PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Call me old fashioned, but I always feel a tad better about frozen precipitation chances when temperatures are well below freezing.

Marginal temps only from here on out. Sorry pal

[BLI snowman]

 

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That…. will not happen.

I would probably surmise it will be 36-37 when precip starts up there. Colder away from the river.

Not so bad chance that there's a midnight high on Sunday at PDX.

[SnowySeeker50]

Temperature is hovering around 33 degrees so trace accumulations. Lightened up now and transitioned to a rain/snow mix.

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dumping and roads went from wet to white in 10 minutes here. Still have 4” on the ground too so it’s been a really snowy feeling week.

 

It's amazing how different it has been up here. The days have been sunny and dry with just some frost on the ground. I went up into the Chuckanuts today and it took until about 1,200' when I started seeing snow. At the top there was a little more than a dusting and considering there's snow up there for a majority of the winter I was not particularly impressed.

[Margaritaville]

Started bare 4 hours ago, still dumping! 

[xfkirsten]

Light snow coming down in the Redmond lowlands! Not really sticking though. Should make for a pretty (if cold) sight for those who are out for the opening of Redmond Lights tonight!

[Gummy]

35 in North Seattle, still a mix of snow/rain

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How do you normally do going into Arctic events. It seems like your area has a lot of similar dynamics to East Vancouver Island. The Shawnigan - Parksville almost always gets snow going into an Arctic event.

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

[Blizzard777]

Just came out of the Oculus vr golf world in the SW to snow falling in the streetlamp.  Not a great quality snow but snow.  33.5* 

Ex just pinged me from Ferndale Wa of flurries happening and 29* ….she wins 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Margaritaville said:

Started bare 4 hours ago, still dumping! 

Location?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's see how things look in 24 hours.

If The Dalles is still in the mid 30s, you may be in trouble.

They really need to see the ECMWF show precip over Portland.  

[Margaritaville]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Location?

Shelton, Lake Limerick

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody have the 00z gfs wrf?

[TacomaWx]

34 here but the DP is 33 now and it’s mostly rain again. We’re closer to measurable snow than I thought we would be tonight though it’s very close. Could still happen just seems like it’ll be tough to do. 

[yellowstone]

Very very slow transition from rain to snow here. Probably 75% snow now. Don’t see how we get anything measurable out of this unless the temp starts falling much faster. Still 34.5. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

I'm not sure anywhere north of Oregon does well in backdoor blasts. Onshore flow snowfalls are definitely more of a thing on west-facing slopes.

[Perturbed Member]

Here comes the 00z Euro. Big run. Those euros better bow before the new king GFS. 

[bainbridgekid]

Rough illustration of where snow is falling and where it’s been more of a mix based on mPING reports. Pretty similar dividing line to Tuesday night.

Closing in on an inch here since it started sticking at 9:00.

 

[SnowySeeker50]

Kind of jumping around right now. One minute its snowing and the next its raining.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They really need to see the ECMWF show precip over Portland.  

Yes. Pivotal Euro run #24 tonight.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 33 with snow coming down at a decent rate. Just looked out the window to see it finally snowing!

[Gummy]

34 here and finally switched to snow.  It is starting to turn the non pavement surfaces white.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Still 100% snow here. Temp and dp both at 33.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF... total snow through tomorrow morning.    This includes everything that has already happened.

[SnarkyGoblin]

I'm rooting for you Oregonians!

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's see how things look in 24 hours.

If The Dalles is still in the mid 30s, you may be in trouble.

The Dalles WILL drop to freezing at some point. And Pasco will probably have a high close to freezing tomorrow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

I'm rooting for you Oregonians!

Well that's just darn mighty kind of ya. I would be happy with 1/2" - 1" honestly. I'm closer to the Gorge, so my chance might be pretty decent.

[Seattle]

Fully snow now in north Seattle and starting to accumulate!

[RCola]

Plain ol' rain here in downtown. The Tuesday vibes are strong with this one.

[yellowstone]

Well, apparently my last post was all it took. Temp now down to 33.8, falling faster than at any point all night, all snow now and starting to form a slushy base layer for future accumulation. Dare to dream?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[MillCreekMike]

Disappointing drive home. Was dumping and sticking to main roads in Mill Creek and got home in downtown Everett and it’s still very light chunky precip even though radar shows pretty heavy precip over me. Elevation playing its role. 

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well that's just darn mighty kind of ya. I would be happy with 1/2" - 1" honestly. I'm closer to the Gorge, so my chance might be pretty decent.

Besides the fun of tracking it online, the actual snowfall in Seattle has been very pedestrian.  An inch of slush at 33.5 degrees isn't worth putting on snow boots for.  I walked to mailbox in Tuesdays slush and walked to the bus this morning when we had a dusting.  Hopefully Portland get an inch or two tomorrow.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday event... the ECMWF refuses to show precip in the Portland area.

[Perturbed Member]

Precip looking marginally better on the  00z Euro. Temps look good before the precip but ends up a hair too warm. Precip rates are still too light and much lower than the other models. 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday event... the ECMWF refuses to show precip in the Portland area.

Looks to creep north 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Precip looking better on the  00z Euro. Temps look good before the precip but ends up a hair too warm. Precip rates are still too light and much lower than the other models. 

 

 

Yeah... I guess its a combination of light precip and slightly too warm.    The ECMWF only shows .15 at PDX from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Precip looking better on the  00z Euro. Temps look good before the precip but ends up a hair too warm. Precip rates are still too light and much lower than the other models. 

 

 

I think the strong east winds are going to make temps more favorable

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that its going to be sunny across the entire area tomorrow!     Can't wait to see sun on the snow cover here.  

[Deweydog]

Lincoln City snow!

 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I guess its a combination of light precip and slightly too warm.    The ECMWF only shows .15 at PDX from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

Yeah it is an improvement over the 18z but this will not get the job done. Euro puts the lowland bullseye for precip around Chehalis or so. 

 

[KingstonWX]

All snow here now. Finally. 

[bishbish777]

Looks like it's gonna end up being just a touch too warm here. 34.5 with cold rain. I think areas at or below freezing should be able to pick up at least 2-3" from this, lots of precip over the next few hours.

[Blizzard777]

Back to lumpy rain rain

it’s over 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the strong east winds are going to make temps more favorable

Agree, I have a gut feeling that the east wind will deliver if we can just get steady moderate precip. Annoyingly the Euro is being inconsiderate...

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I guess its a combination of light precip and slightly too warm.    The ECMWF only shows .15 at PDX from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

Double what the 18z showed. Progress.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Jginmartini said:

Back to lumpy rain rain

it’s over 

Keeps going back and forth. We get a few minutes where it really seems like it’s fully going to changeover then it lets up. Still quite a bit of time for something to happen though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4