PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[GHweatherChris]

29 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This cell needs to keep intensifying and moving north, come on little buddy!!

The bastard is dwindling, cmon man.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Driving down the western Willamette valley and not really seeing any signs of your firmaggedon @SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday snow farther north on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Only very weak offshore at that time with the airmass just cold enough at all levels.  Might be a shot even here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Give me a good ol fashioned arctic blast. This wet snow and marginal temps don’t really do it for me. I like highs below freezing and lows teens or lower for here.  Over there in the valleys I would want the same. That dam ocean!!

Well this has definitely been a very Washington based event. Definitely chilly as heck down here today though. Just been unlucky with the bulk of the precip falling when the airmass is too warm. But I hear you, it would be nice not to have a total slush fest. After the big snows last December, April, and early November, I would love 2-3" and then dry cold. The pics up north are absolutely beautiful though. Snow can be such a blessing in our region. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All plowed out...

How much snow did you end up with Tim, that looks like a solid 8-10" at least? I wish you kept detailed records at your location, I bet you put up some pretty cool numbers, 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just for gits and shiggles, this morning I brought up the closest highway cams to the various places I've lived in the Puget Sound region. With the exception of the place in Shoreline, they had all been skunked in the snow department.

Lots of places got zilch. Don’t take photos posted here as a representative sample; weather weenies are much more likely to post photos of their areas scoring than of their areas getting shafted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Driving down the western Willamette valley and not really seeing any signs of your firmaggedon @SilverFallsAndrew

Hmmm.... As in the lee side of the coast range? The big die offs I noticed were along HWY 224 between Colton and Methdecada. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

It really isn’t that cold out there Jim. I mean is this gonna cut it?

Pretty legit cold moving down the Sound right now.  This is kind of a very limited view of things.  35 with a dp of 25 is way different than 35 with a dp of 33.

[SnarkyGoblin]

The best news to come out this morning is the higher-than-expected outflow from the north.

Moisture will be there - just gotta stay cool as a frozen cucumber.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Weird mix of snow that packed a bit but wouldn't roll into bigger balls for a big snow man. 8 year old did pretty well on her own with a mini guy:

(Figure we got about 4 total inches between Tuesday and Wednesday but didn't measure and it compacted a lot!)

Tongan snow

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How much snow did you end up with Tim, that looks like a solid 8-10" at least? I wish you kept detailed records at your location, I bet you put up some pretty cool numbers, 

It's actually over a foot... but haven't measured today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well this has definitely been a very Washington based event. Definitely chilly as heck down here today though. Just been unlucky with the bulk of the precip falling when the airmass is too warm. But I hear you, it would be nice not to have a total slush fest. After the big snows last December, April, and early November, I would love 2-3" and then dry cold. The pics up north are absolutely beautiful though. Snow can be such a blessing in our region. 

It's been a strange set up, Places that normally get blasted with Polar onshore flow got skunked. The meso low's screwed up the trajectory for many people who do well with onshore flow. I figured you would get nailed last night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

looks like 15 inches or so at Tim's. Please measure it Sir.

[TT-SEA]

Another view that shows the depth better...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another view that shows the depth better...

Measure it please. 

[gusky]

Keep it coming WRF!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

looks like 15 inches or so at Tim's. Please measure it Sir.

Just went and measured just for you... exactly 12 inches on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just for gits and shiggles, this morning I brought up the closest highway cams to the various places I've lived in the Puget Sound region. With the exception of the place in Shoreline, they had all been skunked in the snow department.

Lots of places got zilch. Don’t take photos posted here as a representative sample; weather weenies are much more likely to post photos of their areas scoring than of their areas getting shafted.

It's interesting. I was realizing the snow up there probably wasn't quite as widespread as it appears by reading this forum. Weenies tend to gravitate towards favored locales. 

[FroYoBro]

14 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Give me a good ol fashioned arctic blast. This wet snow and marginal temps don’t really do it for me. I like highs below freezing and lows teens or lower for here.  Over there in the valleys I would want the same. That dam ocean!!

