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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week... 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061600/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_31.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week...

I think it's safe to say this won't happen:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg

 

Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nope

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I think it's safe to say this won't happen:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg

 

Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nope

So PNW gets a trough instead.

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Interestingly... the 00Z GEM looks similar at the same time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017061600/gem_z500aNorm_namer_37.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So PNW gets a trough instead.

Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore.

 

Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up.

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Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore.

 

Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up.

 

Good analogy.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Did you guys see the latest JAMSTEC for DJF? It has a -PDO and colder than normal surface temps. That would be crazy to have two winters in a row of above normal snow. This year was crazy.

Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow.
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Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow.

 

 

Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal.   Not sure if that is the case. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal. Not sure if that is the case.

That is a valid point. Years like '96 would be more above normal than a snowless winter would be below normal.

 

I think the last stretch of above normal snow years in SW BC would be 06/07, 07/08, 08/09.

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SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours.      Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37 

 

Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours. Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37

 

Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping.

Why aren't you outside enjoying it?

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ECMWF looks just like the GFS and GEM for late next week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061600/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Man is it humid or what!  The strong (storm) which isn't really only netted about 0.20 of rain.   Maybe I got rainshadowed or the storm went up north to Washington but it didn't even get windy either.  I can't say for the coast if the high wind advisory wind up being dropped. 

 

It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.  I hope this isn't a trend and is just a random blip.   Please don't let us go back to 2013 warmth.

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Isn't it your bedtime now? It's almost 3am!

We just got back from doing this. Pretty sure I was the only one posting on a weather forum at the time.

 

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Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.

Boy it's humid.  The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.

giphy.gif

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Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.

Boy it's humid. The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.

You have really awful memes.

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You have really awful memes.

Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night.

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12z GFS lost that crazy trapped ULL in the clown range.

 

12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At least you have the recent rock solid consistency of the models on your side.

 

 

On my side?   I have no frickin clue what will happen.   I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate.   Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close.    He is better than any one model.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.

I didn't really mean anything by that. More a poke at the models.

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12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

It was closer to losing it this time, though. Backed that BC shortwave/ULL westward last minute to produce the phase but that's probably bulls***t.

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On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.

I appreciate the rave review, but I think you might be overestimating my abilities. :)

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Oregon is going to perform much better than Washington with the upcoming warm stretch. At PDX, 6/15 days feature warm anomalies, while SEA only gets 3/15 days, verbatim.

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The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113

 

The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1

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The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113

 

The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1

 

ouch!

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