PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If any variable in his entire life was slightly different he probably would not have been in that precise location at that precise second in time.

When my step son died he hit a van backing out of driveway on his motorcycle. Same situation. If that woman had woke up 30 seconds later he might be alive. 

[TT-SEA]

I am not even sure its possible to snow in the Seattle area this evening if the ECMWF is correct with the 925 temps.   Hood Canal is a different story of course.

 

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Are you serious? Wow 

Yeah, although it's quite light. I imagine if the precipitation intensity picked up it would be snow, but it's hard to tell as my temperature keeps pushing up. 37F now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, although it's quite light. I imagine if the precipitation intensity picked up it would be snow, but it's hard to tell as my temperature keeps pushing up. 37F now.

You have had positively craptacular luck so far this season.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When my step son died he hit a van backing out of driveway on his motorcycle. Same situation. If that woman had woke up 30 seconds later he might be alive. 

So sad.

Makes you wonder how many near death experiences we narrowly avoid and don't even know it.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not even sure its possible to snow in the Seattle area this evening if the ECMWF is correct with the 925 temps.   Hood Canal is a different story of course.

 

yuck, guess I don’t have to stress about missing any snow at home now. 

[Weiner Warrior]

33.3 

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not even sure its possible to snow in the Seattle area this evening if the ECMWF is correct with the 925 temps.   Hood Canal is a different story of course.

 

Winds at 925 mb are southerly and warmer air is nosing its way in already. But as the low drops south winds turn easterly later tonight. GFS shows 925's peaking at 0.5 C at 4 PM and then dropping down to -1.5 by 10 PM with the east wind. Another borderline situation IMO. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow increasing at home. Been watching it on cams. Leaving work early, was going to take the entire day off but to much going on.

[TT-SEA]

Sky getting brighter here.   Still no wind as you can tell by the perfectly caked trees.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Stuff like this blows my mind. Now think about this one, if he was born 1 minute later would he have still been there at that moment? Or just one time if he had walked out the door to work 1 minute later would it had happened.

At 40 mph, 15 seconds is all it would have taken.

[Brennan]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Stuff like this blows my mind. Now think about this one, if he was born 1 minute later would he have still been there at that moment? Or just one time if he had walked out the door to work 1 minute later would it had happened.

At 60mph… 1 second different. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My snow cam!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Chris said:

Except for the brown stuff in his pants.

That actually happened Tuesday night.  The road might not open back up until next week.

The brown stuff was from Tuesday? Wow what a dirty mofo.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Chris said:

Except for the brown stuff in his pants.

That actually happened Tuesday night.  The road might not open back up until next week.

you mean like this?

[Skagit Weather]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You have had positively craptacular luck so far this season.

It's the Skagit swamp!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

It's the Skagit swamp!

How much snow do u average per year?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The current radar is lit up more than gfs said it would be at this time.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

you mean like this?

That would be a hard thing to come back from.  RMAOFL!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The rgem meso model looks like it has this handled the best so far

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The current radar is lit up more than gfs said it would be at this time.

The difference is that GFS and ECMWF don't have radar projections... they just show accumulated precip.    Often times the radar can look more impressive than the actual precip totals.   It doesn't mean the models were wrong though.   

That being said... the Hood Canal area is in a favorable spot for orographic lifting today.    So the same looking radar echoes might be resulting in much more precip out there than in the Seattle area or out here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The difference is that GFS and ECMWF don't have radar projections... they just show accumulated precip.    Often times the radar can look more impressive than the actual precip totals.   It doesn't mean the models were wrong though.   

That being said... the Hood Canal area is in a favorable spot for orographic lifting today.    So the same looking radar echoes might be resulting in much more precip out there than in the Seattle area or out here.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim isn't this radar for gfs?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 

Oh yeah... there is a radar simulation on the GFS.    I stand corrected.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Oh yeah... there is a radar simulation on the GFS.    I stand corrected.  

I always use this to compare the real radar is the radar looks much better than this.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also showing an AR type system approaching next weekend.    No idea how this will play out at the surface but could be interesting.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Now i'm trying to figure out is this thing ahead of schedule or is it just juicier? because if those echo's continue till 4am we will get nuked.

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much snow do u average per year?

My average over the last 10 years is a notch over 7", but that's mostly bumped up because of the last 4. Between 2011 and 2018 I averaged 3.5" a year.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs shows the real show is between 10pm and 4am.

[TT-SEA]

Well... this run of the ECMWF gets very warm with that system next weekend.   This is a snow killer for me with a strong SW wind and warm air aloft.    But the details could change with cold air available to the north.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

My average over the last 10 years is a notch over 7", but that's mostly bumped up because of the last 4. Between 2011 and 2018 I averaged 3.5" a year.

My average at home the last 15 years is about 25-30 inches. That is pretty crazy for 600ft.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows mid 50s in Seattle and 60s in the Columbia basin next weekend.   

[runninthruda206]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows mid 50s in Seattle and 60s in the Columbia basin next weekend.   

Disgusting 

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My average at home the last 15 years is about 25-30 inches. That is pretty crazy for 600ft.

Yeah, that's amazing! Considering how good I consider years with over 20" of snow here, to have that happen every year is incredible!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, runninthruda206 said:

Disgusting 

That is puke worthy in December.   

[TT-SEA]

Then the cold air comes rushing back in the next day...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, that's amazing! Considering how good I consider years with over 20" of snow here, to have that happen every year is incredible!

There are a couple years that were crap but some really big years also. I have been at that location since 2004 and we have never had a snowless winter. Least amount was 4-6 inches.

[RentonHill]

hey atleast there's cold air there. Just need to figure out the block a little bit behind one of these lows that are coming in at the right spot compared to this previous event

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

February 2019 still blows my mind what i witnessed out there.  But the way this winter is going i might come close to those totals for 2019. I think i was 60 inches that season.