June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Day 16. It'll change.

Well, I kinda meant in general. The Bermuda High becomes an immovable object around the summer solstice every year. I bet next weekend's cold front is the last one we'll see until September.

 

In which case, I'm probably going to be a d**k to everyone and get banned from this subforum before my trip out there in July.

[Phil]

The 12z EPS has a bunch of cooler than normal days this week for SEA/OLM and even several @ PDX. Looks like the ridge is centered far enough offshore to keep onshore flow going in the lower boundary layer on some of the days.

 

There's a saturated marine inversion present on most of the EPS members on a number of the days.

[Phil]

The majority of the modeling has that 2-4 day warm stretch towards the end of the week, but the parent anticyclone is retrograding NW by that time, such that the warmth actually arises from a small notch in the ridge forced inland through the interaction with that funny-looking shortwave.

 

IMO, there's a good chance the warm stretch ends up being shortened to maybe one or two days before the anticyclone retrogrades into the AK/Aleutian domain.

[Jesse]

Well, I kinda meant in general. The Bermuda High becomes an immovable object around the summer solstice every year. I bet next weekend's cold front is the last one we'll see until September.

 

In which case, I'm probably going to be a d**k to everyone and get banned from this subforum before my trip out there in July.

What do you mean? Heat and humidity all summer is a blessing. We should be envious of you.

[Phil]

What do you mean? Heat and humidity all summer is a blessing. We should be envious of you.

Yeah, nothing says summer quite like smoggy haze, sky-high electricity bills, loud cicadas, and perpetual swamp a**.

[Phil]

FWIW, the ECMWF had 68*F @ SEA today for the high, which will again be closer to reality than the GFS, which had 66*F.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EF6D4324-906A-4E6A-A26F-B14BF68AA167_zpse8clng92.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8AEC8708-C41D-4059-93DA-885D72E6526C_zpstax1vwzl.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Plenty of light rain this morning.

 

Currently 55F with heavy drizzle, feels like we're in a cloud. Hasn't been a particularly rainy weekend but it's sure been cool/damp.

[Jesse]

Currently 55F with heavy drizzle, feels like we're in a cloud. Hasn't been a particularly rainy weekend but it's sure been cool/damp.

That's quite the north-south gradient. It was 78 and sunny here this afternoon.

[Trainwreck]

Yeah, nothing says summer quite like smoggy haze, sky-high electricity bills, loud cicadas, and perpetual swamp a**.

If it's so so bad, move.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That's quite the north-south gradient. It was 78 and sunny here this afternoon.

 

It seems to have reversed now, wasn't long ago I remember you reporting rain/drizzle down there when it was sunny/warm up here.

[Jesse]

It seems to have reversed now, wasn't long ago I remember you reporting rain/drizzle down there when it was sunny/warm up here.

Indeed. Although I don't know if the temperature gradient was as sharp.

[stuffradio]

What do you mean? Heat and humidity all summer is a blessing. We should be envious of you.

Constant rain all summer is awesome!

[Jesse]

If it's so so bad, move.

We're not allowed to suggest that people do that here.

[Jesse]

Constant rain all summer is awesome!

No it isn't. It also doesn't have to be one or the other. Luckily our average or even coolish summers fall nicely in the middle.

[stuffradio]

We're not allowed to suggest that people do that here.

At least you're learning finally! I more told you that because you told me to do that, then I told you to do that, and you freaked out at me in PM after I told you to do it.

[Jesse]

At least you're learning finally! I more told you that because you told me to do that, then I told you to do that, and you freaked out at me in PM after I told you to do it.

I don't recall that.

[Phil]

If it's so so bad, move.

I can't move until I complete my M.S. That's at the earliest.

[Jesse]

I can't move until I complete my M.S. That's at the earliest.

I don't think there's a cure for that.

[Phil]

Damnit Jesse.

[stuffradio]

I don't think there's a cure for that.

There's MasterCard.

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron tends to spin the wordage in my forecasts when feelings of inferiority creep into his psyche. I never said any of the things he's claiming I said. The dude is just an insecure blowhard.

I'm not the one throwing a fit because someone pointed out the pattern in the U.S. hasn't matched the most discussed analog.

 

Chill, Phil.

[Phil]

I'm not the one throwing a fit because someone pointed out the pattern in the U.S. hasn't matched the most discussed analog.

 

Chill, Phil.

I'm flipping out because you're claiming I said things I never actually said. That's my biggest online pet peeve. It's just so blatantly petty and superficial.

[Front Ranger]

I'm flipping out because you're claiming I said things I never actually said. That's my biggest online pet peeve. It's just so blatantly petty and superficial.

Not gonna go back and forth with you about that. But you got defensive as soon as I pointed out the map. It was not unfair, as you have done the same thing to illustrate similarities to analogs yourself. And 1993 was one of the main (if not the primary) analogs discussed over the past couple months.

