PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

06Z NAM 3K to be fair actually was a bit improved in showing consistent precip over the metro area-- but yeah, RGEM was a step back. To be fair, things haven't been very consistent w that model-- it's surprising how insistent the GFS is on this solution.

[RCola]

1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

About 2 inches in Capitol Hill and an inch Beacon Hill, down by water so far noting but starting to whiten up.

Makes sense with elevation. I don't envy folks trying to park up any hills in Seattle tonight. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Switching between sleet and snow 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

06Z NAM 3K to be fair actually was a bit improved in showing consistent precip over the metro area-- but yeah, RGEM was a step back. To be fair, things haven't been very consistent w that model-- it's surprising how insistent the GFS is on this solution.

That's fair, I did notice the 3km was better.

The GFS is pretty much calling for 1/10/17 version 2. This is the new upgraded GFS I believe. It will either look like a genius or a total joke after this. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Switching between sleet and snow 

Nothing but snow here and just had a real blast of it come through.  Really white out there now.

[TT-SEA]

Feel asleep... my UW son called me and woke me up to ask about the snow.    I see the burst between 1-2 is happening in Seattle just like the ECMWF showed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Good news. Low level cold is now intensifying. I had bumped back up to 40.5, and earlier the winds were keeping my temperature steady, but the past 45 minutes the winds have become very gusty and temps/dewpoints are nose diving now 37.5, dewpoint 25.9. The first signs of that low level arctic air in the Columbia Basin surging into the Gorge and east of I-205.

[Meatyorologist]

 

Went on a walk. Still buzzed after a party I threw this evening. Phenomenal day and a fitting end to the night. I love this place, this is the stuff I live for.

At my house there's about 75% of the snow I saw 200' up on top of the hill. Still white everywhere.

 

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like it won't be quite cold enough up here. Temperature stalled out at 34F and more rain starting to mix in with the snow. No accumulation, but it was kind of fun to watch the waves of rain and snow for a couple hours.

[TT-SEA]

My son also told me it was dumping snow here at home... based on the radar.    Which is not true.   Just flurries here and no accumulation.  The ECMWF nailed the overall coverage very well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift

6z GFS through Day 6

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift

6z GFS through Day 6

I was rudely awaken and feel like crap.   No idea how you do this every night!   I need to go back to sleep.   

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I was rudely awaken and feel like crap.   No idea how you do this every night!   I need to go back to sleep.   

A lot of crack. Nah. I dunno sometimes myself.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ended up with 4 wet inches of snow! Wow!!

[Gradient Keeper]

What is this snow you speak of? It sounds neat. I see pictures of it, but I can't remember. White rain I guess. One day maybe I'll be able to experience this "snow" here.

12z GFS in 5 hours 14 minutes

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7

that greenland ridging really is nutty.

[Meatyorologist]

Lots of branches snapping. Roommate and I saw plenty falling on our walk back home. We actually ended up helping clear the road of a big branch for a car on the side street since they couldn't get past. Kind of hairy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just shoveled this entire corner and driveway for my finance since she works the morning shift. I am tired. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Lots of branches snapping. Roommate and I saw plenty falling on our walk back home. We actually ended up helping clear the road of a big branch for a car on the side street since they couldn't get past. Kind of hairy.

The only drawback to heavy, wet snow especially with calm conditions. It's just solid cake cementing on everything. Where I live 95% of the time its a dry powder.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

The only drawback to heavy, wet snow especially with calm conditions. It's just solid cake cementing on everything. Where I live 95% of the time its a dry powder.

The way I see it, it's a part of the deal. Culling the weak branches that would be much more dangerous flying around as unpredictable projectiles during a windstorm anyways.

[The Blob]

39 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

I'll take the 11.4in.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just shoveled this entire corner and driveway for my finance since she works the morning shift. I am tired. 

Nicely done. Back during the massive December 2008 snowpocalypse on Christmas Eve I shoveled the driveway and a large path all the way to the end of our cul-de-sac something like 250 feet in hopes our family friends could make it for our annual Christmas Eve get-together and dinner. After hours of shoveling of snow just over 2 feet in depth with drifts even higher they called and couldn't make it. Lol That SUCKED.

[Gradient Keeper]

42 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

I would say no, but who knows. As you said the GFS has been extremely persistent on this deformation band solution.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS continues to trend snowier for Sunday! Hmmm....

Snowfall totals ending 4 AM Monday (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the Night Shift 6z GFS

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Very dynamic run!

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS continues to trend snowier for Sunday! Hmmm....

Snowfall totals ending 4 AM Monday (4-run trend)

Still awake. 

And wow!!   The 06Z GFS would be amazing for Portland.

 

[Loniu7]

Still dumping snow! Lost power about an hour ago . They forecasted 1-3 inches currently have about 6! Before they suddenly threw the quick winter warning up. Oops. Maybe it was a hard call?But I don’t mind the surprise

[Gradient Keeper]

That's it for me off to my warm bed. Enjoy your snow while you can! Have a good night or morning.

[Meatyorologist]

I really really really hope this works out for Portland! Y'all deserve something out of this. Already got our fix of heavy, wet accumulating snow, around 1.5" here tonight.

[The Blob]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still awake. 

And wow!!   The 06Z GFS would be amazing for Portland.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Looks like precip will start out as snow throughout the Willamette Valley Sunday morning. @TigerWoodsLibido, I'm looking at you! Hope you get some snow again!

[Meatyorologist]

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I really really really hope this works out for Portland! Y'all deserve something out of this. Already got our fix of heavy, wet accumulating snow, around 1.5" here tonight.

It needs to happen Sunday, I want out of work.

[Meatyorologist]

Judging by ensemble trends, mid-month looks like the next best chance for an Arctic outbreak in the lowlands.

[Meatyorologist]

Up to 33F as the last heavy band lifts through. Behind this precip ends and temps warm further. I'll do one last measurement soon.

[Meatyorologist]

Actually starting to mix with rain now. Probably isothermic just above freezing going from the surface up to ~2-3k feet.

1.5" storm total, 2" total on the day. 2.75" on the season. On Dec 3rd!

[RayRay]

5 inches here…

[Meatyorologist]

Already more snow and cold than the entirety of winter 2019-20

[MillCreekMike]

Wow! Just woke up and we had no accumulation overnight here in downtown Everett at 170’. Not what I was expecting but oh well. About to drive to work in Mill Creek close to 500’ so I’m sure it’s going to look a lot different.

[bainbridgekid]

Just got home to South Everett and there’s 3” of new snow from tonight. 6 plus inches on the ground just about everywhere now and that’s already 8.5” on the season. 

[snow maniac]

only 2 inches all night of wet heavy snow.

grand total this winter is 2.5 inches lame.

may have been more last night looks like its been raining for awhile.

[....]

I got nothin. 

[snow maniac]

10 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

I got nothin. 

Dam that sucks, sorry to hear. Lets hope we can score later this winter.

[Kayla]

I honestly have no idea what timezone I'm in right now but I'm having so much fun tracking and seeing all the pictures from you guys!

I'm really hoping Portland can get in on the fun Sunday night! It's looking very promising. I will say the ECMWF seems to have a dry bias thus far this season so I'm hopeful for my PDX peeps!

[snow maniac]

Woke up at 3:00 this morning to watch the snow only to see rain at 32.0 and only measly 2 inches of sloppy snow.

such a letdown. 

[Requiem]

Yeah pack it up, no way Mt. Scott is getting any snow sadly