PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Puking snow rn 

I’m jealous. Just light snow here. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Coming down pretty good with an image from an intersection cam. Trace coating on grass/cars.

Looks like we might in luck.  This cold air mass was pretty legit.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m jealous. Just light snow here. 

Didn’t u get a lot out in Ravensdale earlier this week? 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

Any thoughts on this not so believable looking mechanism driving the precip on Sunday? The low is far away and looks fairly anemic. Seems a bit hard to believe you can get a widespread area of 0.4+ in QPF seemingly out of nothing.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Puking snow rn 

It’s all snow now. East wind is kicking in right now finally and it’s doing the trick. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

Seed air mass.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

The low level airmass in the Basin in early January 2016 was definitely colder. On the other hand, the window for snowfall with that was really pretty minor due to the rapid WAA aloft and we basically just cashed in with that first solid band. Sunday appears to at least have a longer window for snow with a steady supply of offshore flow throughout the lower levels throughout the duration and with no real WAA aloft.

I really think it will mostly just come down to precip rates, especially since there is that little warm layer aloft prior to the onset and it will take a little bit to get the whole column back below freezing. I think 31-32 is our best case scenario with it, maybe closer to 33 over at subtropical PDX.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t u get a lot out in Ravensdale earlier this week? 

Yes but you know you get greedy lol 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It’s all snow now. East wind is kicking in right now finally and it’s doing the trick. 

Told ya!! Never underestimate what offshore flow can do. Remember this because the models do terrible with this sometimes. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like Nanaimo's going to get crushed with snow again. Still 40F here in Victoria, not much of anything going on, maybe a bit of rain. The outflow is slowly crawling across the Strait.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m jealous. Just light snow here. 

It will pick up.  At least it's not rain!

[SnowPlz]

Weather dot com just switched from 100% rain to 5-8 inches of snow fwiw 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t u get a lot out in Ravensdale earlier this week? 

We did pretty well on Wednesday.  Nice to see pretty much everyone getting a shot.

[Terreboner]

I always wonder during arctic outbreaks with surface lows, when all that cold air pours out over the Pacific, which is warm relatively, what that looks like out there.  

I mean, we don't really pay attention to ocean accumulations.  I would think anchoring a boat about 50 miles off of Vancouver Island during one of these events would be the time of my life.

[bainbridgekid]

Bremerton airport looks like a blizzard and SR 3 is getting snow covered a few miles North of Poulsbo.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like Nanaimo's going to get crushed with snow again. Still 40F here in Victoria, not much of anything going on, maybe a bit of rain. The outflow is slowly crawling across the Strait.

There is so much cold air over southern BC right now.  It was inevitable some places would do very well.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Told ya!! Never underestimate what offshore flow can do. Remember this because the models do terrible with this sometimes. 

Will be interesting if it actually starts sticking or not. Can’t imagine it’ll drop to or below freezing. 

[SnowPlz]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I always wonder during arctic outbreaks with surface lows, when all that cold air pours out over the Pacific, which is warm relatively, what that looks like out there.  

I mean, we don't really pay attention to ocean accumulations.  I would think anchoring a boat about 50 miles off of Vancouver Island during one of these events would be the time of my life.

Let’s rent kayaks! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Getting deep! This is turning into a awesome event. Going to be a big one out here. A widespread 3-8 inches west of Puget sound and 2-5 east look like a good bet.

[bishbish777]

Good ol' fashioned cold rain here in Wallingford! 37 degrees. Hope things cool down soon..

[GHweatherChris]

All snow now, small flakes, but still.....

[RCola]

Back to rain in Belltown and temperature increased. Not sure this is going to work out for us folks, once again. I'm skeptical. Preparing myself for the possibility we lose out on snow to the north, south, east, and west in the span of 4 days. What a bad stretch to think about.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Bremerton airport looks like a blizzard and SR 3 is getting snow covered a few miles North of Poulsbo.

 

It's been ripping out here man. A few times it was snowing hard like it did in Feb 2019. This is better snow than Tuesday was. Still wet snow but the normal wet snow we get, Tues snow was concrete. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

OHIO STATE IS GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS 

[runninthruda206]

You think it’ll turn to snow here?

[KingstonWX]

9 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

Weather dot com just switched from 100% rain to 5-8 inches of snow fwiw 

You have beat the algo. 

[RCola]

2 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

You think it’ll turn to snow here?

You have a slightly better chance than I do, but that's not saying too much. But let's hope!

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The low level airmass in the Basin in early January 2016 was definitely colder. On the other hand, the window for snowfall with that was really pretty minor due to the rapid WAA aloft and we basically just cashed in with that first solid band. Sunday appears to at least have a longer window for snow with a steady supply of offshore flow throughout the lower levels throughout the duration and with no real WAA aloft.

