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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Sitting at 26 degrees now with a piercing clear sky.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
 

Down to 6 degrees here in Omak. 

Wow, Moss. No need to go all negative on us. :P lol 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Teleconnection on the EPS are great.  At the end of the run we have PNA -0.5, EPO -1.5, and NAO -2.  Numbers like that mean cold continues.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Is this during the day?

Yes it is. Starts late morning in PDX and seems to go all day. 

GFS and euro are actually the most moist models for this feature. The GFS looks weirdly concentrated over PDX though. Doesn't look very believable but the Euro does have something similar in the western gorge. Some kind of lift from interacting with the gorge outflow? Hopefully models keep this 0.25 - 0.50 in QPF range or trend a bit wetter tomorrow. This could have some potential. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

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10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yes it is. Starts late morning in PDX and seems to go all day. 

GFS and euro are actually the most moist models for this feature. The GFS looks weirdly concentrated over PDX though. Doesn't look very believable but the Euro does have something similar in the western gorge. Some kind of lift from interacting with the gorge outflow? Hopefully models keep this 0.25 - 0.50 in QPF range or trend a bit wetter tomorrow. This could have some potential. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

Good post. GFS seems to be locking in on this solution. Yeah this is a deformation band, and the light easterlies are playing a role with some convergence. In the past this scenario can lead to surprise snow totals. Appreciate your contributions.

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06z is kind of MEH for next weekend, but just one run. 

Interesting mash up of temps this morning. Looks like about Salem north along I-5 they are dealing with cloud cover and temps in the mid-30s. Some west valley and south valley locations are down into the upper 20s, and I wouldn't be surprised to see places that stay clear hit the mid-20s by morning, Looks like a -2 right now in Burns, OR and a -11 at Methow Valley in North Central Washington. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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47 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yes it is. Starts late morning in PDX and seems to go all day. 

GFS and euro are actually the most moist models for this feature. The GFS looks weirdly concentrated over PDX though. Doesn't look very believable but the Euro does have something similar in the western gorge. Some kind of lift from interacting with the gorge outflow? Hopefully models keep this 0.25 - 0.50 in QPF range or trend a bit wetter tomorrow. This could have some potential. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

Oh good, I agreed to work day shift so I hope it's enough to cause a panic and close the building down 😂

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It's also a mild 35 at The Dalles currently. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Fell asleep really early last night.   

Here is the 06z ECMWF for the system tonight and tomorrow morning and the Sunday system.     The northward trend on the Sunday system continues but it looks like an upslope event for the east side of the Cascades while offshore flow limits precip on this side of the mountains.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0101200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0230800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Back in Bozeman! Lot more snow here than in Northern Sweden. Picked up 6" of snowfall here last night. Snowpack is already very deep for this time of year. About 20" on the ground now with more snowfall on the way Sunday night and Monday.

Currently 15F.

About the same here with another 24" forecast Saturday- Monday. currently 7F outside. About to head out and snow blow the driveway. What a great start to winter

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1 minute ago, Everleigh said:

28* this morning, after a low of 23.2* around 12:30am.  Looks like a tiny flurry came through at some point. There's a cell over/near Olympia right now, hoping it comes this way and leaves a little more snow. Schools are 2 hours late as well. 

I’m watching that cell down there to see if it’ll start expanding eastward. Right now it looks like it would be too far west…but the last band started to develop eastward on its way up so we will see. 

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06Z NAM shifted everything west from its 00Z run with the incoming system... and still looks very impressive for the Hood Canal area.

nam-218-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0079600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m watching that cell down there to see if it’ll start expanding eastward. Right now it looks like it would be too far west…but the last band started to develop eastward on its way up so we will see. 

Yeah, it MIGHT be a little to west even for me. I might get the edge of it. 

I was just outside with the dogs and it is trying to snow again. A coyote got our neighbors dog, day before yesterday, in broad daylight.....So I am having to be diligent with mine. No more outside freedoms, puppos...Sorry! :(

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4 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Yeah, it MIGHT be a little to west even for me. I might get the edge of it. 

I was just outside with the dogs and it is trying to snow again. A coyote got our neighbors dog, day before yesterday, in broad daylight.....So I am having to be diligent with mine. No more outside freedoms, puppos...Sorry! :(

Snowing pretty good in Olympia now...

 

101vc36664.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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