PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By next Sunday an atmospheric river event in W. Oregon. 

Yeah, it does kind of feel like we are due for some wet SW flow at some point this month. 

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Checking obs around my cabin and there were a -13 -14 reading. Just by past history it was probably around -20 up there.  2 feet of snow on the ground.

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

[Kayla]

Pretty nice looking Arctic air precursor pattern setting up on the long range 12z GFS.

[HuskyMaestro]

5 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

It's so tempting to just keep the kids home today. But, high school. AP classes. Honors classes. 

Sometimes I miss the easier elementary school days......

Tried to convince the little sis who I drive to UWT for her morning class to just skip for today cause I don’t wanna risk anything with black ice. It’s college, no one cares if you go or not.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Look at this bad boy Tim.  Ordered for my cabin. It's huge!! Has hand warmers and fuel injection  

[Perturbed Member]

GEM looks a lot like the GFS last night. GFS shifted a hair north. 

 

 

[jcmcgaffey]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

50 years old today!!! CRAP

Haha I turn 40 tomorrow!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

This looks familiar….

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

I'm at 3800ft but it's just a cold area. The local valley below my cabin is even colder. I have seen -10 at cabin and -25 in the little valley which is still 2500ft.

[FroYoBro]

That would be fun. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The snow intensity looks crazy 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Picking up at home.

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This looks familiar….

Wow!

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

That would be fun. 

PDX area gets precip almost constantly from hr 150-270

[FroYoBro]

Could be a pretty fun and active winter.

(Except for January)

[SnarkyGoblin]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The snow intensity looks crazy 

lol! just realized the second map is a 24h total.

oh gfs...

[MossMan]

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

Whoever left that car there... its buried!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

Go into North 40 store while you are there. My favorite store in the world. They have everything!!! It's right there about 1/2 mile from you 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The pattern overall is very active which is a good thing. Could be seeing something similar to the winter of 2016-2017 where it was active the entire winter. Bodes well for all kinds of fun. Still early but I’m sensing things are gonna be very active with lots of storms, big rain events and snow events. 

I agree. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah another great chilly trough after that AR event. Freshen up that snow pack. At the end of the run there is a ton of cold air building in NW Canada too. 

[Skagit Weather]

48 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Based on the euro vs gfs for 925mb temps later today…I’m thinking the main event today will likely be this morning. Some more precip moving in from the SW right now so more snow possible. Could get some tonight but I think this morning May end up more impressive for areas along I-5. 

I'm pretty skeptical I get anything up here. Looks like I will be in a similar drying slot to Tuesday and when the precipitation gets up here (if it does) most of the models forecast it will be too warm for snow. Which is classic, but if I've missed out three times what's a fourth time?

Temperature did get pretty cold here last night early on dropping to 21.5F before popping up to 27F by midnight. Currently a 35/29 spread.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

One of my work contacts that lives here said they just got hit day after day over the last few weeks, sounds like that is pretty unusual for this area. 

[MossMan]

At least no split flow in sight just yet!! 

[GHweatherChris]

It's over, suns out here.

[MossMan]

@Winterdog Pick up any snow this morning? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

At least no split flow in sight just yet!! 

January.

[gusky]

Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The action looks like it really ramps up between 6pm and 6am. With 10pm-4am the heaviest.

[yellowstone]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.

Only 18 inches for me in 24 hours. Throw it out!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Look at this bad boy Tim.  Ordered for my cabin. It's huge!! Has hand warmers and fuel injection  

I've used an Ariens before at my job.  Turning is so easy, you just apply a little more pressure to one of the handles and it turns effortlessly.  And I do like how it's so much easier to turn the chute from side to side.   

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

They had that really big snow on November 6th, and it hasn't warmed up since.  And of course there has been some snow since then.  

A base of about 18 inches at my house, and a bit more by the fish hatchery and the cross country ski trails there.  Altogether we have 3 areas of cross country ski trails in town.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

Santa is coming.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Snownerd3000]

11 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Only 18 inches for me in 24 hours. Throw it out!  

I love that little nose of 20ish inches that hits Woodinville.  Make it happen snow santa.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Pretty nice looking Arctic air precursor pattern setting up on the long range 12z GFS.

GEFS mean does look promising.

[Cloud]

Ton of blocking still being shown for the entire run. I don't think this pattern is going away anytime soon. 

[Cloud]

GEFS next 10 days. 

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One of my work contacts that lives here said they just got hit day after day over the last few weeks, sounds like that is pretty unusual for this area. 

There are no good long term stations for snowfall in Omak, but from what I can tell from what data there is and nearby stations, they probably average 35-40"/year there.

[Meatyorologist]

1/2" here as it's starting to melt. 33F.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By next Sunday an atmospheric river event in W. Oregon. 

A snowy AR in E WA would be legit

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There are no good long term stations for snowfall in Omak, but from what I can tell from what data there is and nearby stations, they probably average 35-40"/year there.

Pretty close. My cabin is 60-100 a year so that sounds about right. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phishy Wx]

better yet a Snowy AR followed by a backdoor Arctic blast

[....]

It's like there's an invisible force field around my place....it keeps disappearing before it reaches me! lol 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... total snow through tomorrow morning when precip is done.    

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GEFS next 10 days. 

Feel like one of those cutoffs eventually has to pinch off and get our Kona low and establish a rex for a more sustained block but we'll see.

[TT-SEA]

And the Sunday system...