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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dumping and roads went from wet to white in 10 minutes here. Still have 4” on the ground too so it’s been a really snowy feeling week.

 

8663AE34-0584-47B3-A3FA-519F214B943A.jpeg

It's amazing how different it has been up here. The days have been sunny and dry with just some frost on the ground. I went up into the Chuckanuts today and it took until about 1,200' when I started seeing snow. At the top there was a little more than a dusting and considering there's snow up there for a majority of the winter I was not particularly impressed.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 9.25" (12/18: 0.75", 12/19: 2.5", 12/20: 6"; Trace: 11/7, 12/2, 12/21; Flakes: 11/29, 11/30, 12/1)

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15 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How do you normally do going into Arctic events. It seems like your area has a lot of similar dynamics to East Vancouver Island. The Shawnigan - Parksville almost always gets snow going into an Arctic event.

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's see how things look in 24 hours.

If The Dalles is still in the mid 30s, you may be in trouble.

They really need to see the ECMWF show precip over Portland.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 here but the DP is 33 now and it’s mostly rain again. We’re closer to measurable snow than I thought we would be tonight though it’s very close. Could still happen just seems like it’ll be tough to do. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-11

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-24

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-0.89”

Wet season rainfall-17.30”

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

I'm not sure anywhere north of Oregon does well in backdoor blasts. Onshore flow snowfalls are definitely more of a thing on west-facing slopes.

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Rough illustration of where snow is falling and where it’s been more of a mix based on mPING reports. Pretty similar dividing line to Tuesday night.

Closing in on an inch here since it started sticking at 9:00.

 

76934E78-91C1-410A-A764-B84D8E7F1D3C.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 82.5"

2022-23: 15"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Currently 33 with snow coming down at a decent rate. Just looked out the window to see it finally snowing!

2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's see how things look in 24 hours.

If The Dalles is still in the mid 30s, you may be in trouble.

The Dalles WILL drop to freezing at some point. And Pasco will probably have a high close to freezing tomorrow. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Fully snow now in north Seattle and starting to accumulate!

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

Total: 5.5"

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Disappointing drive home. Was dumping and sticking to main roads in Mill Creek and got home in downtown Everett and it’s still very light chunky precip even though radar shows pretty heavy precip over me. Elevation playing its role. 

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Everett Snowfall (2022-2023)

11/29: 4”

12/2: 0.5”

12/18: Tr.

12/19: 0.5”

12/20: 2”

 

Total: 7”

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well that's just darn mighty kind of ya. I would be happy with 1/2" - 1" honestly. I'm closer to the Gorge, so my chance might be pretty decent.

Besides the fun of tracking it online, the actual snowfall in Seattle has been very pedestrian.  An inch of slush at 33.5 degrees isn't worth putting on snow boots for.  I walked to mailbox in Tuesdays slush and walked to the bus this morning when we had a dusting.  Hopefully Portland get an inch or two tomorrow.

 

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Precip looking better on the  00z Euro. Temps look good before the precip but ends up a hair too warm. Precip rates are still too light and much lower than the other models. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

ecmwf_full_2022120300_045_45.4--122.8.png

 

 

Yeah... I guess its a combination of light precip and slightly too warm.    The ECMWF only shows .15 at PDX from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just noticed that its going to be sunny across the entire area tomorrow!     Can't wait to see sun on the snow cover here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I guess its a combination of light precip and slightly too warm.    The ECMWF only shows .15 at PDX from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

Yeah it is an improvement over the 18z but this will not get the job done. Euro puts the lowland bullseye for precip around Chehalis or so. 

image.thumb.png.70f7d055ed08e163fe01d3a7a0682cce.png

image.thumb.png.55fdb7607459e4619d8c079f5d108b48.png

 

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Just now, Jginmartini said:

Back to lumpy rain rain :(

it’s over 

Keeps going back and forth. We get a few minutes where it really seems like it’s fully going to changeover then it lets up. Still quite a bit of time for something to happen though. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-11

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-24

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-0.89”

Wet season rainfall-17.30”

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