I really think it will mostly just come down to precip rates, especially since there is that little warm layer aloft prior to the onset and it will take a little bit to get the whole column back below freezing. I think 31-32 is our best case scenario with it, maybe closer to 33 over at subtropical PDX.

Maybe we'll get temps down to 31 and some moderate precip and 5" of snow! Obviously that's out there but just maybe

[snow_wizard]

The big question on Sunday is how far north the moisture will go.  The ECMWF has been sending it much further north than the GFS.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The big question on Sunday is how far north the moisture will go.  The ECMWF has been sending it much further north than the GFS.

I like the GFS solution

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The low level airmass in the Basin in early January 2016 was definitely colder. On the other hand, the window for snowfall with that was really pretty minor due to the rapid WAA aloft and we basically just cashed in with that first solid band. Sunday appears to at least have a longer window for snow with a steady supply of offshore flow throughout the lower levels throughout the duration and with no real WAA aloft.

I really think it will mostly just come down to precip rates, especially since there is that little warm layer aloft prior to the onset and it will take a little bit to get the whole column back below freezing. I think 31-32 is our best case scenario with it, maybe closer to 33 over at subtropical PDX.

Yeah, 1/3/16 was definitely not as synchronized with the CAA which looks to occur within this DZ, even if it’s pretty minor. GFS is obviously the most gung ho with this, which isn’t surprising, but in that case I suppose someone getting down the 32 under the heaviest stuff is doable…

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

You think it’ll turn to snow here?

Probably.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There is so much cold air over southern BC right now.  It was inevitable some places would do very well.

The whole east side of the island north of Victoria has done incredibly with this, all the way up to Port Hardy. In Victoria this has been one of the most frustrating events I've ever experienced. Doesn't matter what the setup, nothing seems to be connecting. Even with all the cold air nearby we're still getting blasted with SE winds.

Things look wild on the highway north of Parksville tonight, this is between Parksville and Comox:

[Winterdog]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We did pretty well on Wednesday.  Nice to see pretty much everyone getting a shot.

A painful qualifier Jim.  And unfortunately, the beat does go on for those of us who aren't among the "pretty much" crowd.  You should see my crocodile tears.

[snow_wizard]

We're actually getting decently dry flakes here, but it's frustratingly light so far.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The whole east side of the island north of Victoria has done incredibly with this, all the way up to Port Hardy. In Victoria this has been one of the most frustrating events I've ever experienced. Doesn't matter what the setup, nothing seems to be connecting. Even with all the cold air nearby we're still getting blasted with SE winds.

Things look wild on the highway north of Parksville tonight, this is between Parksville and Comox:

I've been there more than once.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

A painful qualifier Jim.  And unfortunately, the beat does go on for those of us who aren't among the "pretty much" crowd.  

I am willing to bet that some time in the next month you will be in the best location and get dumped on.

[Winterdog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am willing to bet that some time in the next month you will be in the best location and get dumped on.

Haha yeah, but dumped on with what?  I'm actually doing fine Tim.  Thanks for the encouragement.

[jakerepp]

While yall enjoy the snow, it might actually rain here tomorrow!

 

 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

A painful qualifier Jim.  And unfortunately, the beat does go on for those of us who aren't among the "pretty much" crowd.  

People who live in your area can't complain about not getting snow. There's like 57,945 examples of times when you got snow measured in feet when the people closer to the sound had to deal with cold rain. Those are the rules, I don't make them.

[mtep]

Getting a flake every 5ish seconds in the snow lamp. Hope the roads arent too bad tomorrow!

[T-Town]

Still mostly liquid here. Down to 35 though. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Haha yeah, but dumped on with what?  I'm actually doing fine Tim.  Thanks for the encouragement.

Snow!  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

While yall enjoy the snow, it might actually rain here tomorrow!

 

 

Watering the dirt.   

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

I think you're looking too much at current obs and not what they will be on Sunday.

The source air mass in 2016 was not colder than this one.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Dumping rain here at home in Central District. Our manager at the pizza shop called and said it was dumping snow in Burien so we shut down delivery. Any reports over there of sticking snow or did they just want to go home? 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

People who live in your area can't complain about not getting snow. There's like 57,945 examples of times when you got snow measured in feet when the people closer to the sound had to deal with cold rain. Those are the rules, I don't make them.

For once I want to see Mossman get 1 inch while every other location gets 3 feet #resilience 

[snow_wizard]

One thing about this regime we are in is it presents a number of different scenarios capable of producing snow.  Eventually everyone should get in on something good.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

For once I want to see Mossman get 1 inch while every other location gets 3 feet #resilience 

True rebellion. 

[SeanNyberg]

Lightly snowing in Issaquah, been 31 since this afternoon.