June 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Thunder98]

Its only 55F in Waukesha, Wisconsin at 3PM in Late June! Is that unusual?

 

[Niko]

Its only 55F in Waukesha, Wisconsin at 3PM in Late June! Is that unusual?

 

IMG_1244.PNG

That all depends what the average high is for this date. Although, it does seem a bit nippy for this time of the year.

[Niko]

My temps here in SEMI tonight might be flirting with the 40s. Back to bonfire weather for the time being. Brrr.

[Niko]

Along with the JMA, the CFSv2 is suggesting a cold Antarctic next month.  Of note, Greenland might not have much of a melt season.

 

 

 

 

Saw this tweet by a met and he's comparing this pattern to July '13...pretty darn similar in the Antarctic/Archipelago/Bearing Sea/AK/Russia/Europe/S PAC

 

I hope we can see a repeat of Winter 13-14. Every week I received 2 or more snowstorms, followed by bitter cold air. The ground was snow covered from late November until mid April. Also, it actually snowed in May of that year. It just did not want to quit snowing. My snow piles had remained into the month of May. A winter to remember.

[Tom]

Officially, Sky Harbor reporting a temp of 119F with many locations in the valley already in the low 120's. Highest temp I found is 123F. Let's hit 120F PHX!

[Niko]

Wonder if moisture from TS Cindy will have any effects on the GL'S region.

[james1976]

Looks like a cool weekend. Im looking forward to it!

[jaster220]

Looks like a cool weekend. Im looking forward to it!

 

What a pattern flip from a week ago for SMI, eh? Last Tuesday, my car thermo on my evening commute was reading as high as 101º (aided by hot sun-soaked fresh black pavement), and yesterday some heavy rain was falling with a my dash temp reading 59º at one point. Much much better week, like late Sept actually. Great sleeping wx too!

[Tom]

Unfortunately, we only made it to 119F at PHX yesterday.  Oh, so close...it was the hottest temp I've ever had to endure.  The wind blowing the hot air against your body literally warmed it instead of cooling it!  #LivingInTheDesert

[westMJim]

What a pattern flip from a week ago for SMI, eh? Last Tuesday, my car thermo on my evening commute was reading as high as 101º (aided by hot sun-soaked fresh black pavement), and yesterday some heavy rain was falling with a my dash temp reading 59º at one point. Much much better week, like late Sept actually. Great sleeping wx too!

This is "don't have to" weather that is don't have to have the air on and don't have to have the heat on.  From mid May to mid October we get a lot of these days here in Michigan more than many people think I would guess more than half.

[james1976]

Shower/tstorm complex just moved thru. Temp dropped to 63!

[Tom]

Looking Longer range, GEFS have been growing cooler/wettter for the Midwest/Lakes over the long 4th of July weekend. Looks very active during this period.

[james1976]

1.35" of rain today. Two rounds of storms

[Tom]

Thursday night looks interesting...very high dew points and a strong summer cold front...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062118/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_31.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062118/nam3km_Td2m_ncus_31.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062118/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png

[bud2380]

A very odd day. It rained multiple times and many times even when skies were blue in the distance. I picked up .4"

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.20" today from multiple brief showers.  A few spots around the area, like where James is, received some good totals.  We sure stayed cool today compared to areas farther west and south where it was dry and sunny.

[james1976]

Another 0.30" this morning. And now another round moving in and the main show yet tonight. Ill be in Milwaukee so wont be able to check my gauge til Saturday. Im sure ill get hit while im over there. Kinda nervous about getting hail damage on my new car!

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies are out today and the pattern is locking into an overall wetter/active one for the Midwest/Lakes/S Plains.  If you want the heat, go out west!

 

[Tom]

Antarctica looks brutal next month!  I find it rather interesting that both sides of the earth's Poles will have troughs centered over them.  One stronger than the other given the time of season/year.

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z GFS...Welcome to July!  Might be a preview to a below normal month as a whole...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062212/gfs_T2ma_us_39.png

[OKwx2k4]

Love seeing this map say "0" over me still. I hope I can keep this

 

 

[jaster220]

 

Thursday night looks interesting...very high dew points and a strong summer cold front...