 

I didn't make any statements about what it meant for your seasonal outlook or whatever.

[Front Ranger]

BLI had just their third below normal day of the month today.

[Phil]

Not gonna go back and forth with you about that. But you got defensive as soon as I pointed out the map. It was not unfair, as you have done the same thing to illustrate similarities to analogs yourself. And 1993 was one of the main (if not the primary) analogs discussed over the past couple months.

 

I didn't make any statements about what it meant for your seasonal outlook or whatever.

I got defensive because you were implying that I argued in favor of 1993 as a top US temperature analog, which is complete and utter bullcrap. I did (and do) believe it is one of the best global/tropical forcing analogs, hence the very strong similarities across the NH overall, including the strong early season NPAC jet. That's as far as I went in isolating 1993.

 

I don't like being misquoted. In the future, please be more careful when attributing quotes/statements to me. That's all I'm asking.

[Front Ranger]

I got defensive because you were implying that I argued in favor of 1993 as a top US temperature analog, which is complete and utter bullcrap. I did (and do) believe it is one of the best global/tropical forcing analogs, hence the very strong similarities across the NH overall, including the strong early season NPAC jet. That's as far as I went in isolating 1993.

 

I don't like being misquoted. In the future, please be more careful when attributing quotes/statements to me. That's all I'm asking.

 

So I "misquoted" you by implying something through posting a map?

 

Sorry, but you read too much into it and overreacted.

[TT-SEA]

Ended up on the boat this evening with the kids... absolutely gorgeous. Sky cleared off perfectly and temp jumped to 75 at Lake Sammamish... also felt nice thanks to a higher dewpoint. Glad we were able to salvage part of the day. The lake was glass.

[Phil]

So I "misquoted" you by implying something through posting a map? Sorry, but you read too much into it and overreacted.

You implied it in the sentences you wrote next to the map.

 

Just don't do it again. Very simple.

[Front Ranger]

You implied it in the sentences you wrote next to the map.

 

Just don't do it again. Very simple.

 

It is what it is, dude. Very simple. The pattern we've seen across the U.S. in June has been very different than 1993, doesn't mean it makes it useless as an analog, just means that so far it hasn't worked out well for this part of the world.

 

There were definitely quite a few similarities this spring to 1993, in terms of the pattern in the U.S., and those were discussed quite a bit. 

[TT-SEA]

Warm night... SEA was back up to the high for the day at 70 degrees at 8 p.m.

 

Temp has not updated the last 2 hours though.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GFS actually shows a warm 4th of July.

[Phil]

It is what it is, dude. Very simple. The pattern we've seen across the U.S. in June has been very different than 1993, doesn't mean it makes it useless as an analog, just means that so far it hasn't worked out well for this part of the world.

Okay, and I never claimed the pattern across the US would emulate that of 1993. I only referenced the June jet extension and blocking in May as analogous in regards to the larger scale system state progression.

 

When I conveyed this to you, instead of acknowledging it and moving on, you challenged me and claimed I was using 1993 as a top analog for US temperatures, which is absurd. That's why I'm ticked off. Stop building strawmen.

 

There were definitely quite a few similarities this spring to 1993, in terms of the pattern in the U.S., and those were discussed quite a bit.

Sure, but that's besides the point in regards to this month.

[Phil]

Warm night... SEA was back up to the high for the day at 70 degrees at 8 p.m.

 

Temp has not updated the last 2 hours though.

Really? It's updated for me.

 

They're 63*F as of 1030pm, which is the most recent update.

[TT-SEA]

Really? It's updated for me.

 

They're 63*F as of 1030pm, which is the most recent update.

 

 

This is stuck at 8 p.m. for me...

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSEA.html

[Phil]

This is stuck at 8 p.m. for me...

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSEA.html

Try this: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KSEA

 

Much better site IMO.

[TT-SEA]

Try this: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KSEA

 

Much better site IMO.

 

Added another degree to the high... making the ECMWF 3 degrees too cool once again.  

[Phil]

Added another degree to the high... making the ECMWF 3 degrees too cool once again.

Still closer than the GFS, which missed by 5 degrees.

 

Theme seems to be that the ECMWF is (usually) closer to reality than the GFS, regardless of whether the miss is +/-.

[TT-SEA]

Still closer than the GFS, which missed by 5 degrees.

 

Theme seems to be that the ECMWF is (usually) closer to reality than the GFS, regardless of whether the miss is +/-.

 

Not sure.   Like I said... the GFS MOS misses in both directions all the time.   The ECMWF is just 3-5 degrees too cool on the majority of the days.   Its strange.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF sure looking good for next weekend.

[Phil]

Not sure. Like I said... the GFS MOS misses in both directions all the time. The ECMWF is just 3-5 degrees too cool on the majority of the days. Its strange.

Not sure about what?