TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061600/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_31.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 7-10-08! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Did you guys see the latest JAMSTEC for DJF? It has a -PDO and colder than normal surface temps. That would be crazy to have two winters in a row of above normal snow. This year was crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week...I think it's safe to say this won't happen: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nope Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 I think it's safe to say this won't happen: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nopeSo PNW gets a trough instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Interestingly... the 00Z GEM looks similar at the same time. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017061600/gem_z500aNorm_namer_37.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 So PNW gets a trough instead.Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore. Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore. Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up. Good analogy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Did you guys see the latest JAMSTEC for DJF? It has a -PDO and colder than normal surface temps. That would be crazy to have two winters in a row of above normal snow. This year was crazy.Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow. Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal. Not sure if that is the case. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Rain has been pounding on the roof all evening. Sounds like November. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal. Not sure if that is the case.That is a valid point. Years like '96 would be more above normal than a snowless winter would be below normal. I think the last stretch of above normal snow years in SW BC would be 06/07, 07/08, 08/09. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours. Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37 Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours. Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37 Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping.Why aren't you outside enjoying it? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Why aren't you outside enjoying it?Isn't it your bedtime now? It's almost 3am! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 ECMWF looks just like the GFS and GEM for late next week. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061600/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Man is it humid or what! The strong (storm) which isn't really only netted about 0.20 of rain. Maybe I got rainshadowed or the storm went up north to Washington but it didn't even get windy either. I can't say for the coast if the high wind advisory wind up being dropped. It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date. I hope this isn't a trend and is just a random blip. Please don't let us go back to 2013 warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Isn't it your bedtime now? It's almost 3am!We just got back from doing this. Pretty sure I was the only one posting on a weather forum at the time. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Rain has been pounding on the roof all evening. Sounds like November.Oh you stole it all! Okay not all we got 0.20 but boy it's humid. The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.Boy it's humid. The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal. Not sure if that is the case. It is. Median snowfall runs probably 40-60% below mean snowfall throughout the PNW lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Ended up with 0.84" yesterday, my 2nd wettest June day at this location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 PDX is finally up to normal for the month to date, precip wise. Temps running about a degree below normal now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.Boy it's humid. The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.You have really awful memes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 You have really awful memes.Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 12z GFS lost that crazy trapped ULL in the clown range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 12z GFS lost that crazy trapped ULL in the clown range. 12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it... At least you have the recent rock solid consistency of the models on your side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 At least you have the recent rock solid consistency of the models on your side. On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 The temperature anomaly has been cool so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.I didn't really mean anything by that. More a poke at the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 The temperature anomaly has been cool so far. ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png Unfortunately the cool anomaly for California is turning radically warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.pngIt was closer to losing it this time, though. Backed that BC shortwave/ULL westward last minute to produce the phase but that's probably bulls***t. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night.Touché. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.I appreciate the rave review, but I think you might be overestimating my abilities. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Oregon is going to perform much better than Washington with the upcoming warm stretch. At PDX, 6/15 days feature warm anomalies, while SEA only gets 3/15 days, verbatim. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113 The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113 The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1 ouch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice afternoon... partly cloudy and 67 here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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