June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Here is the EPS 10-15 day mean. This could be a decent pattern here.

 

It does look that way until you analyze the progression of the axis of the isobars. Then the big jet/zonal hose job becomes more apparent. At least in my opinion.

 

There should be a break in there during the third week of June as the wave spacing grows before the retrogression/bigger jet extension (in my opinion), but I think in the end I think it's transient and will yield to another deeper trough.

[TT-SEA]

It does look that way until you analyze the progression of the axis of the isobars. Then the big jet/zonal hose job becomes more apparent. At least in my opinion.

 

There should be a break in there during the third week of June as the wave spacing grows before the retrogression/bigger jet extension (in my opinion), but I think in the end I think it's transient and will yield to another deeper trough.

 

Note sure about a hose job at this time of year.

 

Here was the pattern yesterday... even troughier than the above map and it was a mostly sunny and pleasant day.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060500/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_1.png

[Deweydog]

I think this month will end up around average.

 

That will be $1,000, please.

[DareDuck]

I think this month will end up around average.

 

That will be $1,000, please.

I'll go even ballsier and say +\- 3 standard deviations of average. Yea, I like to live life on the edge.

[Jesse]

I think this month will end up around average.

 

That will be $1,000, please.

 

I also think July will be warmer and drier than June. August might end up that way too.

 

Don't ask me how I do it, it's just a gift.

[TT-SEA]

I also think July will be warmer and drier than June. August might end up that way too.

 

Don't ask me how I do it, it's just a gift.

 

Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July.   

[Jesse]

Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July.   

 

I bet next May will be warmer and drier than next February-April.

 

That's right, a 12-month forecast. Suck it Accuweather.

[TT-SEA]

I bet next May will be warmer and drier than next February-April.

 

That's right, a 12-month forecast. Suck it Accuweather.

 

I am now going to say the exact same thing for 2019.   Two year forecast!   Bam!  

[Jesse]

I am now going to say the exact same thing for 2019.   Two year forecast!   Bam!  

 

Impressively bold. Nailing that kind of call takes a lot of skill.

[TT-SEA]

Impressively bold. Nailing that kind of call takes a lot of skill.

 

 

I know you wanted to take 2020.   Good self control.  

[Jesse]

I know you wanted to take 2020.   Good self control.  

 

I think a combination of the approaching Ice Age and the Democratic candidacy of "The Rock" will be throwing off climo pretty hard by then. February could easily end up warmer and drier than May.

[Front Ranger]

Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July.   

 

In 1976, July was wetter than November at SEA.

 

August was also wetter than December that year. Wacky.

[TT-SEA]

In 1976, July was wetter than November at SEA.

 

August was also wetter than December that year. Wacky.

 

 

That is crazy.  

 

Just checked Snoqualmie Falls... only about 1.25 inches of rain in July 1976 and it was actually a decent month with many days in the mid 70s to low 80s and dry.    Way better than July of 1983 or 1993.   For some reason there is no data for November 1976 for that station.

[Front Ranger]

That is crazy.  

 

Just checked Snoqualmie Falls... only about 1.25 inches of rain in July 1976 and it was actually a decent month with many days in the mid 70s to low 80s and dry.    Way better than July of 1983 or 1993.   For some reason there is no data for November 1976 for that station.

 

Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October.

[TT-SEA]

Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October.

 

Yeah... it turned really nice from August - September.   

 

The odd thing with 1993 was the persistent rain and gloom in July.   

[TT-SEA]

Side note... I was bored on Saturday morning and reviewed the daily records for every summer at Snoqualmie Falls since 1899. Took maybe 15 minutes.

 

The most interesting aspect that stood out when looking at it all together was how dry and warm the JJA period was from 1900-1930. Troughy periods in June seemed to be much less common and July and August had more really warm days.

 

Summers turned wetter and cooler during the 1930s.

 

Look at the summer of 1922 for an example of a incredible summer in my book.

[Phil]

Note sure about a hose job at this time of year.

 

Here was the pattern yesterday... even troughier than the above map and it was a mostly sunny and pleasant day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060500/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_1.png

Check out the precipitation on the EPS mean. That's 2-4" of rain over the next two weeks:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B2E735B-CD11-48FA-8DB9-1392834D441A_zpsyywr3nyh.png

[ShawniganLake]

Check out the precipitation on the EPS mean. That's 2-4" of rain over the next two weeks:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B2E735B-CD11-48FA-8DB9-1392834D441A_zpsyywr3nyh.png

In the mountains. That shows less than 2" for the lowlands. Less than 1" for southern Vancouver island. Usually the bigger rain events here this time of the year seem to come from big looping ULL, something the models don't handle well more than a few days out.

