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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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59 here and mostly cloudy.

 

Strange.   You must be too far south.

 

68 at SEA now.

 

Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon?   Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Strange. You must be too far south.

 

68 at SEA now.

 

Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon? Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since. :)

That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out.

 

And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS.

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That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out.

 

And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS.

 

 

Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain.   

 

There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week.    We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period.   Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good example again today... 12Z ECMWF this morning showed a high of 64 at SEA.   Just 12 hours later its 68.   GFS MOS had 68 at SEA today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain.

 

There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week. We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period. Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure.

The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm.

 

Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch.

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Wow. Looking into the SV archives, the GFS MOS has actually busted warm on all but two days this month. I didn't realize it sucked that bad. :lol:

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The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm.

Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch.

Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound.

Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm?

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Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm?

 

I can't remember.   I don't think there are errors more consistently in one direction in the cold season.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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All the small seasonal streams around here that only run when its really wet in the winter are roaring today. That was some intense rain for 24 hours here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got up to 98 here in NE Oklahoma today. Heat Index forecast to hit 107 tomorrow...Good lord... This week has been quite a shock to the system. Beautiful sunset tonight...

 

19349432_621933055374_1509142759_o.jpg?o

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What do you think Phil, some on here put you on that scale, do you feel like you're on Marks perch?

No.

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Sure bounced back quickly, made it up to 71F here today and it was warm/sunny most of the day.

 

 

12Z ECMWF said the high would be 64 there today.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just got back to Bend from southern CA. 56 and mostly cloudy here right now, was between 98-102 for about 5-6 hours today in the Central Valley. I was already through Sacramento at 2pm so I missed the heat in the southern part of the valley.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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How hard is it to find the average of two numbers? Hilarious.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/324248FE-0D67-411A-8A8A-554224454D07_zpspkiuenlp.jpg

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You have really awful memes.

Not trying to have any memes. Your just looking for something that doesn't exist and don't want to admit it was a warm weather system or maybe your too far north to feel it.  Down here it didn't go below 60F at night and the reason it felt (sticky) was because we have had many nights at or below 50F this spring.

 People around here also mentioned it was warm.  But that was just that one night. Now it's back to normal and I am not one to complain about that!.   :)    

 

 

I hope the majority of this summer doesn't stray too far from normal.  Even if we have a few hot days thrown in the mix.   If we do have hot weather this summer do you think it will be a lot of humidity (for Oregon) or the dry heat that usually happens?  

 

Also do you think hot weather will be more of a (late) event as in August/September? From reading Phil's posts that seems to be the case.   Hopefully we have good fall colours.

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Heat index of 113 forecast for today now.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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How hard is it to find the average of two numbers? Hilarious.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/324248FE-0D67-411A-8A8A-554224454D07_zpspkiuenlp.jpg

 

You can see where the +1 comes from on there... the average mean is 59 and yesterday it was 60.   The problem is that they are both really 59.5 but they round down the average and round up the daily result.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You can see where the +1 comes from on there... the average mean is 59 and yesterday it was 60. The problem is that they are both really 59.5 but they round down the average and round up the daily result.

Yes, that's the fooking problem. Why round the average down but round the departure up? They should round solely based on the *departure* from the average. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Otherwise it makes no fooking sense because it's not an average anymore. How can an entire scientific organization, loaded with keen-minded individuals by the thousands, be so fooking stupid? Just shoot me already.

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Come to think of it, why round anything at all? Are we afraid of decimals or something? Give me a break.

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I have a random hunch that the US will snap its major hurricane drought this year. No scientific reasoning, just a gut feeling.

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Yes, that's the fooking problem. Why round the average down but round the departure up? They should round solely based on the *departure* from the average. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Otherwise it makes no fooking sense because it's not an average anymore. How can an entire scientific organization, loaded with keen-minded individuals by the thousands, be so fooking stupid? Just shoot me already.

 

I believe the monthly data is more precise.    Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So you were going to be outside enjoying 107 but 113 means you stay in the A/C?

 

Doing something in the water could be an option, but probably not today. The gross thing about lakes in this part of Oklahoma is the awful water clarity. I don't like swimming or recreating in a lake where you can't see your feet in knee deep water. The lakes in far eastern and SE Oklahoma are clear, as are the lakes in the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I believe the monthly data is more precise.    Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal.

 

You are correct. Though the rounding error has long been topic of conversation on here...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I believe the monthly data is more precise. Meaning... you could have a month where every day was like yesterday and showing +1 with the same math error and yet the monthly average would come out perfectly normal.

That doesn't address the mathematical inconsistency. If you only round departures upwards, then you'll have to round the long term averages down (since all 0.5's are rounded upwards in the raw temperature sensor data) to account for the artificial upward shift in the averages that results from the rounding procedure (which is exactly what they're doing here). The problem is that produces a bunch of bogus positive departures on the spreadsheets, and could be nullified by simply rounding in the direction of the departure as opposed to just rounding upwards, which produces an imbalance.

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You are correct. Though the rounding error has long been topic of conversation on here...

It would make more sense to round in the direction of the departure from average. Otherwise you shift the entire average upwards by a faction of a degree, which seems minor but is enough to skew departures too negative in the long run, in the absence of climate change.

 

Even subzero temperatures are rounded upwards. So, a temperature of -15.5*F, for example, is rounded to -15*F instead of -16*F. If we were to round in the direction of the departure, it would eliminate the mathematical imbalance.

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So you were going to be outside enjoying 107 but 113 means you stay in the A/C?

You don't feel the 110-115*F threshold? H/I's between 105-110*F are usually survivable for me. Between 110-115*F is borderline depending on the time of year, but once beyond 115*F it becomes difficult to remain sentient for long (only half-kidding). At least that's my take.

 

Back in July of 2011, we were seeing heat indices hover between 120*F and 130*F. Tourists started dropping like flies once the H/I reached 115*F. No issues until then.

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Not trying to have any memes. Your just looking for something that doesn't exist and don't want to admit it was a warm weather system or maybe your too far north to feel it.  Down here it didn't go below 60F at night and the reason it felt (sticky) was because we have had many nights at or below 50F this spring.

 People around here also mentioned it was warm.  But that was just that one night. Now it's back to normal and I am not one to complain about that!.   :)    

 

 

I hope the majority of this summer doesn't stray too far from normal.  Even if we have a few hot days thrown in the mix.   If we do have hot weather this summer do you think it will be a lot of humidity (for Oregon) or the dry heat that usually happens?  

 

Also do you think hot weather will be more of a (late) event as in August/September? From reading Phil's posts that seems to be the case.   Hopefully we have good fall colours.

 

I was talking about the meme that Phil posted.

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