June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I think the 12z EPS is also catching onto the correct solution. The move was subtle in the tropics but quite consequential in terms of the NE Pacific circulation.

 

The operational 12z ECMWF looks almost exactly like the progression I've envisioned. Hopefully the models will lock in here instead of prolonging it.

[TT-SEA]

 

The new 00Z ECMWF run shows 66 for SEA tomorrow.   You can play along at home... it will be 70 or 71 at SEA tomorrow.  

 

69 at SEA now.   70 is a lock.   

[Phil]

Looks like we are heading towards an absolutely crazy negative AAM... using the link that Phil sent me recently.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

I pulled the daily AAM file on that site (since 1990) into Excel and sorted it to find other periods when the AAM was extremely negative in the warm season.

 

Late June and early July of 1994 featured a similar period when the AAM fell to -3. That did not result in much troughing and in fact kicked off a very warm and dry July... that was the year of the massive fire in Leavenworth that started on July 24th and keep burning through the fall. Locally... there was almost no rain even here from the 4th of July well into October.

 

Another extremely negative AAM period occurred in August of 2007.

 

For reference... the AAM was positive for the entire summer of 1993.

The key is where/how the AAM removal is taking place. This is more like your typical La Niña cell under the initial EHEM sourced torques (like 2011 and 2012) as opposed to a developing El Niño Cell (like 1994 or 2009), where the jet retractions simply consolidated the Aleutian low/+PNA under Pacific forcing and EHEM/ATL subsidence.

 

A very high early-summer AAM integral (like 1993/1983, and 2016) is usually reflected via a very extended NPAC jet, which we have seen at times this year. Later in the summer it becomes tougher to extend the jet into the PNW/GOA. Usually it's the lower AAM that corresponds to offshore height rises and downstream west coast troughing.

 

The reduction in the AAM going forward will be reflected in the growing tendency for Aleutian/GOA ridging and continental style western/central US troughing. Much less of a zonal component and more of a meridional/continental component.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

70 here currently, so it's too cool here as well.

 

It's been sitting between 69~70F here for awhile now, nice clear air as well.

[TT-SEA]

High of 70 at SEA... through 5 p.m. at least.

 

ECMWF showed 62 yesterday and 65 today.   Actual was 67 and 70.    Exactly the same as last weekend being 5 degrees too cool each day.   But better than coming in 8 degrees too cool on Tuesday.  

[Jesse]

Don't know if it's been touched on yet, but today sure has been warm and sunny for being under a trough. I bet Jim's disappointed. Lol!

[TT-SEA]

Don't know if it's been touched on yet, but today sure has been warm and sunny for being under a trough. I bet Jim's disappointed. Lol!

 

I doubt it... it was very pleasant and dry.   He likes that.  

 

This is about the ECMWF guidance.    The models have been showing the ULL sinking far enough south today to be pretty nice since about Tuesday.  

 

Now the ULL heads to the northeast and ramps up the onshore flow and it turns even cooler.  

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1546-spring-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=242230

[Jesse]

Ridging definitely not looking as likely in the long range as it was a few days ago.

[TT-SEA]

Ridging definitely not looking as likely in the long range as it was a few days ago.

 

Definitely not.  

 

Re-booked our Richland getaway that we cancelled for Memorial Day weekend just in case.  ECMWF shows 90 there next weekend so it should be good regardless.  

[Jesse]

Definitely not.

 

Re-booked our Richland getaway that we cancelled for Memorial Day weekend just in case. ECMWF shows 90 there next weekend so it should be good regardless.

Prepare for 110 degree weather in that case.

[TT-SEA]

Prepare for 110 degree weather in that case.

 

I don't think Richland is on the Puget Sound.   

[Jesse]

I don't think Richland is on the Puget Sound.

115?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People vacation in tri cities now? can't wait to book my weekend in Moses Lake.

[Jesse]

People vacation in tri cities now? can't wait to book my weekend in Moses Lake.

 

We spent a lovely few nights in Othello during Memorial Day Weekend 2015.

[TT-SEA]

People vacation in tri cities now? can't wait to book my weekend in Moses Lake.

 

Richland is awesome for a weekend getaway.    Marriott suites at Columbia Point... they also built a couple new hotels there recently.    They have a marina and free slips for the boat... and a great golf course.   And lots of really nice wineries within a few miles with gorgeous views.   We love it there.   Perfect for a weekend escape.

 

You should try it before you knock it.   And when its gloomy on this side its usually spectacular over there.  

 

http://cache.marriott.com/propertyimages/p/psccy/psccy_main03.jpg

 

http://www.golfwashington.com/images/course_pics/columbia_point_600a.jpg

 

http://www.visittri-cities.com/media/1107/tri-cities-wa.jpg

 

http://cdn.wedding-spot.com/images/venues/8114/Terra-Blanca-Winery-&-Estate-Vineyard-Wedding-Benton-City-WA-3.1461963224.jpg

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is going zonal into the weekend... ridge has vanished.  

[Jesse]

Richland is awesome for a weekend getaway.    Marriott suites at Columbia Point... they also built a couple new hotels there recently.    They have a marina and free slips for the boat... and a great golf course.   And lots of really nice wineries within a few miles with gorgeous views.   We love it there.   Perfect for a weekend escape.

 

You should try it before you knock it.   And when its gloomy on this side its usually spectacular over there.  

 

 

The second picture is really ugly. The rest are nice though. 

 

I agree that it is an underrated area. 

[TT-SEA]

The second picture is really ugly. The rest are nice though. 

 

I agree that it is an underrated area. 

 

 

I figured you would not like the golf course.   I am sure its watered with reclaimed water.  But still... its pretty unnatural.  It is a fun course though.

 

Have you ever flown into Palm Springs?    

