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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Strawberries are nowhere near being ripe yet, or even big. Fields are quite delayed still, even the blueberries.

 

My lime tree is responding well, looking forward to getting the first lime of the year with plenty more flowers coming out now. It was setback a bit earlier this year when it was moved outside after growing in someone's living room for years, but it's recovering quickly. My other subtropicals seem to be enjoying the weather this year as well, lots of new growth. Today is turning out warmer than I was expecting.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4490_zpskf1to4br.jpg

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Verbatim, the 18z GFS now keeps much of the region in a cool/zonal pattern until d9, at which point the potential for a warm spell is greatly reduced (obviously this solution is bogus in the d10-16 period). The amplitude of the monsoonal gyre will be very important for the d6-10 period, though.

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SEA did end up at -2 on the day... so this deep trough has resulted in -1, -3, and -2 for the last 3 days.

 

The little ridge earlier in the week managed a +10 and +8.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA did end up at -2 on the day... so this deep trough has resulted in -1, -3, and -2 for the last 3 days.

 

The little ridge earlier in the week managed a +10 and +8.

The Puget Sound hotspot lives!

 

PDX was -6 on the day, and -10 on the high.

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The Puget Sound hotspot lives!

 

PDX was -6 on the day, and -10 on the high.

SEA benefited from the ULL sinking south. It was sunny almost all day around Seattle. There were many showers around Portland. Tomorrow looks warmer in both places.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA benefited from the ULL sinking south. It was sunny almost all day around Seattle. There were many showers around Portland. Tomorrow looks warmer in both places.

It looks warmer than today, but verbatim there aren't any warmer than average highs on the 18z GFS until the clown range. More mixed messages with regards to overnight lows, though.

 

Either way, on aggregate the balance runs cool on the majority of guidance.

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The 12z EPS mean only depicts three above average days for SEA through the next 15+ days. The retrogression should occur sometime between June 20th and 25th, so the timing of the warm spike (just before the retrogression) makes sense, in my opinion.

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The long range GFS ensembles seem more warm than cool....

 

59/44 here today with 0.66" of rain.

 

Up to 2.18" on the month now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Speaking of epic cold troughs at this time of year, another good example was in 1964. PDX had a 53/45 day on the 8th (incidentally, the 56/46 on 6/10/2008 was the coldest day so late into June since 6/8/1964), and an absolutely incredible upslope rainstorm hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana. Summit, just east of the continental divide, recorded 7.31" of precipitation on the 8th, and 5.90" fell in Browning on the same day (where the annual average is around 15"). Flooding killed 34 people. 

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Speaking of epic cold troughs at this time of year, another good example was in 1964. PDX had a 53/45 day on the 8th (incidentally, the 56/46 on 6/10/2008 was the coldest day so late into June since 6/8/1964), and an absolutely incredible upslope rainstorm hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana. Summit, just east of the continental divide, recorded 7.31" of precipitation on the 8th, and 5.90" fell in Browning on the same day (where the annual average is around 15"). Flooding killed 34 people. 

 

Looks like Silver Falls had 52/38 on 6/8/1964

 

Pulled off a 45/39 on 6/10/2008

 

Also hit 93 on 6/28/08

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 12z EPS mean only depicts three above average days for SEA through the next 15+ days. The retrogression should occur sometime between June 20th and 25th, so the timing of the warm spike (just before the retrogression) makes sense, in my opinion.

 

Unless there is a frontal timing issue... the ECMWF usually runs too cool for this area.

 

It had 62 at SEA for today on the 12Z run... the actual high was 67.    Many days it runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the entire area and its more pronounced in the warm season.   

 

The new 00Z ECMWF run shows 66 for SEA tomorrow.   You can play along at home... it will be 70 or 71 at SEA tomorrow.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Unless there is a frontal timing issue... the ECMWF usually runs too cool for this area.

