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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Checking obs around my cabin and there were a -13 -14 reading. Just by past history it was probably around -20 up there.  2 feet of snow on the ground.

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

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Pretty nice looking Arctic air precursor pattern setting up on the long range 12z GFS.

image.png

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 95"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 30"

Coldest daily high: -21ºF

Coldest daily low: -40ºF

Number of subzero days: 17

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

It's so tempting to just keep the kids home today. But, high school. AP classes. Honors classes. 

Sometimes I miss the easier elementary school days......

Tried to convince the little sis who I drive to UWT for her morning class to just skip for today cause I don’t wanna risk anything with black ice. It’s college, no one cares if you go or not. 😂

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

I'm at 3800ft but it's just a cold area. The local valley below my cabin is even colder. I have seen -10 at cabin and -25 in the little valley which is still 2500ft.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This looks familiar….

E4903346-9D5F-4E00-A30D-22F787BC491F.jpeg

Wow!

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

89E4EB19-684E-4B18-9A32-B682A3F3AF0C.jpeg

Whoever left that car there... its buried!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

89E4EB19-684E-4B18-9A32-B682A3F3AF0C.jpeg

Go into North 40 store while you are there. My favorite store in the world. They have everything!!! It's right there about 1/2 mile from you 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Longtimer
32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The pattern overall is very active which is a good thing. Could be seeing something similar to the winter of 2016-2017 where it was active the entire winter. Bodes well for all kinds of fun. Still early but I’m sensing things are gonna be very active with lots of storms, big rain events and snow events. 

I agree. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Yeah another great chilly trough after that AR event. Freshen up that snow pack. At the end of the run there is a ton of cold air building in NW Canada too. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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48 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Based on the euro vs gfs for 925mb temps later today…I’m thinking the main event today will likely be this morning. Some more precip moving in from the SW right now so more snow possible. Could get some tonight but I think this morning May end up more impressive for areas along I-5. 

I'm pretty skeptical I get anything up here. Looks like I will be in a similar drying slot to Tuesday and when the precipitation gets up here (if it does) most of the models forecast it will be too warm for snow. Which is classic, but if I've missed out three times what's a fourth time?

Temperature did get pretty cold here last night early on dropping to 21.5F before popping up to 27F by midnight. Currently a 35/29 spread.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 9.25" (12/18: 0.75", 12/19: 2.5", 12/20: 6"; Trace: 11/7, 12/2, 12/21; Flakes: 11/29, 11/30, 12/1)

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

One of my work contacts that lives here said they just got hit day after day over the last few weeks, sounds like that is pretty unusual for this area. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, MossMan said:

At least no split flow in sight just yet!! 

January.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.1670954400-Vhcpfh6gpLs.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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  • Longtimer
47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Look at this bad boy Tim.  Ordered for my cabin. It's huge!! Has hand warmers and fuel injection  

20221202_083508.jpg

20221202_083502.jpg

I've used an Ariens before at my job.  Turning is so easy, you just apply a little more pressure to one of the handles and it turns effortlessly.  And I do like how it's so much easier to turn the chute from side to side.   

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4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.1670954400-Vhcpfh6gpLs.png

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

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  • Longtimer
27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

They had that really big snow on November 6th, and it hasn't warmed up since.  And of course there has been some snow since then.  

A base of about 18 inches at my house, and a bit more by the fish hatchery and the cross country ski trails there.  Altogether we have 3 areas of cross country ski trails in town.

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

Santa is coming.

 

fire santa GIF by South Park

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32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One of my work contacts that lives here said they just got hit day after day over the last few weeks, sounds like that is pretty unusual for this area. 

There are no good long term stations for snowfall in Omak, but from what I can tell from what data there is and nearby stations, they probably average 35-40"/year there.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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264ADFBA-3B23-4B9E-AEE8-830DAAA4A45A.jpeg

1/2" here as it's starting to melt. 33F.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There are no good long term stations for snowfall in Omak, but from what I can tell from what data there is and nearby stations, they probably average 35-40"/year there.

Pretty close. My cabin is 60-100 a year so that sounds about right. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Longtimer

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_50.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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