June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Seem to be some little cells firing up around the metro this morning, mostly to the south. There is a larger one over the north coast range putting out a decent amount of lighting as well.

[TT-SEA]

So it was a nice month as long as you ignore half of the data, clearly knowing nothing about the actual patterns at play? That isn't a month that you use for climatological analysis and analog selection in any sort of valid way (which you have attempted before using "local history"). It is an imaginary thing you have created in your head based on an incomplete and subjective viewing of the data.

 

I said it was subjective... many times.   I looked at high temps and precip... the most important criteria for determining my grade for a summer season.  July 1901 was certainly nice in that regard.   Obviously the nights were really chilly regardless of where the readings were taken and I had not noticed that before.   Its interesting indeed.

 

It was an odd July for sure.

 

The next year in 1902... July was also great and the nights were not so cold...

 

[TT-SEA]

Check out July 1906... crazy warm.  

 

[Tyler Mode]

Thunderstorms moving up the west side of the PDX metro area.

[BLI snowman]

Thunderstorms moving up the west side of the PDX metro area.

 

Had one rumble here.

 

EDIT: Now six or seven.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Check out July 1906... crazy warm.  

 

That is actually very impressive. I wonder what the bitching and moaning would be like if that happened today? lol  I WOULD Love it!

[TT-SEA]

That is actually very impressive. I wonder what the bitching and moaning would be like if that happened today? lol  I WOULD Love it!

 

 

There is still hope for your 4th of July celebration.   The models are slowly backing off the strength and depth of the trough that day... it might end up being a morning clouds and afternoon sun scenario with highs maybe in the low 70s which would be decent.

 

Here is the new 12Z GFS for the 4th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_35.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_cfractot_nwus_35.png

[Guest happ]

Out of curiosity I googled it a few days ago. Apparently they're called "scissor grinder" cicadas. I can't imagine why...goodness gracious almighty.

 

http://www.cicadamania.com/genera/species.php?q=N.+pruinosus+pruinosus

 

Also hear these all the time during the morning and midday hours (including right now) and they're just as obnoxious.

 

http://www.cicadamania.com/genera/species.php?q=N.+tibicen+tibicen

[ShawniganLake]

There is still hope for your 4th of July celebration. The models are slowly backing off the strength and depth of the trough that day... it might end up being a morning clouds and afternoon sun scenario with highs maybe in the low 70s which would be decent.

 

Here is the new 12Z GFS for the 4th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_35.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_cfractot_nwus_35.png

Canadian looks similar but is even faster with the departing trough.

[Front Ranger]

That is actually very impressive. I wonder what the bitching and moaning would be like if that happened today? lol  I WOULD Love it!

 

It's pretty close to July 2015.

[Jesse]

It's pretty close to July 2015.

Cooler if anything.

[ShawniganLake]

Low of just 63F here this morning. A very warm night for this location

[TT-SEA]

As far June is concerned... hard to beat 1918.

 

[TT-SEA]

And the awesome summer of 1918 kept rolling right through September... too bad the influenza epidemic made the weather irrelevant.  

 

[Tyler Mode]

Please watch in HD

A short video from today's storm.  Mostly thunder, a couple of bolts of lightning if you look closely, with the best bolt around 1:18.

My 10th day with thunder this year.

https://youtu.be/mPf9DJbw77k

[ShawniganLake]

No sign of much if any below average temps on the latest GFS ensembles.

[Jesse]

No sign of much if any below average temps on the latest GFS ensembles.

Yeah, you could definitely get your way this summer. Five in a row is hard to do.

 

I would say maybe we get a cool August to balance things out, but recent climo says that's almost impossible. It's been almost two decades since our last one (at least notably so).

[wx_statman]

Showers firing up again. Just had some big raindrops here.

[Front Ranger]

Cooler if anything.

 

For PDX, yeah. Not for Tim's area, though. I'm pretty sure 2015 was a little cooler, at least as far as highs.

[TT-SEA]

For PDX, yeah. Not for Tim's area, though. I'm pretty sure 2015 was a little cooler, at least as far as highs.

 

 

Definitely warmer in July 1906 than 2015 for this area.

[Timmy]

I was helping my grandpa haul hay this morning, west of scappoose at 1500'. And while we were loading (standing in the back of a dump truck). Lightening struck the radio tower less than 100 yards from us. Definitely the most intense natural phenomenon I have witnessed first hand. The sound, the feel and the visual was incredible. Not something I care to witness that close and exposed again though.

