June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.

 

Meanwhile, very nice day.

Cool summer.

[Jesse]

Cool summer.

Not off to the best start for that one.

[Jesse]

Let's do it. Same locations as last year?

Sure.

[Deweydog]

Not off to the best start for that one.

Nope.

[Jesse]

Nope.

[Front Ranger]

That was our little forecast contest, which was subseasonal, at my direct request. Remember?

 

I thought I could throw you off your game by diving into the subseasonal realm, but so I've performed just as terribly as you on those specifics.

 

This is separate from the analog-based seasonal predictions I've been making since March, which you've been referring to here.

Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect.

 

Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far.

[TT-SEA]

Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect.

 

Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far.

 

The pattern change to a warmer and more ridgy regime came around May 18th.

 

Since that time... SEA has been below normal on only 11 out of 40 days.    In other words... its been at or above normal almost 75% of the time.   

[Phil]

Yikes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3C556EFB-EAC8-495E-B25E-25B3446A3F4A_zpsjjqaajiu.jpg

[Phil]

Historically speaking, in the weeks following the bottoming-out of the AAM integral, ridging is favored over the GOA/Aleutians, and troughing is favored over the Intermountain West.

 

Obviously, it remains to be seen how long this -AAM period lasts, but it does look to continue for at least another two weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Yikes..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3C556EFB-EAC8-495E-B25E-25B3446A3F4A_zpsjjqaajiu.jpg

 

 

Like 1994.   That extreme AAM plunge in late June 1994 was followed by 3 months of gorgeous weather here.     

[Phil]

Like 1994. That extreme AAM plunge in late June 1994 was followed by 3 months of gorgeous weather here.

We had a moderate/strong El Niño tropical circulation that year.

 

Statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we follow 1994.

[TT-SEA]

We had a moderate/strong El Niño tropical circulation that year.

 

Statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we follow 1994.

 

Whew!  

 

So a continuation of deep troughing and very cold weather for the rest of the summer?

[Phil]

Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect.

 

Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far.

I'm betting the 6/1-7/15 period averages troughy @ 500mb. At least relative to the global geopotential height anomaly average.

[Phil]

Whew!

 

So a continuation of deep troughing and very cold weather for the rest of the summer?

Careful with that hyperbole. You might karmically manifest it.

[Jesse]

Today is so gorgeous.

[TT-SEA]

Today is so gorgeous.

 

Yes it is.  

[Phil]

We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.

Meanwhile, very nice day.

Forecast contest is up for anyone willing to ante up.

[DareDuck]

I'm betting the 6/1-7/15 period averages troughy @ 500mb. At least relative to the global geopotential height anomaly average.

I just think you need to make that a little more clear in the future. It's evident that most people here interpreted your posts as pointing to a cooler than average start to summer at the surface. I guess that's not what you meant but even if it turns cooler in the week or so it will go down as a warmer that average start to summer.

[Front Ranger]

I just think you need to make that a little more clear in the future. It's evident that most people here interpreted your posts as pointing to a cooler than average start to summer at the surface. I guess that's not what you meant but even if it turns cooler in the week or so it will go down as a warmer that average start to summer.

I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting.

[BLI snowman]

I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting.

 

Yeah, it was pretty clear cut.

[Phil]

I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting.

At 850mb. I made clear that I wasn't making specific surface temperature predictions after last summer's cold 850mb/warm surface debacle.

[luminen]

hey phil are we going to have another cold/snowy winter? 

[Phil]

hey phil are we going to have another cold/snowy winter?

I'm leaning towards a cold start/warm finish sort of progression, but I reserve the right to change my mind.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is a little more robust with the trough on the 3rd and 4th... but its still shows lots of sun and around normal temps on the 4th.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

00Z GFS is a little more robust with the trough on the 3rd and 4th... but its still shows lots of sun and around normal temps on the 4th.  

 I have a feeling of impending doom...

[TT-SEA]

4-corners high making an appearance next week:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

[TT-SEA]

 I have a feeling of impending doom...

 

Rain looks very unlikely... clouds and temps are really the only question.   Right now the GFS and ECMWF show it being a sunny day and right around normal... so the models are on your side.   One week to go!  

[Front Ranger]

At 850mb. I made clear that I wasn't making specific surface temperature predictions after last summer's cold 850mb/warm surface debacle.

 

There has been no such disconnect this month. Warm at 850 mb, warm at the surface.

 

[Phil]

4-corners high making an appearance next week:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png

Baffin Bay vortex/+NAO statistically favors a western ridge during the middle of summer, yet the -AAM/Eurasian high favors just the opposite.

 

Going to be a battle. It's NPAC vs NAO, basically.

[Phil]

There has been no such disconnect this month. Warm at 850 mb, warm at the surface.

 

compday.lQcSp_okeP.gif

The first half of summer isn't over yet. What's your point?

[Phil]

00z GFS is scary looking. Reminds me of June/July 2012.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z ECMWF coming in now shows a gorgeous Canada Day on Saturday... mid-70s and mostly sunny all the way up the Island.

 

That'd be nice; I'm planning on sticking around to watch the celebrations in Victoria now, but it would give us a little more buffer.

[TT-SEA]

That'd be nice; I'm planning on sticking around to watch the celebrations in Victoria now, but it would give us a little more buffer.

 

Saturday looks great on the 00Z GFS as well.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_cfractot_nwus_17.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Saturday looks great on the 00Z GFS as well.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_cfractot_nwus_17.png

 

Looks like one of those quirky patterns we sometimes get where bursts of westerly winds result in down sloping, bringing warmer temperatures to the surface. Hopefully it holds down to Victoria Harbor where the celebrations will be, should be warm in this area regardless.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS shows an impressive heat ridge building into the western US later next week.

[Jesse]

GFS shows an impressive heat ridge building into the western US later next week.

Good. It's been an annoyingly cool early summer so far.

[Kayla]

Ugh, 2 more weeks of denial.  #4cornershigh 

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS has the 4th a tad coolish but overall a decent day, which is the norm here. OF course July 5th on starts to look amazing.

[Jesse]

Ensembles definitely backing the big ridge idea.

 

Wonder when Phill will finally say "Uncle".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

hot summers are the new norm...