June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I'd be interested in hearing the response from Mark and his blog in regards to wxstatman's "scrubbed data" post.

Doesn't look like he responded yet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Was today supposed to be a marine layer day? Sure didn't last long, it was cool a few hours in the morning but rapidly warmed up to 81F early this afternoon and the warmth has stuck around. Still 73F at nearly 8pm, definitely not a typical post-marine push day for this location.

[Jesse]

100 looking unlikely today. 

 

I would have to double check but I think Dewey has this one copywritten.

[Phil]

A lot more EHEM forcing on the EPS lately, only this time it's manifesting mostly in wave-1 fashion. That's closer to something you'd expect in a moderate or strong La Niña, whether or not it's a true MJO.

 

Of course, with the -QBO downwelling so quickly, it's almost guaranteed to propagate east towards the IPWP/WPAC at some point, I would presume.

[Phil]

Bottom line: A much weaker NPAC jet, and corresponding height rises (-PNA) is in the pipeline through at least the first half of July, or perhaps longer depending on how long it takes the convection to reach the IPWP area. When it eventually does, it will force another wavetrain amplification and ignite another round of Atlantic tropical activity starting in late July or early August which could further reinforce ridging over much of Canada.

[luminen]

Today was warm but very refreshing compared to the two last days which were hot with highs of 87F and 90F, with not much of a breeze to cool things off. Today was very nice though.

[Dave]

Doesn't look like he responded yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the two of you butted heads a couple of times in the past?  That could be a factor in the non-response.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is flatter with the ridge by Saturday... trough might be making a rebound in the models.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like Portland had thunderstorms this morning above the marine layer.

[Phil]

00Z GFS is flatter with the ridge by Saturday... trough might be making a rebound in the models.

The ECMWF/EPS have always had the troughing. The GFS is just playing catch-up like usual.

[Jesse]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the two of you butted heads a couple of times in the past? That could be a factor in the non-response.

We're just fine. He generally responds when I post stuff over there.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z GFS is flatter with the ridge by Saturday... trough might be making a rebound in the models.

 

So much for my Canada Day long weekend plans  .

[wx_statman]

I would have to double check but I think Dewey has this one copywritten.

 

I thought it sounded familiar when I wrote it.

[TT-SEA]

So much for my Canada Day long weekend plans  .

 

Weekend still looks nice on the 00Z GFS.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at +2.1 for June... and the rest of the week looks a little above normal.  

[Phil]

[Jesse]

00z GFS says: Chilly 4th of July in Tim's backyard.

 

Try not to let your desire to troll Tim lure you into busting another monthly forecast.

[Phil]

Try not to let your desire to troll Tim lure you into busting another monthly forecast.

I'll do my best.

 

A cool July might be tough to pull off, simply because I'll be visiting the area from 7/23 to 8/1, and heat ridges follow me everywhere I go. Never fails. Expect a heatwave around then.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Weekend still looks nice on the 00Z GFS.  

 

It seems like Victoria may stay south of it, doesn't look as promising further up the Island.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS says: Chilly 4th of July in Tim's backyard.

 

Looks fairly sunny... 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062700/gfs_cfractot_nwus_33.png

 

And basically normal temperatures... and the 12Z ECMWF showed the same thing.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062700/gfs_T2ma_nwus_33.png

 

 

Could be much worse.   We are likely heading over to Crescent Bar anyways... should be 85-90 over there.   

[TT-SEA]

It seems like Victoria may stay south of it, doesn't look as promising further up the Island.

 

Yeah... further north does not look as promising.

[TT-SEA]

Try not to let your desire to troll Tim lure you into busting another monthly forecast.

 

Exactly.   That might be his biggest weakness.  

 

I heard about 1993 all spring... this summer is nothing like 1993 here.   

[Phil]

Exactly. That might be his biggest weakness.

 

I heard about 1993 all spring... this summer is nothing like 1993 here.

It's not my fault you don't pay attention.