[Jesse]

I was helping my grandpa haul hay this morning, west of scappoose at 1500'. And while we were loading (standing in the back of a dump truck). Lightening struck the radio tower less than 100 yards from us. Definitely the most intense natural phenomenon I have witnessed first hand. The sound, the feel and the visual was inscredible. Not something I care to witness that close and exposed again though.

Given your experiences you're going to have full blown wx-phobia by the time the year is over.

[Jesse]

Euro definitely looks cooler than the GFS overall.

[Phil]

I bet Jesse is doing a satan-istic ritual in support of the ECMWF.

 

Both the 12z ECMWF and 12z EPS (out early on SV) are consistently cool and troughy in the extended range.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Lol, well if there was a year for me to be wrong, this would be it.

 

Not an easy one. Would require lots of luck for me to be perfect from here on out.

 

The cooling WPAC/IPWP waters are another new development and argue against a warm August but (verbatim) wouldn't prevent a warm September. We'll see.

Yeah, things seem to be in flux this summer. Including ENSO.

[Phil]

Yeah, things seem to be in flux this summer. Including ENSO.

Definitely.

 

I am leaning towards the ECMWF/EPS solution, though. Not that Mother Nature cares about what I think at this point.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is still hope for your 4th of July celebration. The models are slowly backing off the strength and depth of the trough that day... it might end up being a morning clouds and afternoon sun scenario with highs maybe in the low 70s which would be decent.

 

Here is the new 12Z GFS for the 4th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_35.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062612/gfs_cfractot_nwus_35.png

. Now lets get the euro on board. Jesse can you work on that for me?

[TT-SEA]

. Now lets get the euro on board. Jesse can you work on that for me?

12Z ECMWF surface map is almost identical to the GFS on the 4th.

 

No rain... partly sunny in the afternoon and low 70s in your area.

[Timmy Supercell]

I was on the way back home from shopping and there was a dust devil a bit to the east from us. Maybe 3 miles away. I did not have my camera with me.. So no pictures

[wx_statman]

100 looking unlikely today. 

[Timmy]

Given your experiences you're going to have full blown wx-phobia by the time the year is over.

seriously.

[TT-SEA]

Improved 4th of July on the 18Z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062618/gfs_T2ma_nwus_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062618/gfs_cfractot_nwus_34.png

[Phil]

Thanks to the expansive cold air outbreak across the US, Arctic, and Europe/Eurasia, the global (lower tropospheric) temperature anomaly has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years for boreal summer.

 

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl

 

While the quiet EHEM/+NAO summer circulation might be vehemently pro-Tim/anti-Jesse in the shorter term, it's definitely the most effective NH refrigerator in the long run. Reduced poleward heat transport + increased WHEM tropical/subtropical cloud cover = energy deficits.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks to the expansive cold air outbreak across the US, Arctic, and Europe/Eurasia, the global (lower tropospheric) temperature anomaly has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years for boreal summer.

 

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl

 

While the quiet EHEM/+NAO summer circulation might be vehemently pro-Tim/anti-Jesse in the shorter term, it's definitely the most effective NH refrigerator in the long run. Reduced poleward heat transport + increased WHEM tropical/subtropical cloud cover = energy deficits.

 

 

Warm summer and cold winter?   That is most certainly "pro-Tim".  

[Phil]

A quick illustration of recent intraseasonal variability within the background state.

 

The enhanced convection returning to the EHEM (blue) favors a more classic -PNA, as opposed to the jet extensions that are favored with reduced EHEM convection (red). The background state (black) has been La Niña-ish.

 

So it looks like we're moving away from the jet extensions for awhile, and into a more anticyclonic/-PNA regime over the NPAC:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C3C14DD5-D9DD-4861-BBCC-1CE8CB1EA482_zps5rrbe7b9.jpg

[Phil]

That said, a -PNA won't always lead to western troughing, as was evidenced by the warm stretch in May.

 

Whether or not it tejeconnects to a depressed EPAC anticyclone and western troughing depends on the EPAC/ATL convection and NAO state.

 

The second half of May had enhanced convection over the EPAC domain. July looks quite different in that regard, so I'd lean towards a more classic La Niña pattern with western troughing until the next EHEM shutdown.

[Phil]

If July winds up cooler than average, it will get there through what is essentially the exact opposite forcing conduit, which in this case would be enhanced EHEM/Indo convection relative to the EPAC and NATL, which would lead to a weaker NPAC jet, and a subsequently stronger NPAC anticyclone/-PNA type circulation.

[Front Ranger]

I'd be interested in hearing the response from Mark and his blog in regards to wxstatman's "scrubbed data" post.