PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

2 minute drive up the hill from Georgetown to Burien is like going up a mountain pass. Completely bare to snow on trees, lawns, and side roads. 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be awesome if everyone got a few inches Friday night before heading into the cool dry spell

I would really love a freshen up, not quite enough snow on the ground yet to soothe my soul going into a dry period. C’MON!!!

[....]

Still coming down! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Would be nice if some moisture could work it’s way in here. Seems like there has been a permanent area of showers to the NW of the Portland area that mostly hasn’t budged since yesterday afternoon.

[snow maniac]

Only a 1/4 inch of snow here, was hoping on some today but it dont look good on the radar.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm glad you had that problem too. I thought it was my blower but the snow was like concrete. I was going to message you and ask how yours was working.

Yeah... I was sure my snowblower was having issues but it worked fine last night on the lighter snow that fell in the evening.

[smerfylicious]

Woke up to snow here in Gold Bar. It's coming down nicely and so far I've gotten 1/2" from this band parked over me.

[T-Town]

Dumping. 

[LowerGarfield]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a Portland special on Sunday night...

 

I'd like it to verify for my sake.

[Front Ranger]

Impressive November for the region.

BLI: Coldest since 1985, #4 all-time.

SEA: Coldest since 1985 (barely beating out 1993), #6 all-time.

OLM: Coldest since 1985, #2 all-time.

EUG: Coldest since 2000, #6 all-time.

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Still coming down! 

 Beautiful setting !!!

[Blizzard777]

Whiskey Barrel Falls with gentle snow falling

Fur trees shadow the area so lack of snow around the upper area kind of nice with this setting 

[MossMan]

The view from upstairs. Just 3 more inches that’s all I ask! 

[Timmy]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be nice if some moisture could work it’s way in here. Seems like there has been a permanent area of showers to the NW of the Portland area that mostly hasn’t budged since yesterday afternoon.

Fwiw it’s all rain here 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The view from upstairs. Just 3 more inches that’s all I ask! 

[Perturbed Member]

That shower resulted in 20-25 minutes in rain snow mix, eventually becoming all wet snow. Far from sticking. 34.4F.

It's going to take much more precip intensity for it to work out here. 

 

[SouthHillJimmy]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the South Hill is about to get blasted with snow.

Can confirm, fat flakes flying

[RentonHill]

12z runs want to bring back our pacific ridge much better than previous runs

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Enough for a deck dusting here in the hills of New Fresno.

November finished at 47.9 / 34.5 / 5.09"

That dusting is about what I got last night.

[RentonHill]

https://ecmwfevents.com/i/d34bcd1e-aec1-452d-b2d2-7a054995805a

Free to listen in to hear more about the history of the Euro ensembles. Starts at 930

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nws already Thinking snow levels with this next system will struggle to rise. few inches look likely.

[gusky]

I'm not good at predicting the motion of this stuff. Chances this makes it over to the central sound?

[Perturbed Member]

By Friday night we have a nice east wind and the Euro and GFS soundings scream snow with a temp in the mid 30s and DP in the low 20s. It looks like a textbook setup for a classic east wind snowstorm in PDX but it won't happen because this sadistic low can't be bothered to be a 50-100 miles further east and it will instead blue ball us by dropping some more snow in the coast range as it flies to the south. There's gotta be a way to petition this thing to reconsider?! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

[gusky]

Nice upward trend in 24h snow in Seattle on the EPS for friday

[joelgombiner]

Looking forward to seeing the regional snow cover on the satellite imagery today as things clear out.  

[gusky]

Seems to be pretty quiet here this morning, wonder what's going on.

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

I'm not good at predicting the motion of this stuff. Chances this makes it over to the central sound?

I was wondering the same, but it seems like most of the moisture is getting eaten up before it reaches us.  Fingers crossed though!

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

Hopefully it moistens up just a little more…C’MON!!! 

[gusky]

Just now, WeatheringLoyalHeights said:

I was wondering the same, but it seems like most of the moisture is getting eaten up before it reaches us.  Fingers crossed though!

Yeah it is pretty clearly diminishing frame by frame. Would love a flurry or 2 over here though!

[gusky]

Surprisingly, GEFS and EPS are pretty well aligned for Fri/Sat system. Not looking like a huge event but could give some more light coatings like the past few days.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a Portland special on Sunday night...