 

I never said anything about 2017 emulating 1993. I said both summers would open with jet extensions and feature similar large scale patterns, with 2017's jet running weaker than 1993's. Both predictions were accurate.

[TT-SEA]

It's not my fault you don't pay attention.

 

I never said anything about 2017 emulating 1993. I said both summers would open with jet extensions and feature similar large scale patterns, with 2017's jet running weaker than 1993's. Both predictions were accurate.

 

I know... there was definitely merit to the analog on large scale.   But it was sort of a meaningless analog locally.  

 

It is sort of strange that the worst two summers in the last 40 years (1983 and 1993) have been the most discussed analogs for two years in a row.   

[Phil]

This idea that I'm secretly trolling Tim is hilarious, but it's mostly incorrect. Sometimes I'm just wrong. Happens to everyone.

 

Tim predicted a blowtorch July last year. I predicted a cool August right on his heels. Flatiron predicted a -AO winter. All of these predictions busted, and none of them were secret troll-jobs, as far as I can tell.

[Front Ranger]

It's not my fault you don't pay attention.

 

I never said anything about 2017 emulating 1993. I said both summers would open with jet extensions and feature similar large scale patterns, with 2017's jet running weaker than 1993's. Both predictions were accurate.

 

You made it clear that a cool/troughy start to summer like 1993/1983/etc was to be expected.

 

There was no notable jet extension this month into the PNW. It's actually going to end up as a drier than normal June for much of the region.

[Phil]

I know... there was definitely merit to the analog on large scale. But it was sort of a meaningless analog locally.

 

But its sort of strange that the worst two summers in the last 40 years (1983 and 1993) have been the most discussed analogs for two years in a row.

I actually had no idea what those summers were like at the surface PNW stations when I picked them as analogs.

 

I picked them because they were/are the years with the highest multi-layer correlation coefficients. They remain fairly good low frequency analogs, though there are some notable timing differences showing up between said analogs and 2017.

[TT-SEA]

You made it clear that a cool/troughy start to summer like 1993/1983/etc was to be expected.

 

There was no notable jet extension this month into the PNW. It's actually going to end up as a drier than normal June for much of the region.

 

It did happen in the middle of the month... there was a "hose" of moisture pointed at us for a couple days in November-like fashion.

 

But overall... June featured more days above normal than below and WAY less days rainy days than June 1993.  

[TT-SEA]

This idea that I'm secretly trolling Tim is hilarious, but it's mostly incorrect. Sometimes I'm just wrong. Happens to everyone.

 

Tim predicted a blowtorch July last year. I predicted a cool August right on his heels. Flatiron predicted a -AO winter. All of these predictions busted, and none of them were secret troll-jobs, as far as I can tell.

 

You do troll me.   And I troll you.   And so it goes.

[Phil]

You made it clear that a cool/troughy start to summer like 1993/1983/etc was to be expected.

 

There was no notable jet extension this month into the PNW. It's actually going to end up as a drier than normal June for much of the region.

Huh? Slow down there, sparky.

 

1) The UV200 NPAC jet was the 4th strongest on record for the month of June. You're confusing the longitude of the extension via diabatic forcing, and the strength of the jet during the extension.

 

2) It has/will be a troughy start to summer in the PNW. The first half of July will be troughy, as did more than half of June.

[TT-SEA]

It seems like Victoria may stay south of it, doesn't look as promising further up the Island.

 

00Z ECMWF coming in now shows a gorgeous Canada Day on Saturday... mid-70s and mostly sunny all the way up the Island.

[Front Ranger]

This idea that I'm secretly trolling Tim is hilarious, but it's mostly incorrect. Sometimes I'm just wrong. Happens to everyone.

 

Tim predicted a blowtorch July last year. I predicted a cool August right on his heels. Flatiron predicted a -AO winter. All of these predictions busted, and none of them were secret troll-jobs, as far as I can tell.

 

You didn't exactly disagree. 

 

And my winter outlook worked out decently, especially in December and January, though the East ended up being warmer than I expected - thanks in large part to the +AO that developed.

