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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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If the 00z GFS verifies, it will be the first time since ESRL reanalysis records began (1948) that a +3SD anticyclone is centered over the Aleutians at the same time another +3SD anticyclone is centered over the western United States during July.

 

Could happen, I guess. But it'd require serious wavetrain weirdness and perfect timing between the phase states.

 

ECMWF is fully on board now... 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017063000/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Watching the 500mb loop is interesting though... seems strange to me.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF is fully on board now...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017063000/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Watching the 500mb loop is interesting though... seems strange to me.

It's weird looking, but then again, the pattern has been weird all summer so why stop now? :rolleyes:

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You can kinda see how that +NAO would favor a ridge in western Canada/US, though. It's a pretty strong relationship which has persisted for over a century now.

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Phil... good example today of how being inland often has more of an effect in the summer than elevation. Its 74 at SEA right now and 81 at my house.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil... good example today of how being inland often has more of an effect in the summer than elevation. Its 74 at SEA right now and 81 at my house.

Looking forward to experiencing those microclimates when I visit in three weeks.

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Looking forward to experiencing those microclimates when I visit in three weeks.

 

At this point... it seems likely that it will look really dry around here.   Typical for late July.   But it will seem different to you and not what you expect from this area.   I know people visiting from MN always express surprise at how dry it looks here in the summer.   The sides of the freeways and most lawns will be brown.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12Z ECMWF control run is even cooler than the operational run for the second half of next week.

 

The 12Z EPS is warmer than both.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point... it seems likely that is will look really dry around here. Typical for late July. But it will seem different to you and not what you expect from this area. I know people visiting from MN always express surprise at how dry it looks here in the summer. The sides of the freeways and most lawns will be brown.

I talked to my uncle who lives in Everett. Says everything is greener than usual there at the moment. I'm guessing it won't look that way in a month, though?

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I talked to my uncle who lives in Everett. Says everything is greener than usual there at the moment. I'm guessing it won't look that way in a month, though?

Not likely.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not likely.

I like rainy weather in the summer. Boo. :(

 

The ground is cracking like a desert here. Our lawmowers have been kicking up giant clouds of dust all week. We need rain like ASAP.

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Cool Arctic summer continues.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/EC9C309F-D8F2-4459-8438-9045DDB79CDE_zpsq6rxjcq7.png

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Cool summers and very warm winters have become the new norm up there it seems.

Yeah, less seasonality for sure, especially since 2013.

 

The crazy warmth last winter was (partially) a consequence of the +AO, which actually warms the Arctic surface during boreal winter via increased cloud cover and warm-air advection, as opppsed to the -AO, which cools the Arctic surface via the enhancement of radiative cooling under calmer, clearer skies, given the absence of insolation.

 

This relationship reverses during April, though.

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this is the first summer in a few where the nao seems stuck in a positive mode the last few summers were predominantly negative but then went predominant positive fall winter

Yeah, over the last decade, we've only seem one summer with a +NAO, and that was 2013. The +NAO summers are much more common during the -AMM/-AMO circulation.

 

The recent J/J/A -NAO stretch has been very persistent, haven't seen anything like it since the 1940s/1950s.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/9E236119-1DDC-41C2-98DA-06484B49AB48_zpsrn5ladgr.jpg

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Cool summers and very warm winters have become the new norm up there it seems.

 

Summers haven't been that cool, really. For example, Longyearbyen finished 2016 at something like 13F above the 1961-90 annual average. Their summers haven't warmed as fast as their winters, but they have still warmed significantly just since the 1961-90 baseline. I think their January average is running something like +8F since 2000, and July is running +3F or +4F. But that's to be expected, given the impact of reduced sea ice during the winter months being greater. 

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Summers haven't been that cool, really. For example, Longyearbyen finished 2016 at something like 13F above the 1961-90 annual average. Their summers haven't warmed as fast as their winters, but they have still warmed significantly just since the 1961-90 baseline. I think their January average is running something like +8F since 2000, and July is running +3F or +4F. But that's to be expected, given the impact of reduced sea ice during the winter months being greater.

