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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Of course it's subjective. When talking about things that look nice, or what someone likes more over someone else, it's always personal opinion.

Yes. That is my point. Which is why I find the "Easztern Wa SUCKS Easztern Ore RULEZ!!" stuff to be overly simplistic and annoying.

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We are really due for some big time summer heat. It's been years.

 

 

12Z ECMWF is trying!  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061212/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Agreed.

 

Also...any other Burns fans out there?? High desert paradise!

 

I really like Burns down south to the Nevada border. Also Burns east to Ontario has its rugged desert charms. The Bend to Burns road is pretty forgettable. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sure, it's your opinion. Present it as such then, don't state it like it's fact.

 

And all this assessment really tells me is that you haven't traveled around the region very extensively, and have a very basic impression of the different parts of the state. The Siskiyou mountains in SW Oregon, for instance, are a completely different type of area than the "boring" western Oregon Coast range. The Rogue and Illinois River canyons are incredibly scenic. Also, as for your coastal ruggedness comparison, the Olympic coast says hi. Then you have numerous mountain ranges in the northern tier of Eastern washington that are high, rugged and pretty far from wheat fields. Even the channeled scablands have a very unique beauty.

 

Like you said, both gorgeous states. I guess we can agree there. ;)

 

I've actually traveled extensively to every corner of each state, aside from having the pleasure of visiting  much of Malheur County in SE Oregon (and the Great Basin is generally a little prettier than the Columbia Basin).

 

The Olympic coast north of La Push is a way smaller stretch of gorgeous coastline than OR's beaches, and I find the Olympics a lot more appealing than the Siskiyous. NE Washington from Spokane on up is quite nice, but still less appealing than the Blue and Wallowa Ranges in NE Oregon.

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Here comes the -QBO. Could actually make it to 50mb before the end of summer (much faster than I was originally thinking).

 

Already entrenched at 30mb.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/789E868F-56A4-4410-9FF5-3E0914F7AF00_zpsnlpx5v6c.jpg

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Here comes the -QBO. Could actually make it to 50mb before the end of summer (much faster than I was originally thinking).

 

Already entrenched at 30mb.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/789E868F-56A4-4410-9FF5-3E0914F7AF00_zpsnlpx5v6c.jpg

 

Is this a development that I will find pleasing?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I know retrogressions can be difficult, but there's absolutely no excuse for this level of incompetence in the modeling. If it doesn't improve by July, I'm probably going to take a break from long range forecasting until the Fall. I don't have the patience for it anymore.

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I know retrogressions can be difficult, but there's absolutely no excuse for this kind of incompetence in the modeling. If it doesn't improve by July, I'm probably going to take a break from long range forecasting until the Fall. I don't have the patience for it anymore.

 

Is this also indicative of a development that I will find pleasing?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is this a development that I will find pleasing?

If you're a fan of high latitude blocking, stronger tropical convection/MJO, and a more active wavetrain, then yeah you'll like the -QBO more than the +QBO.

 

Exactly how it alters the summer pattern progression remains to be seen. Could have a number of impacts.

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Is this also indicative of a development that I will find pleasing?

If you miss the old days of not knowing what the weather will do beyond a few days, then yeah you'll find it pleasing. ;)

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If you're a fan of high latitude blocking, stronger tropical convection/MJO, and a more active wavetrain, then yeah you'll like the -QBO more than the +QBO.

 

Exactly how it alters the summer pattern progression remains to be seen. Could have a number of impacts.

Too vague. I think you said August or September would be warm due to the QBO going negative.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If you miss the old days of not knowing what the weather will do beyond a few days, then yeah you'll find it pleasing. ;)

Feels locally like the stage is set for a warm second half of summer. We will see.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Too vague. I think you said August or September would be warm due to the QBO going negative.

One or both of those months should be warm, but that's not because of the -QBO. At least not directly.

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Feels locally like the stage is set for a warm second half of summer. We will see.

Not if we see a massive June heatwave. Although I'm sure this summer will find a way to be hot at times the whole way through. Like almost every 21st century summer.