[Front Ranger]

It did happen in the middle of the month... there was a "hose" of moisture pointed at us for a couple days in November-like fashion.

 

But overall... June featured more days above normal than below and WAY less days rainy days than June 1993.  

 

Yeah, I guess I don't consider a couple of wet days in June to be that notable. Too brief to be notable.

[Phil]

It did happen in the middle of the month... there was a "hose" of moisture pointed at us for a couple days in November-like fashion.

 

But overall... June featured more days above normal than below and WAY less days rainy days than June 1993.

The jet wasn't as strong or "extended" as it was in 1993, which is actually what I predicted back in May. I didn't bust on that.

 

Plus, 1993 (by far) is running the highest correlation to 2017 across the NH (@ 500mb). It remains a great large scale analog.

[TT-SEA]

Huh? Slow down there, sparky.

 

1) The UV200 NPAC jet was the 4th strongest on record for the month of June. You're confusing the longitude of the extension via diabatic forcing, and the strength of the jet during the extension.

 

2) It has/will be a troughy start to summer in the PNW. The first half of July will be troughy, as did more than half of June.

 

Not sure what troughy means then... because it did not translate to the surface where we live.  

 

This month is going to end up a little warmer and drier than normal for the region.   And even warmer in the Seattle area... +2.1 for June does not feel like a troughy start to summer.   Or maybe June is always troughy.   Either way... its been a pretty nice month.  

[TT-SEA]

The jet wasn't as strong or "extended" as it was in 1993, which is actually what I predicted back in May. I didn't bust on that.

 

Plus, 1993 (by far) is running the highest correlation to 2017 across the NH (@ 500mb). It remains a great large scale analog.

 

Yes... 1993 had merits on a large scale.    But it was almost the opposite result locally which is what most of us actually care about.  

[Front Ranger]

Huh? Slow down there, sparky.

 

1) The UV200 NPAC jet was the 4th strongest on record for the month of June. You're confusing the longitude of the extension via diabatic forcing, and the strength of the jet during the extension.

 

2) It has/will be a troughy start to summer in the PNW. The first half of July will be troughy, as did more than half of June.

 

Above normal heights in the PNW does not = a troughy June. The trough has been well offshore for the month overall...and this is only through the 24th. July remains to be seen.

 

It's actually been "troughier" in your neck of the woods.

 

[Phil]

Not sure what troughy means then... because it did not translate to the surface where we live.

 

This month is going to end up a little warmer and drier than normal for the region. And even warmer in the Seattle area... +2.1 for June does not feel like a troughy start to summer. Or maybe June is always troughy.

It depends on the timescale (frequency period), which is what Flatiron keeps failing to understand. From the perspective of the last 6 weeks, it's been a fairly ridgy system state. Extend the timeframe to 15 weeks, and it's been a fairly troughy system state.

 

The forecasts I'm making run on a seasonal resolution. So, when the entire timeframe is analyzed (June 1st to July 15th) the mean will run troughy.

[Phil]

Above normal heights in the PNW does not = a troughy June. The trough has been offshore for the month...and this is only through the 24th. July remains to be seen.

Do you ever bother to read before responding? Not trying to be harsh, but you'll learn faster if you'd kindly shut up and read replies more thoroughly.

 

The low frequency (seasonal) system state has been (and remains) troughy. You're looking at a 4 week (subseasonal) mean and drawing incorrect conclusions as a result. The first "half" of summer will finish troughy in the means. It will be even more pronounced when tuned to a trimonthly resolution.

[TT-SEA]

It depends on the timescale (frequency period), which is what Flatiron keeps failing to understand. From the perspective of the last 6 weeks, it's been a fairly ridgy system state. Extend the timeframe to 15 weeks, and it's been a fairly troughy system state.

 

The forecasts I'm making run on a seasonal resolution. So, when the entire timeframe is analyzed (June 1st to July 15th) the mean will run troughy.

 

Well then we should be due for some ridging after 7/15.  

 

The troughy period will likely end up above normal... looking forward to what a ridgy period brings.