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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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1 minute ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Rain until about 15 minutes ago when it switched to a rain/snow mix up near the northern portion of the canal.   Currently having periods of snow transitioning back and forth to rain/snow mix. 

It's always funny how you get the changeover a bit before me despite being practically next door. 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Yeah. Could see this being an ice-maker for parts of the metro, too.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough.

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8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Mother in law says heavy snow in Edmonds now. 

Radar showed precip overhead for a while before this but she said it was dry.

From the video she sent me, 'heavy' appears to be a bit hyperbolic.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

I don’t want to talk about it  

06813A73-22B4-4BEF-A133-9523F1DC07B3.jpeg

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp"  tag for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

We lose them all on Bainbridge haha 

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too.

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

Kingston, Indianola, Suquamish, and Bainbridge always get skunked... until we don't. It's frustrating, but we should expect it at this point. 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too.

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough.

Definitely possible.

Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning.

web_ECMWF_Text_18z_HourlyData.jpg

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Definitely possible.

Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning.

web_ECMWF_Text_18z_HourlyData.jpg

GEM also looks to be showing a decent amount of precip, though mostly only 1-2" snow west metro and not much east metro. Maybe if that cold is being underdone we could see a nice event. Didn't the Euro also underdo the precip for today's system in the Sound?

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

Yeah, see my post below.

NAM still scours out the cold layer pretty quickly though, despite showing plenty of precip. I think the truth will be somewhere in between. NAM has an almost WAA look to it despite a total lack of any onshore component, so its solution on Sunday evening also looks unlikely IMO.

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7 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

It's always funny how you get the changeover a bit before me despite being practically next door. 

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

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3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

There was this guy Eric on the old Fox 12 Weather Blog that would keep going on about the anti-weather dome over Milwaukie.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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39/30 with light rain. The fact the dew point is below freezing gives me a glimmer of hope, but considering the temperature is currently going the wrong way it's only a glimmer.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 10" (12/18: 0.75", 12/19: 2.5", 12/20: 6", 1/31: 0.25", 2/28: 0.5"; Trace: 11/7, 12/2, 12/21; Flakes: 11/29, 11/30, 12/1, 2/26)

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2 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

Oh yea, a lot of things you learn about weather living here. For example, when there's a region-wide windstorm, we often get no wind at all during the event, but then massive wind as it exits the area and is clear and sunny. 

I remember last year or the year before, there was one snow event where Hansville, Poulsbo, Silverdale, Bremerton, etc. all got a big snow dump, and we all got nothing, but then as the system was winding down somehow a single precip cell stalled over us and dumped more for us than the others got during the initial event. It's weird  here, and I'm ok with that. 

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Just now, KingstonWX said:

I fully agree. Definitely the best area to live in Washington, in my opinion, and I've lived in a lot of them.

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

The euro is showing very different outcomes every single run. The other models are seeming to jump onto the GFS bandwagon in terms of precip at least. The new GEM and RGEM both have 0.50 in qpf for PDX and the NAM is pretty wet too. 

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2 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

When Bainbridge does get snow, there is much more accumulation just a quarter mile uphill from my place. Every time. In 2022 it was a 5 minute walk separating 2 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

I spent 10 years dreaming of living over here and looking at houses, while living in Renton, Sammamish, and then Arlington/Trafton area. Arlington/Trafton was the best area I've ever lived in when it comes to snow, but it's just not even remotely close to comparing to all the benefits of living over here. 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM also looks to be showing a decent amount of precip, though mostly only 1-2" snow west metro and not much east metro. Maybe if that cold is being underdone we could see a nice event. Didn't the Euro also underdo the precip for today's system in the Sound?

The 12z Euro today definitely appears that it's going to be a little underdone, but previous runs were wetter.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

Oh and pro-tip: You can get a house on a 100% private lake that you own over here for way cheaper than you can for the price of a house on the sound. I highly recommend it 😉

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12 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

Oh yeah, the Washington County Donut Hole extends into Clackamas County too.

At least it's better than Canby and Aurora.

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