 

It had 62 at SEA for today on the 12Z run... the actual high was 67. Many days it runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the entire area and its more pronounced in the warm season.

I think that's only an issue when streamflow aloft is offshore, at least from what I've seen? I'm also looking at 850mb-925mb temperatures. Obviously it's a fickle scenario either way given the frustratingly persistent model struggles this spring. It wouldn't take much for the 00z ECMWF/EPS to come in warmer. Slight phase changes could swing the results completely.

 

I've found myself relying more heavily on reanalysis-based modeling and analogs than usual this spring/summer. It's been over a month since the models experienced what appears be a massive stroke, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat aggravated at this point.

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Predominantly an overcast day with a few very light showers passing through. I've had a chance of storms for the last few days but it hasn't delivered so far. Been going on my latest date without a t'storm personally for a bit (June 6th) and the days keep counting.

 

60/33 today.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I think that's only an issue when streamflow aloft is offshore, at least from what I've seen? I'm also looking at 850mb-925mb temperatures. Obviously it's a fickle scenario either way given the frustratingly persistent model struggles this spring. It wouldn't take much for the 00z ECMWF/EPS to come in warmer. Slight phase changes could swing the results completely.

 

I've found myself relying more heavily on reanalysis-based modeling and analogs than usual this spring/summer. It's been over a month since the models experienced what appears be a massive stroke, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat aggravated at this point.

 

Its been the same on many days when there was solid onshore flow at all levels.    The ECMWF guidance seems to run 3-5 degrees too cool on average in the warm season around here with just a few exceptions.

 

00Z ECMWF looks pretty warm in the 7-10 period and still warm at day 10.    

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Silver Falls had 52/38 on 6/8/1964

 

Pulled off a 45/39 on 6/10/2008

 

Also hit 93 on 6/28/08

 

Wow. The last sub-50 high in June I had in K-Falls was 47 on 06/01/2011 and that was a very abnormally cool Spring. Also a fact that this was the only sub-50 here in well over 20 years. In June 2008 I didn't have any highs that cool and I'm higher in elevation.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Its been the same on many days when there was solid onshore flow at all levels. The ECMWF guidance seems to run 3-5 degrees too cool on average in the warm season around here with just a few exceptions.

 

00Z ECMWF looks pretty warm in the 7-10 period and still warm at day 10.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

Remember though, the physics in the EPS and control run aren't identical to that of the operational ECMWF. So I'm not sure it makes sense to compare their 2m temperature biases. Apples and oranges.

 

The 00z EPS still only has three warmer than average days over the next 15+ days @ SEA. There's definitely going to be a period of ridging as the jet retracts, but the subsequent retrogression isn't being accurately captured by any of the guidance right now, probably due to feedbacks involving the convectively forced diabatic heating poleward of the EPAC/Central American region, ahead of the MJO wave. This plays into the natural bias of the GFS/GEFS as well, so these models are the most severely affected.

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Remember though, the physics in the EPS and control run aren't identical to that of the operational ECMWF. So I'm not sure it makes sense to compare their 2m temperature biases. Apples and oranges.

 

The 00z EPS still only has three warmer than average days over the next 15+ days @ SEA. There's definitely going to be a period of ridging as the jet retracts, but the subsequent retrogression isn't being accurately captured by any of the guidance right now, probably due to feedbacks involving the convectively forced diabatic heating poleward of the EPAC/Central American region, ahead of the MJO wave. This plays into the natural bias of the GFS/GEFS as well, so these models are the most severely affected.

 

I don't doubt you on the pattern evolution... but the EPS seems to have the same bias with local temps.   It appears to run 3-5 degrees too cool most of the time in the warm season.

 

Monday - Thursday definitely look solidly below normal though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Father's Day weekend looking really shaky on the 12Z runs.   Ridge is delayed.  

 

12Z ECMWF actually shows rain on Sunday now.   

 

Time to shift plans to eastern WA.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like we are heading towards an absolutely crazy negative AAM... using the link that Phil sent me recently.   