[Phil]

00Z GFS is going zonal into the weekend... ridge has vanished.

It still has that bogus EPAC/WHEM convection that's absent on the rest of guidance. Toss it.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is going zonal into the weekend... ridge has vanished.  

 

Actually just delayed.

[Phil]

Actually just delayed.

It's "delayed" in this case because the GFS's bias towards an EPAC MJO (usually) develops towards the end of week-1, and is therefore perpetually pushed back until the MJO clears the Pacific altogether.

 

The ridge was supposed to start Wednesday evening (as of last Tuesday). Now it's Sunday evening and it's being pushed back to next Monday. Coincidence?

[TT-SEA]

It's "delayed" in this case because the GFS's bias towards an EPAC MJO (usually) develops towards the end of week-1, and is therefore perpetually pushed back until the MJO clears the Pacific altogether.

 

The ridge was supposed to start Wednesday evening (as of last Tuesday). Now it's Sunday evening and it's being pushed back to next Monday. Coincidence?

 

Probably never comes.   Hose job too.  

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous evening for a walk down in North Bend... it was sunny almost all day but the marine layer started back-building from the Cascades right before sunset.

 

[Phil]

Probably never comes. Hose job too.

I think the ridge does develop/expand over the PNW during the retrogression process, as we start losing AAM. Just for a few days though, maybe 3-4 days tops?

[TT-SEA]

I think the ridge does develop/expand over the PNW during the retrogression process, as we start losing AAM. Just for a few days though, maybe 3-4 days tops?

 

Might just be me... but this has the feeling of an all around perfectly normal June in this area.   

[Phil]

The GFS/GEFS MJO problem has less to do with the development of the ridge, and more to do with failing to pick up the retrogression. Such an infuriating bias sometimes, because once you screw up the differential mass deposition, the rest of the model run will turn into a joke.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GEM and 00Z GFS look almost identical in the 7-10 period.

[Phil]

Might just be me... but this has the feeling of an all around perfectly normal June in this area.

I'll leave those details to you.

[TT-SEA]

I'll leave those details to you.

 

It just has felt perfectly normal for June in all regards.   Some sun... some marine layer days... some rain... a couple really warm days.    Alternating back and forth.    

 

Temperatures will be close to normal for the month after this week.    

 

Pretty much textbook June for this area and I don't really see anything to change that ahead.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS somehow picks up the retrogression this run, despite the horrible performance in the tropics. I think by the time the MJO biases develop, the upstream AAM removal has progressed enough to override the forcing from the EPAC convective exhaust.

 

If this hypothesis is correct, then the next few days will see the retrogression signal strengthen on the modeling (or at least on the GFS/GEFS suite).

[Jesse]

 

I figured you would not like the golf course.   I am sure its watered with reclaimed water.  But still... its pretty unnatural.  It is a fun course though.

 

Have you ever flown into Palm Springs?    

 

I have not. But I know it is a golf coursey oasis in the desert.

[TT-SEA]

I have not. But I know it is a golf coursey oasis in the desert.

 

Its sand for as far as you can see... and then all of sudden its lush and green for almost as far as you can see.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

North Bend looks beautiful.

 

Nice pics of that Tri Cities Oasis. I have certainly not seen that side of the area. Walla Walla is not bad.

[epiceast]

Richland is awesome for a weekend getaway.    Marriott suites at Columbia Point... they also built a couple new hotels there recently.    They have a marina and free slips for the boat... and a great golf course.   And lots of really nice wineries within a few miles with gorgeous views.   We love it there.   Perfect for a weekend escape.

 

You should try it before you knock it.   And when its gloomy on this side its usually spectacular over there.  

 

http://cache.marriott.com/propertyimages/p/psccy/psccy_main03.jpg

 

http://www.golfwashington.com/images/course_pics/columbia_point_600a.jpg

 

http://www.visittri-cities.com/media/1107/tri-cities-wa.jpg

 

http://cdn.wedding-spot.com/images/venues/8114/Terra-Blanca-Winery-&-Estate-Vineyard-Wedding-Benton-City-WA-3.1461963224.jpg

 

I am not the one to get into fights with tim... But please stop. At least post pictures of Wenatchee if you want to promote Eastern Washington as a place to visit. 

[BLI snowman]

I am not the one to get into fights with tim... But please stop. At least post pictures of Wenatchee if you want to promote Eastern Washington as a place to visit. 

 

Ephrata is breathtaking.

[TT-SEA]

I am not the one to get into fights with tim... But please stop. At least post pictures of Wenatchee if you want to promote Eastern Washington as a place to visit.

There are some great areas around Richland. We love going there. Lots of wine tourists from the Seattle area too.   We would not want to go back again and again if we did not like it.   

 

Justin - Ephrata is pretty boring but Crescent Bar is awesome and just a few miles away.   This is really close for us... about 75 minutes away and an entirely different world.  

 

My sons on the jet ski we rented on our last trip...

 

 

 

 

We did not go all the way down to the actual bar since its pretty crazy and not a good place for kids... but its a huge party every weekend. 

 

http://vp.cdn.cityvoterinc.com/g/00-00-04-60-75-75-4607575_1792559.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Another beautiful area is Lake Chelan.   The wineries around the lake have breathtaking views.

 

http://golakechelan.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/2016/05/31141413/Benson-Vineyards-1-e1464732983501.jpg

 

http://www.j9bing.com/images/projects/venues/benson-vineyards/benson-vineyards-header.jpg

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF just goes with flat ridging.

 

Also shows a significant rain event for most areas on Thursday into Friday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF just goes with flat ridging.

 

Also shows a significant rain event for most areas on Thursday into Friday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Also getting ready to retrograde everything in a big way come days 9 & 10. Hopefully the models stay the course this time.