[Phil]

In the mountains. That shows less than 2" for the lowlands. Less than 1" for southern Vancouver island. Usually the bigger rain events here this time of the year seem to come from big looping ULL, something the models don't handle well more than a few days out.

The meteograms I looked at for the cities are between 1-3", yeah, but for mid/late June that's pretty legit since this is more of a cold season type jet extension rather than a big ULL on the EPS.

 

It could be wrong, though.

[BLI snowman]

Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October.

 

A common theme with a lot of our driest years is some really wet dry season months and then weak jetstreams/ridging during the wetter months. We also saw that play out in 2013 with the really wet September and a wet April/May but bone dry most of the rest of the way. Also happened to some extent in 1985 with a wet June and September. 

[Phil]

The ISM is finally trying to pulse up again, and right on cue, the GFS goes into freak out mode. Going to be a long few weeks for long range forecasters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some interesting CFS Monthlies.... Haven't checked them in awhile, but some interesting takeaways today.

 

July: Average temps

August/Sept: Warmer than normal

October: Average to slightly above

November: Below normal temps

December: Very cold signal

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017060600/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_6.png

January: Nationwide blowtorch

February: Warm west, cold east. 

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

Looks like PDX is heading towards their fifth 85+ day of the year today.

[Jesse]

12z Euro was a pretty cool run overall.

[Phil]

18z GFS is completely lost over the NPAC again.

[Jesse]

18z GFS is completely lost over the NPAC again.

It's a shame you aren't a model!

[Phil]

It's a shame you aren't a model!

Lol.

 

It just irritates me to see the same model make the same mistakes over and over again. I'm only to d8, but even by 96hrs it screws up the phasing SE of the Aleutians and starts a runaway pinwheel effect afterwards.

[Front Ranger]

It's a shame you aren't a model!

[TT-SEA]

I highly doubt it works out this way... but the 00Z GFS shows that its basically dry around Seattle on Saturday with a small area of temps slightly above normal in the middle of a deep trough.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_z500aNorm_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png

[Phil]

Death ridge. I'm gonna savor the next few days.

[Jesse]

Cooling off faster tonight than last night.

[TT-SEA]

Death ridge. I'm gonna savor the next few days.

 

 

Only lasts 6 days there per the 00Z GFS.

 

And you have A/C.    

[Phil]

Only lasts 6 days there per the 00Z GFS then back to below normal.

Yeah, but I know how these patterns work. We'll catch a 2-3 day break, then go right back into the furnace. Cold fronts rarely make it here after the solstice, but models love to drive them down here in the fantasy range for whatever reason.

 

Especially the CMC. That model tortured me all of last summer showing day 7-10 troughs that never verified.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but I know how these patterns work. We'll catch a 2-3 day break, then go right back into the furnace. Cold fronts rarely make it here after the solstice, but models love to drive them down here in the fantasy range for whatever reason.

 

Especially the CMC. That model tortured me all of last summer showing day 7-10 troughs that never verified.

 

Yeah... I retracted my statement since it does not really go below normal for long on the GFS

 

Nonetheless... normal is normal.   There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer.   It can't all be hot.   

[Phil]

Yeah... I retracted my statement since it does not really go below normal for long on the GFS

 

Nonetheless... normal is normal. There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer. It can't all be hot.

Yeah, it does go below normal, but those days are often the most humid, where convection initiates early and caps temperatures in the low 80s. Fluky cold fronts, like the one in July of 2014, are the exception.

 

The nicest days are actually the ones with westerly downsloping winds that drop dewpoints into the 50s but keep temps up near/above 90*F. We can actually cool down at night on days like this.

[Jesse]

Nonetheless... normal is normal. There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer. It can't all be hot.

2015 begs to differ.

[TT-SEA]

2015 begs to differ.

 

Not for years on end. This feels like the 20th summer in a row that is record setting hot in DC just going by the comments here.

[Phil]

2015 begs to differ.

As does 2010 here. I think we had 9 cooler than average days that entire summer.

[Phil]

Not for years on end. This feels like the 20th summer in a row that is record setting hot in DC just going by the comments here.

What's that saying about stones and glass houses? "Hot" and "hotter than average" have different meanings, my friend.