 

Grand Rapids office highlighting the likely T-storms, but they will also be weakening as they cross Lwr MI and head towards Marshall. Prolly be enough noise to spoil my sleep though, as per usual the last several years 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

we're nearly 7 degrees above normal and have had 12 days over 90 degrees already this month. I'm skeptical about any kind of below normal month. A few days, sure, but I'm not holding my breath for any kind of a "cool" month overall. We haven't had one of those in almost 2 YEARS.

[Tom]

18z High Rez NAM suggesting a taste of early Autumn as a cold core trough rotates through MN/WI over the weekend...daytime temps in the low 60's and possibly upper 50's!  #SparkTheBonFire

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062218/nam3km_T2m_ncus_53.png

[BrianJK]

we're nearly 7 degrees above normal and have had 12 days over 90 degrees already this month. I'm skeptical about any kind of below normal month. A few days, sure, but I'm not holding my breath for any kind of a "cool" month overall. We haven't had one of those in almost 2 YEARS.

Agreed

[jaster220]

18z High Rez NAM suggesting a taste of early Autumn as a cold core trough rotates through MN/WI over the weekend...daytime temps in the low 60's and possibly upper 50's!  #SparkTheBonFire

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062218/nam3km_T2m_ncus_53.png

Seems a bit overdone in SWMI. sunny and 68 both days for S Haven as an example

[Tom]

Seems a bit overdone in SWMI. sunny and 68 both days for S Haven as an example

Probably, but wouldn't be surprised if a few spots have low highs for the time of year.

[Hawkeye]

0.59" here from last night's storms.  This is the way it has been going for the last ten days.  I'm getting some to decent rainfall from each little event, but haven't been able to break through with a bigger rain like I usually do in June.  My monthly total is 2.37".  A few spots around eastern Iowa, especially northeast Iowa, have received several inches this month.

[Tom]

I loved heading down to the Lake of the Ozarks, especially the known "Party Cove", looks like it may be an active/wet holiday weekend.  I think their Memorial Day had bad severe storms

.  

 

[Tom]

Here were the JMA weeklies temp forecast for the next month...if you want to "cool" off, head to the south pole!

 

 

 

[Tom]

Close up for the U.S....

 

[Tom]

Places up near the Arrowhead of MN and Northwoods of Wisco will prob not get out of the 50's on Saturday...#RefreshingCanadianAirmass

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062300/nam3km_T2m_ncus_48.png

[jaster220]

Had a couple minimal T-showers yesterday evening at home, but nada overnight when the highest prob's were forecast. Not so much as a rumble of thunder. GRR's really stacking up the busts for T-storms. This is at least the 3rd time they were calling for 70+% of strong storms that never materialized.

[gabel23]

I loved heading down to the Lake of the Ozarks, especially the known "Party Cove", looks like it may be an active/wet holiday weekend.  I think their Memorial Day had bad severe storms

.  

 

That's a good time down there Tom! My in-laws own a place on Osage National Golf Course. We try and make it down once a year, but this year we have been too busy! 

[james1976]

Loving the temp maps for the weekend. Bonfires!

[Tom]

Loving the temp maps for the weekend. Bonfires!

Man, I miss bon fire season. I'll be heading back soon though. Do you ever put potatoes in the coals? I love eating them when the skin gets roasted, topped of with a little salt and butter along with a polish sausage! Mmmm!

[jaster220]

Man, I miss bon fire season. I'll be heading back soon though. Do you ever put potatoes in the coals? I love eating them when the skin gets roasted, topped of with a little salt and butter along with a polish sausage! Mmmm!

 

..making me hungry with that speak

[Hawkeye]

For now, next Wednesday through Friday or Saturday look very active around here on the models.  I hope it stays that way.  A great stretch of cool, dry weather, followed by some good storms and a couple inches of rain, would be a nice way to end the month.

[Tom]

I think it's time to give the A/C's a break after what has been a pretty long stretch of warm and humid days.

 

Speaking of A/C's, they are hummin' here non stop as the heat continues. On the hottest days, between say 2:00-6;00pm, it would run for 15-20 min, turn off for 5 min, repeat. No wonder the avg electric bill here is close to $300/mo during the summer.

 

My body is already kinda used to 110F temps or higher. I think it will be a shock to the system when I come back.

[Niko]

Not sure if its correct, but my lows next week are forecasted to be in the 40's. Thats a true shot of cool air for this time of the year.