ShawniganLake Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice afternoon... partly cloudy and 67 here.Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy.Still just 63 down here with mostly cloudy skies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 59 here and mostly cloudy. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 59 here and mostly cloudy. Strange. You must be too far south. 68 at SEA now. Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon? Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Strange. You must be too far south. 68 at SEA now. Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon? Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since. That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out. And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 59 here and mostly cloudy.You just got yourself on the list buddy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out. And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS. Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain. There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week. We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period. Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Good example again today... 12Z ECMWF this morning showed a high of 64 at SEA. Just 12 hours later its 68. GFS MOS had 68 at SEA today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain. There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week. We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period. Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure.The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm. Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Wow. Looking into the SV archives, the GFS MOS has actually busted warm on all but two days this month. I didn't realize it sucked that bad. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm.Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch.Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound.Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm? I can't remember. I don't think there are errors more consistently in one direction in the cold season. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 You just got yourself on the list buddy! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 All the small seasonal streams around here that only run when its really wet in the winter are roaring today. That was some intense rain for 24 hours here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 When models get fidgety, the "forums" get fidgety, I usually just trust Mark in his forecasts. The dude is almost always spot on and brings reality back, especially inthe winter. Wait a minute, I trust his forecasts more than all anyways.... not sure what I was just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 What do you think Phil, some on here put you on that scale, do you feel like you're on Marks perch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Got up to 98 here in NE Oklahoma today. Heat Index forecast to hit 107 tomorrow...Good lord... This week has been quite a shock to the system. Beautiful sunset tonight... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy. Sure bounced back quickly, made it up to 71F here today and it was warm/sunny most of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 What do you think Phil, some on here put you on that scale, do you feel like you're on Marks perch?No. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Sure bounced back quickly, made it up to 71F here today and it was warm/sunny most of the day. 12Z ECMWF said the high would be 64 there today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just got back to Bend from southern CA. 56 and mostly cloudy here right now, was between 98-102 for about 5-6 hours today in the Central Valley. I was already through Sacramento at 2pm so I missed the heat in the southern part of the valley. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Sure bounced back quickly, made it up to 71F here today and it was warm/sunny most of the day.YYJ actually managed a +4F anomaly on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 How hard is it to find the average of two numbers? Hilarious. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/324248FE-0D67-411A-8A8A-554224454D07_zpspkiuenlp.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 You have really awful memes.Not trying to have any memes. Your just looking for something that doesn't exist and don't want to admit it was a warm weather system or maybe your too far north to feel it. Down here it didn't go below 60F at night and the reason it felt (sticky) was because we have had many nights at or below 50F this spring. People around here also mentioned it was warm. But that was just that one night. Now it's back to normal and I am not one to complain about that!. I hope the majority of this summer doesn't stray too far from normal. Even if we have a few hot days thrown in the mix. If we do have hot weather this summer do you think it will be a lot of humidity (for Oregon) or the dry heat that usually happens? Also do you think hot weather will be more of a (late) event as in August/September? From reading Phil's posts that seems to be the case. Hopefully we have good fall colours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Heat index of 113 forecast for today now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Heat index of 113 forecast for today now. So you were going to be outside enjoying 107 but 113 means you stay in the A/C? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 How hard is it to find the average of two numbers? Hilarious. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/324248FE-0D67-411A-8A8A-554224454D07_zpspkiuenlp.jpg You can see where the +1 comes from on there... the average mean is 59 and yesterday it was 60. The problem is that they are both really 59.5 but they round down the average and round up the daily result. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 You can see where the +1 comes from on there... the average mean is 59 and yesterday it was 60. The problem is that they are both really 59.5 but they round down the average and round up the daily result.Yes, that's the fooking problem. Why round the average down but round the departure up? They should round solely based on the *departure* from the average. Nothing more, nothing less. Otherwise it makes no fooking sense because it's not an average anymore. How can an entire scientific organization, loaded with keen-minded individuals by the thousands, be so fooking stupid? Just shoot me already. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Come to think of it, why round anything at all? Are we afraid of decimals or something? Give me a break. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 I have a random hunch that the US will snap its major hurricane drought this year. No scientific reasoning, just a gut feeling. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Yes, that's the fooking problem. Why round the average down but round the departure up? They should round solely based on the *departure* from the average. Nothing more, nothing less. Otherwise it makes no fooking sense because it's not an average anymore. How can an entire scientific organization, loaded with keen-minded individuals by the thousands, be so fooking stupid? Just shoot me already. I believe the monthly data is more precise. Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 So you were going to be outside enjoying 107 but 113 means you stay in the A/C? Doing something in the water could be an option, but probably not today. The gross thing about lakes in this part of Oklahoma is the awful water clarity. I don't like swimming or recreating in a lake where you can't see your feet in knee deep water. The lakes in far eastern and SE Oklahoma are clear, as are the lakes in the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 I believe the monthly data is more precise. Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal. You are correct. Though the rounding error has long been topic of conversation on here... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 I believe the monthly data is more precise. Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal.That doesn't address the mathematical inconsistency. If you only round departures upwards, then you'll have to round the long term averages down (since all 0.5's are rounded upwards in the raw temperature sensor data) to account for the artificial upward shift in the averages that results from the rounding procedure (which is exactly what they're doing here). The problem is that produces a bunch of bogus positive departures on the spreadsheets, and could be nullified by simply rounding in the direction of the departure as opposed to just rounding upwards, which produces an imbalance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 You are correct. Though the rounding error has long been topic of conversation on here...It would make more sense to round in the direction of the departure from average. Otherwise you shift the entire average upwards by a faction of a degree, which seems minor but is enough to skew departures too negative in the long run, in the absence of climate change. Even subzero temperatures are rounded upwards. So, a temperature of -15.5*F, for example, is rounded to -15*F instead of -16*F. If we were to round in the direction of the departure, it would eliminate the mathematical imbalance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 So you were going to be outside enjoying 107 but 113 means you stay in the A/C?You don't feel the 110-115*F threshold? H/I's between 105-110*F are usually survivable for me. Between 110-115*F is borderline depending on the time of year, but once beyond 115*F it becomes difficult to remain sentient for long (only half-kidding). At least that's my take. Back in July of 2011, we were seeing heat indices hover between 120*F and 130*F. Tourists started dropping like flies once the H/I reached 115*F. No issues until then. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Come to think of it, why round anything at all? Are we afraid of decimals or something? Give me a break.We don't round like that in Canada. Although our daily temps are generally recorded to the 10th of a degree Celsius as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Not trying to have any memes. Your just looking for something that doesn't exist and don't want to admit it was a warm weather system or maybe your too far north to feel it. Down here it didn't go below 60F at night and the reason it felt (sticky) was because we have had many nights at or below 50F this spring. People around here also mentioned it was warm. But that was just that one night. Now it's back to normal and I am not one to complain about that!. I hope the majority of this summer doesn't stray too far from normal. Even if we have a few hot days thrown in the mix. If we do have hot weather this summer do you think it will be a lot of humidity (for Oregon) or the dry heat that usually happens? Also do you think hot weather will be more of a (late) event as in August/September? From reading Phil's posts that seems to be the case. Hopefully we have good fall colours. I was talking about the meme that Phil posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 I was talking about the meme that Phil posted.Stop dissing my memes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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