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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob
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  • Longtimer
24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be awesome if everyone got a few inches Friday night before heading into the cool dry spell

I would really love a freshen up, not quite enough snow on the ground yet to soothe my soul going into a dry period. C’MON!!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Staff
7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm glad you had that problem too. I thought it was my blower but the snow was like concrete. I was going to message you and ask how yours was working.

Yeah... I was sure my snowblower was having issues but it worked fine last night on the lighter snow that fell in the evening.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a Portland special on Sunday night...

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0274000.png

I'd like it to verify for my sake.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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  • Longtimer
14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be nice if some moisture could work it’s way in here. Seems like there has been a permanent area of showers to the NW of the Portland area that mostly hasn’t budged since yesterday afternoon.

Fwiw it’s all rain here 

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2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Enough for a deck dusting here in the hills of New Fresno.

November finished at 47.9 / 34.5 / 5.09"

IMG_1070.jpg

That dusting is about what I got last night.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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I'm not good at predicting the motion of this stuff. Chances this makes it over to the central sound?image.png.75d55b4480bab063837f53198bbd3ff8.png

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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By Friday night we have a nice east wind and the Euro and GFS soundings scream snow with a temp in the mid 30s and DP in the low 20s. It looks like a textbook setup for a classic east wind snowstorm in PDX but it won't happen because this sadistic low can't be bothered to be a 50-100 miles further east and it will instead blue ball us by dropping some more snow in the coast range as it flies to the south. There's gotta be a way to petition this thing to reconsider?! 😃

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

image.thumb.png.9503d7824c35af2727c826f45e8f33ee.png

image.png.055a8964824066ab84480a55fddab55b.png

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  • Longtimer

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

xww_snowacc.51.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.MDLfwakZoT.webp

Hopefully it moistens up just a little more…C’MON!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, WeatheringLoyalHeights said:

I was wondering the same, but it seems like most of the moisture is getting eaten up before it reaches us.  Fingers crossed though!

Yeah it is pretty clearly diminishing frame by frame. Would love a flurry or 2 over here though!

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Surprisingly, GEFS and EPS are pretty well aligned for Fri/Sat system. Not looking like a huge event but could give some more light coatings like the past few days.

1669874400-lk2kowgOXR0.png

1669852800-JRWDRVd8TCg.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a Portland special on Sunday night...

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0274000.png

This is starting to look promising for them.  They deserve it!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

The NAM and the WRF are quite different.  Hope the WRF is more correct. WRF shows hours of snow.  Looks like it could be a Kitsap centric event.  Need some snow here, nothing to show for the cold yet but a bunch of ice.

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7 minutes ago, gusky said:

Seems to be pretty quiet here this morning, wonder what's going on.

People are just exhausted from the last couple of days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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46 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Impressive November for the region.

BLI: Coldest since 1985, #4 all-time.

SEA: Coldest since 1985 (barely beating out 1993), #6 all-time.

OLM: Coldest since 1985, #2 all-time.

EUG: Coldest since 2000, #6 all-time.

It felt like it came with hardly any effort either... Significant cold anomalies piled up during almost every weather pattern this November had to offer as local climo beat out red 500mb height maps. We took advantage of clear nights, inversions, cold troughing, and even a light snowpack yesterday! Truly felt like a rare throwback month instead of a solid month that we had to squeeze out every last drop of potential for. It could have been much colder had the die fallen in an even slightly different configuration. Probably my favorite November since 2010.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Lots of blocking on GEFS, EPS means for 1st half of December. Seems like late December might be the time to watch. 1671148800-vrgKqB0jivs.png

1671084000-Y55rQFlIFHI.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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The legit cold is flooding in from Seattle northward right now.  Sumas is at a bone chilling 22, while Everett is 32 with a dp of 25.  Looks like low dew points have made it as far south as West Point near Seattle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

xww_snowacc.51.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.MDLfwakZoT.webp

Nice. Looks nice and snowy for our Friday night at Alderbrook. Might have to make the trip out to Hama Hama optional depending on road conditions. 

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16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

Another great thing you noted yesterday was that arcing precipitation bands like the one incoming Friday usually end up displaced further north/east away from the low than modeled. Could mean more precip for much of the area. Euro looks like it catches onto this and is much juicier than the GFS.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People are just exhausted from the last couple of days.

Yeah, staying up late paired with little results in the form of snow much of the time definitely tests my patience. Still going strong though

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It felt like it came with hardly any effort either... Significant cold anomalies piled up during almost every weather pattern this November had to offer as local climo beat out red 500mb height maps. We took advantage of clear nights, inversions, cold troughing, and even a light snowpack yesterday! Truly felt like a rare throwback month instead of a solid month that we had to squeeze out every last drop of potential for. It could have been much colder had the die fallen in an even slightly different configuration. Probably my favorite November since 2010.

Indeed.  2010 was pretty incredible going from low 70s to heavy snow and single digit lows in just a couple of weeks.  This one was very remarkable in its persistent chilliness.  

This year is just off the charts going from top 10% warm months to top 10% cold months like nothing.  Could this be the solar grand minimum coming home to roost, or perhaps Hunga Tonga?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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