Jump to content

June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month?

 

Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :v

This one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area.

 

http://i.imgur.com/GkICjYH.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/lddDFKL.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/zbN3PC2.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/iijFogD.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/tyo6OG4.jpg

  • Like 6

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest happ

Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month?

 

Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :v

This one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes in this area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything looks so lush green. Nice photos

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53E6EA71-F349-45A6-88D2-331E74D1F64C_zpsy38sidic.png

 

All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A6C06E9-982C-46C8-9D3A-735F800910E1_zpspxznnmeg.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, the d14 EPS control run is comical. Check out this sick, winter-like wavetrain:

 

 

 

All of the NH warmth is bottled in the tropics without sufficient convection over the IPWP, and the weak Asian monsoons are only exacerbating it.

 

 

 

Looks like something similar happened in mid-June of 1995 as well.    Was that also the result of the AAM falling?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice soaking rain this morning. 0.30"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It might not just be a western trough late next week... crazy pattern for June.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060112/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

I'll take it! No sign of the dreaded death ridge or four corners high, either.

 

Look how far south the Bermuda & NPAC highs are suppressed..impressive. This time last year, the death ridge was just starting to develop over TX/NM.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z ECMWF is a little different in that time frame...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then again, the GFS has a notable zonal bias in such situations, so perhaps a middle ground approach would be ideal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the ECMWF might be digging the NPAC cyclone too far south offshore. That's a pretty chronic bias of this model following jet extensions.

 

 

EPS disagrees with the operational run... much more troughy.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New JMA weeklies continue the jet extension until the middle of June, then reverse the entire Pacific pattern into a Niña like GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA with a continental trough centered over the PNW/BC area into the northern Rockies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now that is a true western trough on the 18Z GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060118/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

Yeah, but it gets there incorrectly (again). At some point it will shift back westward with the offshore ridge axis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tracking long range models in June is pretty dull. Can't wait til August when we start speculating on the coming winter ❄️.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z Euro gets pretty troughy days 7-10.

 

That is an understatement... might be some record low maxes in that period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be a nasty heatwave around the third/fourth week of June across much of the country. Several very respected mets are picking up on it now.

 

Oh, and it won't include the PNW. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought one of you said a legit heat wave is coming up and wasn't it saying trough for days 7-10 back in the middle of May sometime ago?

It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up model world out there.

 

At least the three consecutive mid-90s over the long weekend panned out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the 18z GFS progression much better so far. I think it's on the correct trajectory, at least for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verbatim, this d10-16 pattern would tank those SSTAs:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E08F085A-4A41-446A-8601-8CCBEAF72B25_zpszlz3s83t.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hasn't had much downstream effect yet, but the 00z GFS looks stupid wrong over the NW Pacific and Siberia. Where does that jet extension come from?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will be interesting to see what the NH hurricane season does with all this warmth near the equator, and all the cold SSTs at the poles. That's something you'd look for as a precursor to a more active season, globally speaking.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.1.2017.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little bit of drizzle today. 0.02" this morning. A low of 47, it hit 57 about an hour ago and now back down to 55.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...