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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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48 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I know Mazama isn't particularly close to your cabin, but their snowfall stats are quite impressive. They already have 38.6" on the season which is good for 6th most up to through December 1. Normal is about 18". They average about 120" a year and the biggest years there are also insane. Both 1970-71 and 1996-97 had more than 220".

We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes.  Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70).  Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows mid 50s in Seattle and 60s in the Columbia basin next weekend.   🤮

It also shows a foot of 35F snow here next Thurs/Fri before the warm air makes its way up. For some reason I'm a bit skeptical...

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place.    

And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0846400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes.  Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70).  Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere.

Mazama is a snow magnet. They get way way more than my cabin. And even over at my cabin i have another piece of land just 4 miles away that is 500ft higher elevation and that property gets about 30% more snow than my cabin. I also picked a spot to build that is facing north lol. Bad for solar but good for holding the snow on the trees. Makes a massive difference.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Then the cold air comes rushing back in the next day...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-0846400.png

I was going to say, once that front goes through the cold air aloft will SURGE back in. GFS shows this as well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

We have very interesting precip gradients here on the East slopes.  Mazama is about 13-14 miles from Winthrop, but averages 50 more inches of snow (120 to 70).  Similar to differences between Leavenworth and Cashmere.

They also show similar minimal differences in elevation. Both Cashmere and Winthrop are only about 300-400' lower than Leavenworth and Mazama. So it really is the rain shadow gradation.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place.    

And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0630400.png

That's the 24-hour map, not the total map. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

They also show similar minimal differences in elevation. Both Cashmere and Winthrop are only about 300-400' lower than Leavenworth and Mazama. So it really is the rain shadow gradation.

Exactly.  And the vegetation is so much different.  You go from forested hills and green all over the place to hills with grass and sagebrush with lots of yellow and brown.

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So sad.

Makes you wonder how many near death experiences we narrowly avoid and don't even know it.

I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph.

If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this.

Kinda shook me up.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph.

If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this.

Kinda shook me up.

Thank God you were checking the forum at the light. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph.

If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this.

Kinda shook me up.

My wife slaps my hand if I go to pick up my phone at a stoplight.   Probably for good reason. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... this run of the ECMWF gets very warm with that system next weekend.   This is a snow killer for me with a strong SW wind and warm air aloft.    But the details could change with cold air available to the north.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-0760000.png

This is a set up for freezing rain for us.  Cold air damming in these situations often keeps us below freezing way longer than modeled. Glad cold air comes back.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife slaps my hand if I go to pick up my phone at a stoplight.   Probably for good reason. 

It's scary how many semi truck drivers i see looking at there phone driving down the highway, see it all the time driving over the pass. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days... the snow to the north and south of Seattle comes next Friday as that large moisture plume overruns the cold air in place.    

And with so much snow in the mountains... a one day warm up won't hurt much particularly with the cold air coming back in so fast.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0846400.png

Can you post just this weekend ?

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26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I had a surreal moment not too long ago where I was at a stoplight and it turned green, but I didn't see it right away because I was looking at my phone. When I looked up and was about to hit the gas, I simultaneously heard a horn blaring - a semi was blowing through the light at about 50 mph.

If I had been paying close attention and pulled forward as soon the light turned green as I do most the time, he almost certainly would have slammed into me. Driver's side, so would have been a direct hit and I probably wouldn't be here typing this.

Kinda shook me up.

put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay.  put the device in the glovebox or backseat.  Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO

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EPS is ROCK solid. 

Kind of starting to get the feeling the hammer is going to drop at some point. Probably not for a while yet, but it's coming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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By the way. 

Who told you the worm was going to turn?
 

Of course I am not one to toot my own horn, but come on. Credit where credit is due. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It would be a bummer to persistently be in this coolish pattern, with the goods close by, but not just quite here. 

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay.  put the device in the glovebox or backseat.  Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO

I don't think you quite followed what happened... 😉

Agree that distracted driving is just as bad as driving under the influence. Almost definitely causes more accidents these days than impaired driving, since a lot more people are distracted by their devices than impaired.

A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

put your phone up when driving. hands free/bluetooth and/or carplay.  put the device in the glovebox or backseat.  Sorry you almost got hit but distracted driving is as bad as impaired driving, IMO

Saw a very interesting study a while back that noted that hands free phone calls were almost as bad as talking on the phone physically, it's an attention issue to converse with someone regardless of how you're doing it. However, talking to a physical passenger in the other seat shows marked risk reduction in comparison to a hands free phone call as it is generally speaking 4 eyes on the road. Who would have thunk it

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2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

It would be a bummer to persistently be in this coolish pattern, with the goods close by, but not just quite here. 

Well it's a lot better than last year. 

SLE

12/1/21: 65/43

12/1/22: 41/32

IMBY

12/1/21: 62/46

12/1/22: 34/30

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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