp stays about the same until about 3-4am and then it will drop about 3-4 degrees bottoming out around sunrise. So if it drops to say 28 by 7pm, I know the low will be in the 24-26 range. 

Then the precip clouds move in and the temp goes up 10 degrees in a half an hour, lol.  Oh, the joys of a marine climate.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

He may have mentioned it, but I was asking because I didn't know.  That being said, that post was more of a conversational piece because it interests me.

I plan on finding a retirement cabin in about 15-20 years when and if  I can retire.  I will go there for a fix in the winter, but I'm already feeling the cold more than I used to.  I want a warm place to stay most of the year.  I also plan on working until my body won't let me so I want a comfortable place to do so.  You stop, you die.

I don’t need a boss ordering me to do stuff. I will find plenty to do when I retire. Of that I am sure.

For me, the issue really is, I am stuck working until age 70 or so, because of decisions I made when younger to work less. And I am OK with that: I consciously made those decisions so I could do more outdoor stuff when I still had the strength and youth to do them, and I am glad I did. It would be hard to do some of those hikes today that I did when I was younger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Then the precip clouds move in and the temp goes up 10 degrees in a half an hour, lol.  Oh, the joys of a marine climate.

Well yeah that. Even in the winter under a cold airmass with snow it will jump up to 31-32. lol

[TacomaWx]

Down to 30 here. BLI down to 19 so a 29/19 temp spread today and it might get a little lower. That’s pretty decent. 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t need a boss ordering me to do stuff. I will find plenty to do when I retire. Of that I am sure.

For me, the issue really is, I am stuck working until age 70 or so, because of decisions I made when younger to work less. And I am OK with that: I consciously made those decisions so I could do more outdoor stuff when I still had the strength and youth to do them, and I am glad I did. It would be hard to do some of those hikes today that I did when I was younger.

What makes you think I have a boss?  I will do like I do now.  I work when I want, how I want.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Terreboner said:

What makes you think I have a boss?  I will do like I do now.  I work when I want, how I want.  

You the HVAC guy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 32 at SLE, 30 at CORNVALLIS

[RayRay]

56 minutes ago, gusky said:

Anyone got a screenshot from when Cliff called us out and then deleted the part of the blog when he was wrong?

It should be in the other thread, actually here it is…

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You the HVAC guy!

Plumber

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the 6-hour precip loop on the ECMWF... there is moisture moving north early tomorrow morning.   Appears to be a weak warm front.   Might be some flurries in the morning.    I think this is a situation in the morning where the radar shows widespread precip but very little reaches the ground.

 

[TT-SEA]

And the main batch of moisture is moving into the Seattle area by 7 p.m.

 

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down to 32 at SLE, 30 at CORNVALLIS

I just walked back from the climbing gym and it is getting pretty chilly and clear.

[North_County]

I was just outside breaking up the ice at my wife's shop, and can confirm. Probably should have worn a jacket and gloves.

[rsktkr]

Heated driveway melts snow.

[AlTahoe]

18" in 12 hours and still dumping. Saturday- Monday storm is supposed to be snowier! great start to winter 

[Terreboner]

16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Plumber

Yep, I know 3 things.  Crap runs down hill, don't chew your fingernails, and payday is on Friday.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking at the 6-hour precip loop on the ECMWF... there is moisture moving north early tomorrow morning.   Appears to be a weak warm front.   Might be some flurries in the morning.    I think is a situation where the radar shows widespread precip but very little reaches the ground.

 

Not expecting much up here. The models seem split between us getting dry slotted and straight-to-rain. It's bizarre following such a cold day. The daytime high was 32.9F here without snow cover and many places stayed well below freezing. The outflow has been quite weak, and dewpoints remained relatively high so maybe cold high was reflecting the snow cover in the Fraser Valley.

 

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM throws a little snow bone for Portland/Vancouver on Sunday morning with the initial burst of deformation precip there.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Like you, I don’t want always snowy and cold. I experienced that in my twenties at college in the northern Rockies. It got old. I think where I am is just about ideal: I reliably get a taste of winter every year, but it doesn’t stay relentlessly frigid and snowy for months on end. I would not be happy in Eugene.

P.S. TWL is in Eugene for family and health reasons. He has mentioned that here more than once. I just hope he gets the chance to take a few winter vacations in a snowy climate soon.

Yeah one thing about the Rockies I wouldn't like is so much snow in the Spring.   Early March snow is ok, but there they can and do get snow March, April, and even May. I like a mid November through February winter.

[Katzen]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I DID move to an area with lots more snow.  An area that averages maybe 7 inches a year, with some years at 0, to an area that averages 94 inches.  Love having snow on the ground and being able to xcountry ski or snowshoe within 5 minutes of my house. 

But I wasn't going to move here just for that.  There are 8-9 other months of the year where it won't snow.  And even in Winter it doesn't snow all the time.  You have to love where you live regardless of snow.  

Does the snow lose a bit of its' wonder?  Sure, a bit.  Although November and especially December snow are quite magical with the town Christmas lights.

But the opposite side of that coin is that rug pulls or forecast busts are not that big of a deal.  After all we get plenty of snow anyway.  Where a rug pull or bust in other areas might mean you have to wait a year or 2 for the next chance, and that is pretty hard to stomach. 

I also love the 4 seasons here.  Warm and dry Springs, as opposed to where I was where it rained a lot in Spring and the ground was still sopping wet.  And of course the scenery is beautiful too.