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I've actually traveled extensively to every corner of each state, aside from having the pleasure of visiting much of Malheur County in SE Oregon (and the Great Basin is generally a little prettier than the Columbia Basin).

 

The Olympic coast north of La Push is a way smaller stretch of gorgeous coastline than OR's beaches, and I find the Olympics a lot more appealing than the Siskiyous. NE Washington from Spokane on up is quite nice, but still less appealing than the Blue and Wallowa Ranges in NE Oregon.

Fair enough. I just have a really hard time comparing places like the Olympics and Siskiyous, for instance. Apples to oranges, since both have very appealing qualities and a totally different feel to them.

 

Same with the Wallowas and say, the Purcells in NE Washington. Both lovely spots in their own right.

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Not if we see a massive June heatwave. Although I'm sure this summer will find a way to be hot at times the whole way through. Like almost every 21st century summer.

The zonal thermo-convective gradient across the tropical Pacific is your summer weather driver. It just so happens we've had a bunch of years with weak gradients/cells in the 21st century.

 

Both 2016 and 2017 were/are basically neutral in this regard, so

the off-equator forcing/torques and QBO/NAM have played exaggerated roles. That should be coming to an end with the solar minimum approaching.

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Not if we see a massive June heatwave. Although I'm sure this summer will find a way to be hot at times the whole way through. Like almost every 21st century summer.

There will be no massive June heatwave.

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The zonal thermo-convective gradient across the tropical Pacific is your summer weather driver. It just so happens we've had a bunch of years with weak gradients/cells in the 21st century.

 

Both 2016 and 2017 were/are basically neutral in this regard, so

the off-equator forcing/torques and QBO/NAM have played exaggerated roles. That should be coming to an end with the solar minimum approaching.

Or global warming. ;)

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This one could be bump worthy in about a week. ;)

In terms of duration, I'm still thinking 3-4 days of ridging before the retrogression. Have been saying that for a week now.

 

If that's a "massive heatwave", then you're going to hate the later portions of summer and autumn. Because they're going to be quite warm.

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In terms of duration, I'm still thinking 3-4 days of ridging before the retrogression. Have been saying that for a week now.

 

If that's a "massive heatwave", then you're going to hate the later portions of summer and autumn. Because they're going to be quite warm.

 

Most heatwaves in the PNW last 3-4 days. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks pretty similar to the operational. Just a little less amplified, which is to be expected.

Yeah, and it retrogrades into a -PNA in the d11-15 period following the upstream AAM removal, after exactly four days of ridging.

 

#massiveheatwave

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I can feel the freak out pendulum swinging on the strong back of the 12z suite.

 

Lucky for the rest of us it will likely swing back or nullify in 24-48 hours.

I'm above the fray this time. Western ridging helps sustain troughing and severe weather around here, so I'd be perfectly fine with Jesse's "massive heatwave" coming to fruition.

 

I am indeed "freaking out" about the current state of weather and climate modeling, though. A few months ago we had a unanimous consensus on another super niño for next winter. Billions of dollars wasted on models that can't predict climate beyond two months.

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In terms of duration, I'm still thinking 3-4 days of ridging before the retrogression. Have been saying that for a week now.

 

If that's a "massive heatwave", then you're going to hate the later portions of summer and autumn. Because they're going to be quite warm.

 

:)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In terms of duration, I'm still thinking 3-4 days of ridging before the retrogression. Have been saying that for a week now.

 

If that's a "massive heatwave", then you're going to hate the later portions of summer and autumn. Because they're going to be quite warm.

If they end up as warm as June has been frigid, I will be a happy camper.

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If they end up as warm as June has been frigid, I will be a happy camper.

Take a break from the models for a few days. You do this every time ridging shows up the clown range.

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I'm above the fray this time. Western ridging helps sustain troughing and severe weather around here, so I'd be perfectly fine with Jesse's "massive heatwave" coming to fruition.

 

I am indeed "freaking out" about the current state of weather and climate modeling, though. A few months ago we had a unanimous consensus on another super niño for next winter. Billions of dollars wasted on models that can't predict climate beyond two months.

Trumptastic.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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