PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Winter is canceled 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve seen worse runs than the 06z GFS but it was not super cold or inspiring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Woke up to bright moonlight shining through the window. Completely clear now and 29. Freeze #27 if we are counting such things. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

35F and foggy.

[....]

All that snow, and not even a 2hr delay for Yelm SD. I am a little miffed and confused. 

Sat at 32* pretty much all night. 

[Gradient Keeper]

28.6 here far more clearing than expected or modeled. PDX even dipped to 30! Not bad.

12z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Breaking news. Heaven and earth move and PDX scores a rare freeze. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I see the 6z GFS kept the potential southerly wind event/storm on the table for Saturday. Simulated IR shows it well with the classic curl/comma signature.

[....]

Went out to warm up the car, and we have a light rain/mist falling. 32.2* DP 31.5*

[Gradient Keeper]

I may or may not be available for the 12z GFS in 50 minutes.

It will be interesting to see if this run continues to show the possible southerly wind/event storm for Saturday. The pattern with the deep trough and axis near the coast does bare watching closely. I think we're all caught up on looking for the next cold trough and potential lowland snow chances and this possible wind event/storm may sneak up on us. We'll see.... Long range it would be nice to see a continued chilly NWLY flow or the ridge to become even more favorable yanking that bitter air in British Columbia southward over us.

[hawkstwelve]

This will be the view of the PNW come January as you all finally get that monkey off your back!

 

[MossMan]

Currently 26.8 

[fubario]

10 hours ago, yellowstone said:

I think we’ve had enough South sound specials this month…

how dare u

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21.2˚F.

[LowerGarfield]

Still over forecasted but this morning we had an inch of new powder. Not quite the two inches I wanted but enough to play in (just barely).So far I'm at 1.20 for the event. I will reset the board at lunch when it is over.

[Doinko]

We had a tiny bit of snow on this day 6 years ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like very low snow levels Saturday morning on the GFS. 

[Blizzard777]

Pretty much a flat line temperature wise since 2pm yesterday. 
Currently 34* with a dp 29 

 

[Seattle]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

21.2˚F.

Meanwhile SEA couldn't get below 35 

[Weiner Warrior]

[FroYoBro]

Looks like a lot of mountain snow after our short break at the start of this week. 

[Doinko]

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

22 and very fine flurries/ice crystals falling.  just shovelled and blowed the driveway, front steps and sidewalk.  looks like about 1.5-2" from yesterday and last nights event.  looks like constant flurries/showers through wednesday when a stormier pattern takes over.  snow in the forecast through the foreseeable future.  I'll take it.  may start running out of places to put the snow piles though.  we live in a garden home community so very little front yard.  just a grass storm water ditch out by the street after our small yard fills up.  I've been blowing a lot of it out in the street and this years plow guy luckily understands to plow it to the other side of the street where there is not a driveway and to avoid berms when possible.  last year we got plowed in while out of town and it froze solid so high I couldn't get my car out for a month.  had to drive the wife's subaru over the berm until it got warm and softened up to shovel. I've lined up my landscapers for snow removal this year while we're on the east coast for xmas > NYE.  Hoping to avoid berms this season.

[Phishy Wx]

oh and btw.  has SEA got their shiit together yet?  I have to fly through there tomorrow for a quick biz trip up to Vancouver on Tues/Wed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gotta wonder how much of this low level fog and stratus in the Willamette Valley is going to break up today. Coming down the hill the fog started around 1200'. 

[gusky]

Everyone seems very hyped for snow... what did I miss? Been busy the last few days.

[High Desert Mat?]

15 minutes ago, gusky said:

Everyone seems very hyped for snow... what did I miss? Been busy the last few days.

You almost missed a Jimeltdown and FIFA. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

47 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

 

Ideal storm track

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From the 400 pages here and the 1500 post's from me the important lesson here is snow will not stick to warm pavement.

Cliff Mass for president!!

[Snownerd3000]

Based on the Teleconnection forecasts of a positive PNA mid month, that things might not be the best for lowland snow for Christmas and NYE.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

MEGA Mountain snow the next week.

[Meatyorologist]

Looks like a pattern reset may be in order to end the month... Sets us up nicely for a January 1703 redux.

In all seriousness, it does not feel like winter ends in early December this year. Jan/Feb will offer great potential.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

MEGA Mountain snow the next week.

Was about to say that... Might challenge some all time 72 hour snowfall records above the passes where single digit weather and constant precip will thump feet of snow with ease.

[joelgombiner]

Playing around with the new AI tools... lol 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

oh and btw.  has SEA got their shiit together yet?  I have to fly through there tomorrow for a quick biz trip up to Vancouver on Tues/Wed

Welcome up! Wednesday is an in-office day for me if you can meet for lunch (I work in Gastown near the steam clock).

[Front Ranger]

Disappointing (and kinda hard to believe) that SEA didn't pick up anything measurable yesterday. But they still managed 4.4" this past week, not too shabby.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Disappointing (and kinda hard to believe) that SEA didn't pick up anything measurable yesterday. But they still managed 4.4" this past week, not too shabby.

Observer error! 

[andrewr]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Disappointing (and kinda hard to believe) that SEA didn't pick up anything measurable yesterday. But they still managed 4.4" this past week, not too shabby.

I live about a mile west of the airport and got measurable snow. No way SeaTac didn't as well given they are higher in elevation than me too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Observer error! 

More idiot's Doing important tasks wrong.

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

More idiot's Doing important tasks wrong.

Weather observer is a job that requires very little labor or actual work, but you have to be consistent, focused, and 100% accurate. Not a task that everyone can handle. 

[Kolk1604]

It's so quiet... 

12z EMCWF Day 1 

[Kolk1604]

Day 2 

[Kolk1604]

Day 3 

[Kolk1604]

Day 4 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 34 at SLE as of 10:15am. Could they pull off a 2nd straight sub-40 high?!

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Weather observer is a job that requires very little labor or actual work, but you have to be consistent, focused, and 100% accurate. Not a task that everyone can handle. 

And on one of the maybe 5-10 days that it's actually relevant (i.e. recording snowfall), they screwed the pooch. Honestly doesn't give you a lot of faith in the entire system of climate data when a major station like that is apparently so incompetent. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 sucka!

[Seattle]

Let’s not even talk about the weird 90s missing snow reporting…

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And on one of the maybe 5-10 days that it's actually relevant (i.e. recording snowfall), they screwed the pooch. Honestly doesn't give you a lot of faith in the entire system of climate data when a major station like that is apparently so incompetent. 

Yeah... The sympathetic interpretation is that they were more focused on issues related to airport operations. Recording accurate climate data is probably a secondary goal to ensuring safe take-offs and landings. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 6