 

This is starting to look promising for them.  They deserve it!

[Randyc321]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

The NAM and the WRF are quite different.  Hope the WRF is more correct. WRF shows hours of snow.  Looks like it could be a Kitsap centric event.  Need some snow here, nothing to show for the cold yet but a bunch of ice.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, gusky said:

Seems to be pretty quiet here this morning, wonder what's going on.

People are just exhausted from the last couple of days.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Temp dropping, it was 26 at 7am and is now down to 24 with the DP at 11 under filtered sun

[Meatyorologist]

46 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Impressive November for the region.

BLI: Coldest since 1985, #4 all-time.

SEA: Coldest since 1985 (barely beating out 1993), #6 all-time.

OLM: Coldest since 1985, #2 all-time.

EUG: Coldest since 2000, #6 all-time.

It felt like it came with hardly any effort either... Significant cold anomalies piled up during almost every weather pattern this November had to offer as local climo beat out red 500mb height maps. We took advantage of clear nights, inversions, cold troughing, and even a light snowpack yesterday! Truly felt like a rare throwback month instead of a solid month that we had to squeeze out every last drop of potential for. It could have been much colder had the die fallen in an even slightly different configuration. Probably my favorite November since 2010.

[runninthruda206]

Really would like Fri night to deliver here in Fremont! Haven’t seen any snow on the ground yet 

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, gusky said:

Seems to be pretty quiet here this morning, wonder what's going on.

Catching up on work and sleep. This was a very long week lol

[gusky]

Lots of blocking on GEFS, EPS means for 1st half of December. Seems like late December might be the time to watch. 

[snow_wizard]

The legit cold is flooding in from Seattle northward right now.  Sumas is at a bone chilling 22, while Everett is 32 with a dp of 25.  Looks like low dew points have made it as far south as West Point near Seattle.

[T-Town]

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

Nice. Looks nice and snowy for our Friday night at Alderbrook. Might have to make the trip out to Hama Hama optional depending on road conditions. 

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Friday night looks like a traditional overrunning event for Olympia North. Will be starting with a colder airmass and flow looks like it stays offshore the entire time. The Monkey wrench will be how much drying Develops  east of the sound. A widespread 2-6 inches look like a solid estimate if things stay the same as the 12z runs today. 

Another great thing you noted yesterday was that arcing precipitation bands like the one incoming Friday usually end up displaced further north/east away from the low than modeled. Could mean more precip for much of the area. Euro looks like it catches onto this and is much juicier than the GFS.

[RentonHill]

GEFS just a little different 

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People are just exhausted from the last couple of days.

Yeah, staying up late paired with little results in the form of snow much of the time definitely tests my patience. Still going strong though

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Another great thing you noted yesterday was that arcing precipitation bands like the one incoming Friday usually end up displaced further north/east away from the low than modeled. Could mean more precip for much of the area. Euro looks like it catches onto this and is much juicier than the GFS.

IMO this event Tomorrow has the best chance of delivering a widespread event compared to the last 2 events. Plus It's my 50th Birthday!!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It felt like it came with hardly any effort either... Significant cold anomalies piled up during almost every weather pattern this November had to offer as local climo beat out red 500mb height maps. We took advantage of clear nights, inversions, cold troughing, and even a light snowpack yesterday! Truly felt like a rare throwback month instead of a solid month that we had to squeeze out every last drop of potential for. It could have been much colder had the die fallen in an even slightly different configuration. Probably my favorite November since 2010.

Indeed.  2010 was pretty incredible going from low 70s to heavy snow and single digit lows in just a couple of weeks.  This one was very remarkable in its persistent chilliness.  

This year is just off the charts going from top 10% warm months to top 10% cold months like nothing.  Could this be the solar grand minimum coming home to roost, or perhaps Hunga Tonga?

[TacomaWx]

Close to 3” here in central Tacoma. Think there’s a bit less at my house but not too much less. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice. Looks nice and snowy for our Friday night at Alderbrook. Might have to make the trip out to Hama Hama optional depending on road conditions. 

I thought Hamma was double M's.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Close to 3” here in central Tacoma. Think there’s a bit less at my house but not too much less. 

You ended up close to what I got in total.  The dice rolled your way this morning.