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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month?

 

Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :v

This one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area.

 

http://i.imgur.com/GkICjYH.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/lddDFKL.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/zbN3PC2.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/iijFogD.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/tyo6OG4.jpg

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Guest happ

Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month?

 

Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :v

This one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything looks so lush green. Nice photos

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Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53E6EA71-F349-45A6-88D2-331E74D1F64C_zpsy38sidic.png

 

All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A6C06E9-982C-46C8-9D3A-735F800910E1_zpspxznnmeg.png

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Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain:

 

 

 

All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it.

 

 

 

Looks like something similar happened in mid-June of 1995 as well.    Was that also the result of the AAM falling?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice soaking rain this morning. 0.30"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

I'll take it! No sign of the dreaded death ridge or four corners high, either.

 

Look how far south the Bermuda & NPAC highs are suppressed..impressive. This time last year, the death ridge was just starting to develop over TX/NM.

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The 12Z ECMWF is a little different in that time frame...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions.

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Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions.

 

 

EPS disagrees with the operational run... much more troughy.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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New JMA weeklies continue the jet extension until the middle of June, then reverse the entire Pacific pattern into a Niña like GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA with a continental trough centered over the PNW/BC area into the northern Rockies.

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Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

Yeah, but it gets there incorrectly (again). At some point it will shift back westward with the offshore ridge axis.

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Tracking long range models in June is pretty dull. Can't wait til August when we start speculating on the coming winter ❄️.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 12Z Euro gets pretty troughy days 7-10.

 

That is an understatement... might be some record low maxes in that period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could be a nasty heatwave around the third/fourth week of June across much of the country. Several very respected mets are picking up on it now.

 

Oh, and it won't include the PNW. :)

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I thought one of you said a legit heat wave is coming up and wasn't it saying trough for days 7-10 back in the middle of May sometime ago?

It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up model world out there.

 

At least the three consecutive mid-90s over the long weekend panned out.

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Verbatim, this d10-16 pattern would tank those SSTAs:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E08F085A-4A41-446A-8601-8CCBEAF72B25_zpszlz3s83t.png

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Hasn't had much downstream effect yet, but the 00z GFS looks stupid wrong over the NW Pacific and Siberia. Where does that jet extension come from?

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Will be interesting to see what the NH hurricane season does with all this warmth near the equator, and all the cold SSTs at the poles. That's something you'd look for as a precursor to a more active season, globally speaking.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.1.2017.gif

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A little bit of drizzle today. 0.02" this morning. A low of 47, it hit 57 about an hour ago and now back down to 55.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Retrogressive NPAC wave dispersion regime develops during the third week of June following the jet extension/AAM peak.

 

So after ~ a week of troughing, the jet retracts and the subtropical anticyclone attempts to extend poleward. During the retrogression process, it may either provide for a few days of ridging during the third week of June, or it could remain offshore and keep the PNW on the cooler side of average. Eventually the anticyclone will set up shop around the Aleutians/western GOA again.

 

This also marks the end of the generally troughy pattern across the central US, which will be replaced by a stronger anticyclonic regimen and much hotter weather.

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GFS still goes with a classically niña-like convective state for the middle of June and perhaps beyond. Indonesian convection, central Pacific subsidence, and enhanced Atlantic convection as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017060312&fh=-60&xpos=0&ypos=339

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Retrogressive NPAC wave dispersion regime develops during the third week of June following the jet extension/AAM peak.

 

So after ~ a week of troughing, the jet retracts and the subtropical anticyclone attempts to extend poleward. During the retrogression process, it may either provide for a few days of ridging during the third week of June, or it could remain offshore and keep the PNW on the cooler side of average. Eventually the anticyclone will set up shop around the Aleutians/western GOA again.

 

This also marks the end of the generally troughy pattern across the central US, which will be replaced by a stronger anticyclonic regimen and much hotter weather.

Hints of this progression showing up on the CFS weeklies.

 

Note the retraction of the jet during week two and the building anticyclone, following by a flattening of the isobars as the anticyclone slides westward underneath the trough, relocating offshore:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017060306&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=529

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Lol GooFuS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/58F7E3C4-4674-44FB-9DE0-8CC286C092E2_zpswn4bpfw6.jpg

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Is Tim dead?

 

Ha!   Just checked in and this is what I see.

 

I am just following Phil... he basically tells us what will happen weeks in advance and is almost always right with the big picture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ha! Just checked in and this is what I see.

 

I am just following Phil... he basically tells us what will happen weeks in advance and is almost always right with the big picture.

Haha, I was almost worried there for a second. My silly forecasts are meaningless if nobody is here to read them.

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Looks like last month ended up being another dryish month for Victoria-proper, though it would seem I missed the first Thunderstorm here in several years. However, I did end up getting my rain fix in Thailand and Taiwan; rained almost every single day in Thailand with thunderstorms dumping as much as 5" within a couple hours. A typical developing afternoon thunderstorm in the tropical convergence zone:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4278_zpsc38efelv.jpg

 

Then during my short stop in Taipei I got caught in what was apparently the heaviest rains in 21 years as remnants from a cyclone merged with a stationary front. I can easily say that's the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life, the roads/sidewalks turned to rivers, with between 12~24" falling in under 12 hours. They must have an incredible drainage system because by late afternoon when the rain tapered off a bit the city generally looked like this:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4474_zpsygbjp9oe.jpg

 

Can't imagine what places like Seattle or Vancouver would look like if we ever saw that sort of rain.

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