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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Timmy Supercell
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Timmy Supercell
Timmy Supercell

Okay, onto June! Warm or cool month?   Oh btw, here's a rainbow from earlier this evening to kick off the new thread. :v This one lasted a half hour. Very rare for a bow to last longer than 10 minutes

Jesse
Jesse

Looking NW to the marine layer moving in over Tillamook Bay (from the summit of Mt. Hebo).  

wx_statman
wx_statman

Off topic, but this is kinda cool. This image shows annual tree-ring growth from a tree core that was taken out of a Douglas fir in the central Cascades. You can clearly see what looks like the coolin

Posted Images

Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Posted

New EPS weeklies also show the retrogression, but follow it up with another extended jet/coastal trough pattern, very similar to the current regime.

 

Seems to be the major theme of this year, which actually makes me semi-curious about what the EPO will do under this winter's waveguide given -QBO boundary conditions. If we do return to the -ENSO with WPAC subsidence, then that's a +EPO/hose job catastrophe barring a massive -AO/strat attack.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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18z GFS is much closer to solving the retrogression. Let's see if it actually gets there.

It does solve it, just a few days too slow and damp with the entire process (which begins day 8/9). Should occur between June 20th and 25th given the rate of AAM removal, but likely on the earlier side of that range, in my opinion.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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It does solve it, just a few days too slow and damp with the entire process (which begins day 8/9). Should occur between June 20th and 25th given the rate of AAM removal, but likely on the earlier side of that range, in my opinion.

 

Are you talking about a trough swinging through around 6/25 in 13 days?

 

If there is a warm spell next week then I don't even have to look at the models to know a trough will be coming through the next weekend.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Are you talking about a trough swinging through around 6/25 in 13 days?

 

If there is a warm spell next week then I don't even have to look at the models to know a trough will be coming through the next weekend. ;)

I'm talking about the pattern progression. In this case, a full retrogression of the ridge offshore into a more -PNA/western trough style circulation as opposed to a extended jet/GOA vortex type circulation.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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I'm talking about the pattern progression. In this case, a full retrogression of the ridge offshore into a more -PNA/western trough style circulation as opposed to a extended jet/GOA vortex type circulation.

 

Ahhh.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I like the 00Z GFS for the weekend... nice improvement over the already improved 12Z run.   

 

Temperature anomaly map for Sunday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061300/gfs_T2ma_us_25.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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But the 00Z GFS is also very different for early next week... definitely not a massive heat wave on that run.

Poor model cant figure out how to retrograde the ridge, so it just disintegrates it and reforms a new one offshore. Classic GFS.

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

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Got up to about 70F here today but there's a strong marine push coming in this evening, things really cooled down in a hurry. Has it hit your area yet, or are you normally more sheltered from marine pushes?

West wind kicked up around 4pm and things cooled off quickly after about 6pm.
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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SEA maxed at 64*F today, which was actually colder than the ECMWF had forecasted by two degrees. So perhaps streamflow aloft is indeed a factor there, rather than some mysterious warm bias unique to SEA.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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SEA maxed at 64*F today, which was actually colder than the ECMWF had forecasted. So perhaps streamflow aloft is indeed a factor there, rather than some mysterious warm bias unique to just SEA.

 

 

I was going to mention that... it came down to placement of the thickest cloud cover which hung on over SEA.   

 

I assure you that this issue is not specifically related to the station itself.   Its generally too cool for all of King County for sure and it appears to be all of the Puget Sound region.

 

Keep watching.   It will run too cool on 80% or more of the days.   It happens on solid onshore flow days all the time. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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I was going to mention that... it came down to placement of the thickest cloud cover which hung on over SEA.

 

I assure you that this issue is not specifically related to the station itself. Its generally too cool for all of King County for sure and it appears to be all of the Puget Sound region.

 

Keep watching. It will run too cool on 80% or more of the days.

Don't worry, I'm watching. :)

 

Seems the departures were larger down south compared to areas around Puget Sound. PDX finished with a -13 departure on the high.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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00Z ECMWF shows that SEA does not get above 62 for the rest of the work week (61, 60, 59, 62).

 

Then absolutely bakes at 67 and 70 over the weekend!     <_>

 

Lets check back on these results.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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ECMWF shows total sunshine and 70 at SEA on Sunday: 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061300/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_7.png

 

 

I am willing to bet $500 (and I will pay up) that SEA does not have high below 75 on Sunday.  

 

I will also bet SEA gets above 62 before Saturday afternoon which is what the 00Z ECMWF shows.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Model biases don't just appear and disappear on a whim. If they're not statistically identifiable, they're not biases.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Model biases don't just appear and disappear on a whim. If they're not statistically identifiable, they're not biases.

Statistically... I am sure the ECMWF is too cool on the vast majority of the days in the warm season for SEA and King County.

 

Not all... but the vast majority. Call it what you want.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Wow, it was around +2 here today on the northern edge of the region.

This might explain it. ECMWF initialized with a warm pocket of 850s over southern BC into extreme northern WA.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16EBD032-3D62-4A4C-BD7D-5A70017E3E5C_zpspuwziebt.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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This might explain it. ECMWF initialized with a warm pocket of 850s over southern BC into extreme northern WA.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16EBD032-3D62-4A4C-BD7D-5A70017E3E5C_zpspuwziebt.png

 

 

It was because of the marine layer configuration... it was sunny up there most of the day and very gloomy elsewhere.   Very typical in a set up like this with a ULL to the east... sunny up there and the clouds banked against the mountains.  

 
SjWJBvl.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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The marine layer is reflected in the thermals, though. Sensible heat flux is reduced above an inversion.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The marine layer is reflected in the thermals, though. Sensible heat flux is reduced above cloud cover.

 

Its definitely reflected in the 850mb temps.   I have seen it hundreds of times with a cool pool over the lowlands of WA and OR surrounded by warm 850mb temps in every direction.

 

But its often a reflection of the topography and not random. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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Quarter inch of rain this morning

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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Posted

Only 57 here yesterday. Coolest high of the month.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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