I don't know about individual stations, but above 75N, overall, the J/J/A period has cooled slightly since 2007, despite the crazy/prolonged -NAO stretch we've seen through the last decade, which makes it all the more impressive. The summers of 2013 and 2014 were the coolest above 75N since the 1960s. The Arctic and NATL subsurface waters have also cooled significantly since 2007, so the shift in circulation is real and coupled to the oceans.

 

It's driven by nothing more than a shift in tropical convection/Hadley Cell seasonality, but this process still plays a significant role in the management of the planetary energy budget.

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Notice the shift in the energy budget since 2013. The tropical oceans (0-1900m) have observed an accelerated warming, while the sub-Arctic oceans (0-1900m) have observed a cooling.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/images/ArgoGlobalSummaryGraph.gif

 

Overall, since 2013, the poleward transfer of heat from the tropics has been stunted significantly, due to weakening Asian monsoons and continued broad/slow Hadley Cells. Should this system state continue for another 5-10 years, things will start to get very interesting.

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Not only are the waters/subsurface above 55N cooling, but the North Atlantic subsurface above 30N has also observed a swift subsurface cooling since 2007. Perhaps we're preparing to terminate the +AMO circulation that's dominated since the 1990s.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/images/NODC%20NorthAtlanticOceanicHeatContent0-700mSince1955%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

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I don't know about individual stations, but above 75N, overall, the J/J/A period has cooled slightly since 2007, despite the crazy/prolonged -NAO stretch we've seen through the last decade, which makes it all the more impressive. The summers of 2013 and 2014 were the coolest above 75N since the 1960s. The Arctic and NATL subsurface waters have also cooled significantly since 2007, so the shift in circulation is real and coupled to the oceans.

 

It's driven by nothing more than a shift in tropical convection/Hadley Cell seasonality, but this process still plays a significant role in the management of the planetary energy budget.

 

I just checked the numbers for Alert. Indeed, July 2013 averaged 1.1C below the 1961-90 baseline, and August 2013 averaged an impressive 2.1C below the 1961-90 normal. I know for a fact that Longyearbyen went 72 months (at least) without a below normal monthly average, from November 2010 until at least November 2016 (as quoted in the press last December). So I know that station was above average every month in 2013. Perhaps the Longyearbyen numbers are more sensitive due to their location close to the interface of the Gulf Stream and the pack ice? 

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I just checked the numbers for Alert. Indeed, July 2013 averaged 1.1C below the 1961-90 baseline, and August 2013 averaged an impressive 2.1C below the 1961-90 normal. I know for a fact that Longyearbyen went 72 months (at least) without a below normal monthly average, from November 2010 until at least November 2016 (as quoted in the press last December). So I know that station was above average every month in 2013. Perhaps the Longyearbyen numbers are more sensitive due to their location close to the interface of the Gulf Stream and the pack ice?

Could be. I don't know the answer.

 

I'm not a microclimate guy, so my explanations would be nothing more than assumptions. I'm just looking at the large scale energy budgets.

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If the equator/pole thermal gradient remains tight like this into the autumn and winter, we're going to have one heck of a wavetrain to deal with. In a -QBO/low solar year, too. Yikes.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.29.2017.gif

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No sign of any systematic changes through at least the next two weeks. Huge +AO, ring of fire pattern in the mid-latitudes.

 

D5-10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A9D987B-4F55-41A2-83F7-F826D616C761_zpsxjwqyqlz.png

 

 

D10-15

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A784E444-1838-4ADF-8E77-6AC407BB40EB_zpshtw51tpr.png

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No sign of any systematic changes through at least the next two weeks. Huge +AO, ring of fire pattern in the mid-latitudes.

 

D5-10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A9D987B-4F55-41A2-83F7-F826D616C761_zpsxjwqyqlz.png

 

 

D10-15

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A784E444-1838-4ADF-8E77-6AC407BB40EB_zpshtw51tpr.png

Summer.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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