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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Glad to help remind you. It can be easy to want to forget about major busts like that. At the time you seemed pretty sure about it.

 

Calling for a warmer than average May around the time the models started trending warmer for the second half of the month was impressive, though. You can most certainly keep that one. Getting ahead of yourself and going for a top 10 warm month was also pretty understandable given the context. All the winning started going to your head.

 

I started calling for a warm May in April. Who gives a . Apply the butt cream, move on.

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Today should pull OLM's monthly departure into negative territory, joining EUG/SLE/PDX.

 

PDX: -5

OLM: -4

SLE: -2

SEA -3

EUG: -4

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Even adding two degrees into the EPS mean, verbatim, about 41/51 members would have June finish with a negative anomaly at all stations (except maybe SEA). The 00z GEFS mean would finish below normal at all stations including SEA.

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Even adding two degrees into the EPS mean, verbatim, about 41/51 members would have June finish with a negative anomaly at all stations (except maybe SEA). The 00z GEFS mean would finish below normal at all stations including SEA.

 

I don't think PDX, SLE, and EUG are subject to the Puget Sound region cool bias.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I don't think PDX, SLE, and EUG are subject to the Puget Sound region cool bias.

I know the ECMWF nailed the departures at EUG/PDX. I didn't pay enough attention to SLE though.

 

SEA was still +1.6 as of this morning, so it'll be tough to bring it down below average. The rest should be much easier given essentially all of the modeling depicts the next two weeks running cooler than average overall (especially the last week of June which could be moderately to significant cooler than average).

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101 indeed. The earliest 100 was actually on 6/10/2008 (teleconnection to our massive trough on that day), while the previous earliest 101 was on 6/26/1952.

Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

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I know the ECMWF nailed the departures at EUG/PDX. I didn't pay enough attention to SLE though.

 

SEA was still +1.6 as of this morning, so it'll be tough to bring it down below average. The rest should be much easier given essentially all of the modeling depicts the next two weeks running cooler than average overall (especially the last week of June which could be moderately to significant cooler than average).

 

Seattle WFO was running +1.3 and BLI +1.5, so it's not like SEA is way out there ahead of the rest of the Puget Soud region this month.

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Seattle WFO was running +1.3 and BLI +1.5, so it's not like SEA is way out there ahead of the rest of the Puget Soud region this month.

Well, it's basically a bubble of warmth around the Sound, so yeah it's not confined to one station. The bubble might not survive the last week of June anyway, so perhaps this is a moot point.

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Well, it's basically a bubble of warmth around the Sound, so yeah it's not confined to one station. The bubble might not survive the last week of June anyway, so perhaps this is a moot point.

 

The bubble survives even when its below normal if that area is still warmer (compared to average) than the region around it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The bubble survives even when its below normal if that area is still warmer (compared to average) than the region around it.

Yeah, I guess that's true. Though modeling does like the northern zones for cooler anomalies relative to southern zones until the trough really digs in during the last week of the month.

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Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

 

I'm kinda curious too. I don't know. 

 

It seems like they've normally run closer to Central Park and JFK, just by looking at some of the bigger heat waves. I.e. on 7/6/2010 it was 103-103-101 at the three stations. On 7/22/2011 it was 104-104-103. Looking further back to 7/3/1966, when LGA hit 107, it was 104 & 103 at the other two stations. Makes me think something funky is going on. 

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Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

 

I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

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I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

You're an a**. :)

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00Z ECMWF is quite a bit warmer for next week compared to the last couple runs.

It's like the GFS and ECMWF swapped biases. Now the GFS throws a ton of energy back under the retrograding anticyclone while the ECMWF is over-dampening the wavetrain during the mass displacement cycle. End result should be somewhere in between the two solutions.

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I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

 

Not enough sweat if you ask me. I thought this was summer. <_>

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Bias-corrected 00z GEFS came in more bullish and coherent with the retrogression. Waiting to see what the 00z EPS decides to do.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D9F9DA65-EA70-4735-85F9-CD0BD9D914EF_zpsejjjbz6n.gif

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Any sign of a multi-day heatwave is kind of gone from the ensembles now...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Temp departures in Oregon for June so far.

 

Astoria: -0.8

EUG: -1.4

PDX: -0.7

SLE: -0.3

RDM: -1.1

K-Falls: -1.5

MDF: -1.4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, distinct N/S warm/cool gradient for June so far, which should even out over the next week or so. OR looks pretty warm from Sunday on.

12z GFS ensembles suggest that northern Oregon may cool off as well, after Sunday/Monday.

IMG_2699.PNG

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The d6-10 period is gonna be very rough for the models.

 

Those residual low heights in central Canada during the tropically-forced retrogression will make for a very complicated exchange as the SW US anticyclone weakens.

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The d6-10 period is gonna be very rough for the models.

 

Those residual low heights in central Canada during the tropically-forced retrogression will make for a very complicated exchange as the SW US anticyclone weakens.

 

Long ways out but that low on the 18z GFS looks incredibly chilly for late June! Snow at face value here with some crazy surface and upper air temp departures. Would be fun to see verify.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I was looking back at daily records for the Snoqualmie Valley... I think this June might end up with more days below 70 than June 2011.    There were 20 days in June 2011 at or above 70 in the valley... only 5 so far this month.   We would need to run out the month above 70.   Not going to happen.  

 

I completely forgot about how nice it was during the entire week of the 4th of July in 2011.   That was a pretty nice summer in retrospect.   There was rain on just 9 days in the entire Jul-Sept period. 

 

June 2012 was pretty bad.   But the reward was an absolutely perfect Jul-Sept period.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was looking back at daily records for the Snoqualmie Valley... I think this June might end up with more days below 70 than June 2011. There were 20 days in June 2011 at or above 70 in the valley... only 5 so far this month. We would need to run out the month above 70. Not going to happen.

 

I completely forgot about how nice it was during the entire week of the 4th of July in 2011. That was a pretty nice summer in retrospect. There was rain on just 9 days in the entire Jul-Sept period.

 

June 2012 was pretty bad. But the reward was an absolutely perfect Jul-Sept period.

This post reminded me of the fact I don't remember much of anything about June 1998.

 

Edit: I do remember getting in a car wreck that month with a friend of mine. Not weather related.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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