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

I pulled the daily AAM file on that site (since 1990) into Excel and sorted it to find other periods when the AAM was extremely negative in the warm season.   

 

Late June and early July of 1994 featured a similar period when the AAM fell to -3.  That did not result in much troughing and in fact kicked off a very warm and dry July... that was the year of the massive fire in Leavenworth that started on July 24th and keep burning through the fall.   Locally... there was almost no rain even here from the 4th of July well into October.  

 

Another extremely negative AAM period occurred in August of 2007.   

 

For reference... the AAM was positive for the entire summer of 1993.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I also noticed that the ECMWF was not aggressive enough in cutting off this current trough... something that people have said it usually does way too aggressively.

 

Here is an example... this was what today looked on Tuesday morning at 120 hours out:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_6.png

 

And what actually happened:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is wrong:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B2FCD18-F97A-49AC-B92A-6F19B635E70D_zpsqfukhdat.jpg

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Follow-up on discussion yesterday... 12Z ECMWF showed a high of 65 at SEA today.   Its 67 as of 3 p.m. so it might get to 70.   Another example of being 3-5 degrees too cool for this area. 

 

For my area... it showed about 63 or 64 today and its 69 right now.  

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF map showing highs for today...

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_3.png

 

Mid afternoon and temps across the area are in the mid to upper 60s...  a few low 70s.   

 

temp_map.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What was the EPS-mean forecast for your area today? And why does the ECMWF (apparently) struggle around SEA but not around PDX?

 

I know that here (and globally) the ECMWF surface temperature verification is the best of the best.

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What was the EPS-mean forecast for your area today? And why does the ECMWF (apparently) struggle around SEA but not around PDX?

 

I know that here (and globally) the ECMWF surface temperature verification is the best of the best.

 

My guess is that it overestimates the effect of the Sound.   Its cool bias around here is pretty undeniable in the warm season... particularly on days with no frontal passage or stratiform precip. 

 

12Z EPS showed 65 at SEA as well... clearly too cool for today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My guess is that it overestimates the effect of the Sound. Its cool bias around here is pretty undeniable.

 

12Z EPS showed 65 at SEA as well... clearly too cool for today again.

So it has a warm bias in the winter, then? Or is the cool bias mostly confined to sunny days?

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So it has a warm bias in the winter, then? Or is the cool bias mostly confined to sunny days?

 

No clear bias in the winter... it does pretty well from what I can remember.

 

And not just sunny days in the warm season.   It has a cool bias almost all the time in the warm season except for frontal passage days or solidly rainy days.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No clear bias in the winter... it does pretty well from what I can remember.

 

And not just sunny days in the warm season.

Interesting. I'm going to watch this carefully when the ridge builds to the south and streamflow aloft changes to onshore.

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Interesting. I'm going to watch this carefully when the ridge builds to the south and streamflow aloft changes to onshore.

 

It was 5 degrees too cool both days last weekend with onshore flow at all levels.  

 

And it had 76 for Tuesday (6/6) at SEA under a ridge... the actual high was 84.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Follow-up on discussion yesterday... 12Z ECMWF showed a high of 65 at SEA today. Its 67 as of 3 p.m. so it might get to 70. Another example of being 3-5 degrees too cool for this area.

 

For my area... it showed about 63 or 64 today and its 69 right now.

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF map showing highs for today...

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_3.png

 

Mid afternoon and temps across the area are in the mid to upper 60s... a few low 70s.

 

temp_map.png

70 here currently, so it's too cool here as well.
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70 here currently, so it's too cool here as well.

 

Yep... same thing there.  Anywhere around the Puget Sound and Strait of Georgia.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I really like the 12z ECMWF progression, especially given its superior handling of that EPAC convection/MJO compared to the 12z GFS. I think this ECMWF run will end up much closer to reality than some of the other guidance right now.

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