PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Snownerd3000]

Christmas would be pretty effed if that ice storm validates.  Lots of power outages and damage.

[Snownerd3000]

Every time I tell myself I'm gonna take a break from model riding, they pull me right back in.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If you’re a snow lover who lives in the western lowlands below 46N latitude I suggest relocation to the north or east at this point because it’s kind of not going to get any better.

If not for the pandemic, we’d likely be living in Spokane right meow.

[LowerGarfield]

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

South of Skagit as the pretentious Canadian would point out, but sadly he is not here to do so.

Careful, if you are too north of skagit it will all get eaten up by outflow. Only safe space is wilderness rim and whistler. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone going to be checking out the 12Z ECMWF which starts in about 30 minutes?    

If not... I will check it later and post an update.   

I won’t see it until noon. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

So to recap at this point
- all models but the Euro operational from last night point to a short lived event
- cold, but nothing to write home about, decent snow totals but it all melts several hours after falling
- nothing forecasted supports any nearby cold for the following weeks
- Statistically speaking, January is most likely DOA

So then it should be fair to say winter is canceled for those of us west of the Cascades after our 36 hours of slush.

The table-setting for January is well underway, IMHO. No amount of spurious bannings can change that.

[Blizzard777]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a good thing the euro computers are unaware of that

Lol!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Score! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

The table-setting for January is well underway, IMHO. No amount of spurious bannings can change that.

Would be awesome if it delivered in an old school way, but I really can’t believe in January anymore. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got buried in 2012 so it was further south. 

We were also buried in January 2012... this is right before the ice storm started.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had 32” of snow with the January 2012 event. Don’t really see that next week. Well except the Euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Vegas. 

[MillCreekMike]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got buried in 2012 so it was further south. 

Also got buried in Mill Creek in 2012. Reached a peak depth of about 14” if memory serves me right. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The table-setting for January is well underway, IMHO. No amount of spurious bannings can change that.

Tomorrow's ensemble runs go to Jan 1. Grab a bat...you're on deck

 

 

[Brennan]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got buried in 2012 so it was further south. 

You got buried the day after. The initial low had a change over in Skagit. Snow level was like 200 feet. 4” in downtown Bellingham, 14” in Sudden Valley, 24” above 300 feet along the whatcom skagit line. 

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Every time I tell myself I'm gonna take a break from model riding, they pull me right back in.

This has definitely put my to do list on hold….still sitting in my chair bouncing around websites checking models.   Need to get up and do my routine…lol….but wait!  The euro run soon 
 

[lowlandsnow]

Nice improvement on the GEFS

[The Blob]

I disappeared for a day and come back to merged threads. Are wee still having freezing rain for PDX? I really don't want that.

[fubario]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Vegas. 

Bet all the 'hard ways' for me and $100 C/E

[xfkirsten]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1996 was just like this. 

In 1996, I had just gotten a brand new Nintendo 64 for Christmas, and then the next day we lost power and didn't get it back for 4 days. It was TORTURE for teenage me.

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Vegas. 

Looks nice

[yellowstone]

Honestly shocked nobody has yet pointed this out so I will…

<ahem> With the overriding event slated for Thursday, this is a full 24 hours after the winter solstice so sun angles will be rising rapidly. Most of what you’re seeing will melt upon impact with the warm ground! /sarcasm

[Deweydog]

FWIW, the longwave progression in 2012 was quite different compared to what the models are showing. Sprawling negative heights over Canada and the GOA with a block displaced well to the west. The game might looks similar up north but the players and venue would look a different. Different food options too with probably a lot of vegan and general-neutral fare. It was a different world 10 years ago… Thanks Obama!

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score! 

Snow plow came by a few minutes ago but filling up on the roads again.

[bainbridgekid]

SEA had one of their snowiest calendar days ever in Jan 2012. 6.8” if I remember and I’m pretty sure it made the top ten. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Vegas. 

The sky looks weird.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

FWIW, the longwave progression in 2012 was quite different compared to what the models are showing. Sprawling negative heights over Canada and the GOA with a block displaced well to the west. The game might looks similar up north but the players and venue would look a different. Different food options too with probably a lot of vegan and general-neutral fare. It was a different world 10 years ago… Thanks Obama!

Do you think we have a better chance farther south with this pattern? Hoping that system of the Euro verifies

[Winterdog]

The GFS has been moving the trough south the last two runs and it is stronger.  Not enough to help out Everett south but it is moving noticeably south.  Maybe it will continue this trend.  We have four days.  The 12Z on top, 0Z on bottom.

