Timmy Supercell Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month? Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :vThis one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area. http://i.imgur.com/GkICjYH.jpg http://i.imgur.com/lddDFKL.jpg http://i.imgur.com/zbN3PC2.jpg http://i.imgur.com/iijFogD.jpg http://i.imgur.com/tyo6OG4.jpg 6 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 That heatwave around the 8th is starting to look pretty legit. #cooljune 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 That heatwave around the 8th is starting to look pretty legit. #cooljuneSomeone's shook. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month? Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :vThis one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area. Everything looks so lush green. Nice photos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 I'm going to predict average. Hope for cooler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Someone's shook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53E6EA71-F349-45A6-88D2-331E74D1F64C_zpsy38sidic.png All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A6C06E9-982C-46C8-9D3A-735F800910E1_zpspxznnmeg.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain: All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it. Looks like something similar happened in mid-June of 1995 as well. Was that also the result of the AAM falling? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Nice soaking rain this morning. 0.30" Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.pngI'll take it! No sign of the dreaded death ridge or four corners high, either. Look how far south the Bermuda & NPAC highs are suppressed..impressive. This time last year, the death ridge was just starting to develop over TX/NM. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 The 12Z ECMWF is a little different in that time frame... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Then again, the GFS has a notable zonal bias in such situations, so perhaps a middle ground approach would be ideal. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions. EPS disagrees with the operational run... much more troughy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 New JMA weeklies continue the jet extension until the middle of June, then reverse the entire Pacific pattern into a Niña like GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA with a continental trough centered over the PNW/BC area into the northern Rockies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.pngYeah, but it gets there incorrectly (again). At some point it will shift back westward with the offshore ridge axis. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 18z ensembles trended warmer in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Tracking long range models in June is pretty dull. Can't wait til August when we start speculating on the coming winter . Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Tracking long range models in June is pretty dull. Can't wait til August when we start speculating on the coming winter . okdjfaoieu nlkdfuapsdoifu moeiaproeirqap! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 okdjfaoieu nlkdfuapsdoifu moeiaproeirqap! Twjgtmbiibomfty. Ymtwlr. Tbwpncbisbsawah. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Twjgtmbiibomfty. Ymtwlr. Tbwpncbisbsawah.Andrew, the president, and a small group of people know exactly what I meant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 The 12Z Euro gets pretty troughy days 7-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 The 12Z Euro gets pretty troughy days 7-10. That is an understatement... might be some record low maxes in that period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 That is an understatement... might be some record low maxes in that period.Take a screenshot since it will change again in about 11 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 So some of you say a heat wave yet some of you say cold trough coming with a jet surpression. Which one is it? You can't have it both ways honey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 The 12Z Euro gets pretty troughy days 7-10.I thought one of you said a legit heat wave is coming up and wasn't it saying trough for days 7-10 back in the middle of May sometime ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 I'm going to predict average. Hope for coolerThere you go! With the models swinging hot to cold that is usually the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Could be a nasty heatwave around the third/fourth week of June across much of the country. Several very respected mets are picking up on it now. Oh, and it won't include the PNW. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Everything looks so lush green. Nice photosYou sure those aren't looking at the Wicklow mountains there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 I thought one of you said a legit heat wave is coming up and wasn't it saying trough for days 7-10 back in the middle of May sometime ago?It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up model world out there. At least the three consecutive mid-90s over the long weekend panned out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 I like the 18z GFS progression much better so far. I think it's on the correct trajectory, at least for now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Verbatim, this d10-16 pattern would tank those SSTAs: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E08F085A-4A41-446A-8601-8CCBEAF72B25_zpszlz3s83t.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hasn't had much downstream effect yet, but the 00z GFS looks stupid wrong over the NW Pacific and Siberia. Where does that jet extension come from? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Where did Tim and Flatiron go? I sort of rely on them to give their counter-analyses. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Will be interesting to see what the NH hurricane season does with all this warmth near the equator, and all the cold SSTs at the poles. That's something you'd look for as a precursor to a more active season, globally speaking. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.1.2017.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Decent NW breeze this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Gorgeous early afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 3, 2017 Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 A little bit of drizzle today. 0.02" this morning. A low of 47, it hit 57 about an hour ago and now back down to 55. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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