I'm fortunate because we were able to move.  We had the finances and career flexibility to make it happen.   I know a lot of people don't.  

It is fun for me to see everyone else's excitement over the snow.  And I hope all of you get good snows this winter.

BTW I've had about 25-28 inches of snow so far IMBY, and an 18 inch base.  I haven't seen my lawn since November 5th and almost certainly won't until sometime in March 

Went to High School in Leavenworth, absolutely loved the 4 seasons. Many good memories even though such a thing as a “snow day” didn’t exist for school. Would move back in a heartbeat if possible.

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM goes crazy tomorrow night...

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yeah one thing about the Rockies I wouldn't like is so much snow in the Spring.   Early March snow is ok, but there they can and do get snow March, April, and even May. I like a mid November through February winter.

Tahoe is amazing.....until May. We had a 3 day snow storm during the last week of May of this year and if snows every May. Ski resorts are closed, marinas are closed, and mt biking is still snowed in. Late spring is the worst and I usually head to Vegas that month.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Heated driveway melts snow.

Is that in McMinnville?!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Katzen said:

Went to High School in Leavenworth, absolutely loved the 4 seasons. Many good memories even though such a thing as a “snow day” didn’t exist for school. Would move back in a heartbeat if possible.

Cool!  And snow days for school are rare.  Even big snows like the one we had this week cause maybe an hours delay.   The occasional ice storm will cancel school, but thats about it.  Though school was cancelled this last January when we had 2 feet fall overnight and it was still snowing hard. 

Interesting to me to see not only schools but so much more shut down over on the west side even if it snows only a few inches.

When my wife was new to Bellingham (from Toronto), she was shocked to have a women's Christmas dinner cancelled because of a chance of rain mixed with snow and no accumulations predicted.  

And I do love our 4 seasons too.  Do you still have family here?  Hopefully someday you can move back.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Tahoe is amazing.....until May. We had a 3 day snow storm during the last week of May of this year and if snows every May. Ski resorts are closed, marinas are closed, and mt biking is still snowed in. Late spring is the worst and I usually head to Vegas that month.

 

Good for the snowpack and fire prevention, but I would probably vacation too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A couple pics from the snow this afternoon down in Silverton that were posted on the community FB page. Nice to see some places in the Willamette Valley picking up some snow. 

 

[TacomaWx]

29 now which matches our morning low. Should easily end up the coldest night of the season so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Roseburg reporting lgt snow. 

[Katzen]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Cool!  And snow days for school are rare.  Even big snows like the one we had this week cause maybe an hours delay.   The occasional ice storm will cancel school, but thats about it.  Though school was cancelled this last January when we had 2 feet fall overnight and it was still snowing hard. 

Interesting to me to see not only schools but so much more shut down over on the west side even if it snows only a few inches.

When my wife was new to Bellingham (from Toronto), she was shocked to have a women's Christmas dinner cancelled because of a chance of rain mixed with snow and no accumulations predicted.  

And I do love our 4 seasons too.  Do you still have family here?  Hopefully someday you can move back.

Had an Aunt and Uncle there up til a couple years ago and would visit them often. They have passed on but still some relatives in Cashmere.

I had snow culture shock when I moved over here for school. It snowed and I drove in for classes and everything was shut down! Didn’t even cross my mind that a few inches of snow would warrant that

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Cool!  And snow days for school are rare.  Even big snows like the one we had this week cause maybe an hours delay.   The occasional ice storm will cancel school, but thats about it.  Though school was cancelled this last January when we had 2 feet fall overnight and it was still snowing hard. 

Interesting to me to see not only schools but so much more shut down over on the west side even if it snows only a few inches.

When my wife was new to Bellingham (from Toronto), she was shocked to have a women's Christmas dinner cancelled because of a chance of rain mixed with snow and no accumulations predicted.  

And I do love our 4 seasons too.  Do you still have family here?  Hopefully someday you can move back.

I assume schools will be closed here tomorrow because there is snow on the ground.   

The Snoqualmie Valley school district goes through the same routine every year.   Early in the season they are shut down happy.    Then by later in the season they stay open through everything because they have run out of snow days.   I remember driving my kids to school in a blizzard one year... 40 mph wind whipping snow around and roads snow covered but the district was worried about going to school until almost July.  

[seattleweatherguy]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM goes crazy tomorrow night...

Must bring the moisture in farther than the other models 

[TT-SEA]

ICON through Saturday evening...

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON through Saturday evening...

 

I like the coverage on the ICON better for king 

[bainbridgekid]

18z NAM showed 0.0" here tomorrow night and the 00z gives me 7". Crazy difference in placement and strength of that deformation band. Lots to workout for tomorrow still.

[MWG]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Roseburg reporting lgt snow. 

wow! There's some chance for snow here but I think I doubt anything will fall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume schools will be closed here tomorrow because there is snow on the ground.   

The Snoqualmie Valley school district goes through the same routine every year.   Early in the season they are shut down happy.    Then by later in the season they stay open through everything because they have run out of snow days.   I remember driving my kids to school in a blizzard one year... 40 mph wind whipping snow around and roads snow covered but the district was worried about going to school until almost July.  

My daughters school is already on a 2 hour delay tomorrow. This time its the whole district due to the snow in town, but sometimes it is just her school, as it is about a mile from our house (But still part of the Silverton District.). My daughter has already had 2 snow cancellations this year and 3 two hour delays. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS time!