Wait, are you telling me that you like cold and snow in the winter? 
 

 

Rare for this forum.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Just went and measured just for you... exactly 12 inches on the ground.

Thanks Man. You will have snow on the ground a long time. Maybe a few weeks depending how dewpoints play out.

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Keep it coming WRF!

If this verifies it would fill the exact hole in the sound that missed out the last few days hahaha

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another view that shows the depth better...

It's hard to tell from a picture. I believe it, it is a significant amount. 

[Perturbed Member]

New 18z HRRR, shadowed to death. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thanks Man. You will have snow on the ground a long time. Maybe a few weeks depending how dewpoints play out.

Yeah... its possible there will be snow on the ground here all of December.   Just the way I like it!

[gusky]

Important thing on this WRF run is the amount of precip. Much higher than what other models are showing right now

[GHweatherChris]

This is a good example of how the Chehalis Gap can take away a chance of snow here, watch the cell that looked decent coming from the south pretty much dissipate to nothing with 5 miles of here.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

[Deweydog]

No snow here but I did just earn a free bag of chips on my Jimmy Johns app!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's been a strange set up, Places that normally get blasted with Polar onshore flow got skunked. The meso low's screwed up the trajectory for many people who do well with onshore flow. I figured you would get nailed last night.

Yeah, it really has been strange. I'd probably be in full weenie mode about it if we hadn't done so well in early November. We've had snow each of the past few days, but just dustings basically. There was pretty much no moisture here overnight and there have just been a few flurries during the day today so far. Coming off this November, having chilly weather extend into early December, seeing some runs like the 12z GFS show a full on winter Nina pattern continuing. I wouldn't be worried if I was anyone who hadn't scored yet. Even if we go into a dead period for a couple weeks like we did in mid-November, I bet it ends up being cold at the surface. No idea where this winter will go from a historical perspective, maybe it won't even end up that great, but it does seem like we get a real winter this year. 

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

If this verifies it would fill the exact hole in the sound that missed out the last few days hahaha

Yes! Please verify! We got a little lucky with more than expected Tuesday but rare that my neck of the woods is targeted for the most snow in the Seattle metro region.

Flurries continue...

[T-Town]

19 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Weird mix of snow that packed a bit but wouldn't roll into bigger balls for a big snow man. 8 year old did pretty well on her own with a mini guy:

(Figure we got about 4 total inches between Tuesday and Wednesday but didn't measure and it compacted a lot!)

Now that is a PNW snowman. 

[RentonHill]

EPS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR ended up with their 2nd coldest November on record, records at the airport only go back to 1978 though. -11.3 departure on the month and a mean of 23.4, average low was 9.8. 

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This is a good example of how the Chehalis Gap can take away a chance of snow here, watch the cell that looked decent coming from the south pretty much dissipate to nothing with 5 miles of here.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

Now it is nothing.

[bainbridgekid]

High res WRF is actually quite decent for Friday night.

kitsap and Hood Canal should do quite well. Not sure how much moisture will be able to make it East of Puget Sound.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem ended up with a -4.5 departure in November. Somehow they had a positive temp departure yesterday, but 26 days in November had negative departures. 

They also were a big winner in the precip department with 7.87" of rain, 1.92" above average. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, gusky said:

Important thing on this WRF run is the amount of precip. Much higher than what other models are showing right now

Need more. Way more. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can’t beat blue skies and snow

Love blue sky and snow! Such a fun photo

34* and north winds (10-15) began around 9:30

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Noontime temperature: 29.7°F. Maybe a subfreezing high today?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res WRF is actually quite decent for Friday night.

kitsap and Hood Canal should do quite well. Not sure how much moisture will be able to make it East of Puget Sound.

 

Terrible. Starting to remind me of 2016/17 we we kept getting the shaft up here. Or 2007/08.

Edited December 1, 2022 by MossMan

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res WRF is actually quite decent for Friday night.

kitsap and Hood Canal should do quite well. Not sure how much moisture will be able to make it East of Puget Sound.

 

These Upslope events can really smash this area. Even could be more in places than this is showing.