[lowlandsnow]

6z Euro control had 4.5 inches for Seattle at hour 144

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you think we have a better chance farther south with this pattern? Hoping that system of the Euro verifies

I think this thing is still in flux and some of the model “cohesion” which has emerged recently is probably being oversold. That said, I doubt that trends would be on the favorable side down here. There’s going to be a battle zone somewhere, but unless LARGE entities shift favorably, it’s likely to take place well to our north. One way or another I think this thing is gonna have somewhat of a new identity in 2-3 days.

[bainbridgekid]

19 minutes ago, Brennan said:

You got buried the day after. The initial low had a change over in Skagit. Snow level was like 200 feet. 4” in downtown Bellingham, 14” in Sudden Valley, 24” above 300 feet along the whatcom skagit line. 

Took the train from Seattle to Bellingham that day. Arrived in Fairhaven to heavy nonsticking snow and after the 2 mile bus ride up to WWU at 300 feet there were like 4-5” of snow in the road. Was crazy.

[fubario]

6 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS has been moving the trough south the last two runs and it is stronger.  Not enough to help out Everett south but it is moving noticeably south.  Maybe it will continue this trend.  We have four days.  The 12Z on top, 0Z on bottom.

Low further South   +

KONA LOW looks better  +

Ridge building in mid-west ...would be better in SE    + & -

Ridge Bridge not as solid   -

 

Net..net? Still pretty good

 

Am I doing this right?

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Took the train from Seattle to Bellingham that day. Arrived in Fairhaven to heavy nonsticking snow and after the 2 mile bus ride up to WWU at 300 feet there were like 4-5” of snow in the road. Was crazy.

I think i remember you posting pics that day.

[Deweydog]

BTW, as this thing approaches keep in mind that the best tire for traction and control in deep snow is the Michelin XGV size 75R14.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think this thing is still in flux and some of the model “cohesion” which has emerged recently is probably being oversold. That said, I doubt that trends would be on the favorable side down here. There’s going to be a battle zone somewhere, but unless LARGE entities shift favorably, it’s likely to take place well to our north. One way or another I think this thing is gonna have somewhat of a new identity in 2-3 days.

CLIMO**
 

 

 

 

**except for when it comes to predicting something vaguely good in January

[ShawniganLake]

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The table-setting for January is well underway, IMHO. No amount of spurious bannings can change that.

What do you think is on the menu.  Roast beef or old hot dogs?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

BTW, as this thing approaches keep in mind that the best tire for traction and control in deep snow is the Michelin XGV size 75R14.

Those would look funny on your Ram 1500.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sun’s starting to come out here. 36 degrees. I could go for a few days of sunshine, east winds and cold nights right now. Looks like I’ll be in luck!

[Deweydog]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

CLIMO**
 

 

 

 

**except for when it comes to predicting something vaguely good in January

The pattern next week will not be anything close to climo Jesse but good points we’ll have to look into it a little deeper I think the sun might come out today if we’re lucky how’s your Xmas shopping going are you looking forward to your big trip should be beautiful there

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

ours ended about 30min ago. just got finished blowing out and shoveling everything. 2.5-3" in the driveway.  Over producer!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What you think i forgot you had a ram 1500 Matt? Shittt

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sun’s starting to come out here. 36 degrees. I could go for a few days of sunshine, east winds and cold nights right now. Looks like I’ll be in luck!

Same here.  Never saw the sun yesterday in Battle Ground, but just a few miles west it was out for a little bit.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

The pattern next week will not be anything close to climo Jesse but good points we’ll have to look into it a little deeper I think the sun might come out today if we’re lucky how’s your Xmas shopping going are you looking forward to your big trip should be beautiful there

This is literally how my dad texts. He uses a lot of speech to text. Sort of where I got the prose from. It’s not hard to do.

[Slushy Inch]

Still very different looking! Much better ridge on Euro!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What do you think is on the menu.  Roast beef or old hot dogs?

I don’t think blocking will take too long of a vacation. I’d imagine things will ramp up shortly after the start of the month. There will always by winners and losers but the vibe has consistently resonated since last January closed out. We’ll see soon enough. As a very wise man once said, I think it was Mallow the Cloud, time will tell!

[Mid Valley Duck]

The Euro at day 2 looks better with the ridge and forming Kona low

[Slushy Inch]

Wow no backing down!

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Wow no backing down!

GFS on top

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

GFS on top

OK ill switch it