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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

The Blob

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Is this a brand new out of the box Snowmizer?

My brain was smoking after trying to figure out a problem on a Toyota today that all the other shops failed on. I win I figured it out. Seriously though how many times have all us long timers been through this lol? I believe we have enough time to watch the models put some sort of stability on the table that will most likely be fun.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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45 minutes ago, umadbro said:



The bottom line is that there
 remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to
 cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do
 not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high
 likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of
 an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather
 scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the
 ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario,
 deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited
 utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a
 particular scenario panning out. -Neuman



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7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The same volatility that got us here can get us back to a huge event. 

I want everyone to score of course, but realistically, there is very little support for things suddenly reversing for the better now.

You'd need a historic change in the modeled macro-pattern within 5 days. The trend is clear, and it's not good. Blocking is very transitory. Probabilities are low for a better outcome than currently depicted.

I do think best case scenario at this point would be, as BLIsnowman described, a poor man's Jan 2012. Some heavy lowland snow, at least briefly, probably more as you go further north.

But honestly, there was better blocking for Arctic air to move south with that event than seems realistic now.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
I wonder how completely different the models look in 2-3 days.

But we are also getting closer so the swings are going to narrow.   Who knows though.

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