June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Glad to help remind you. It can be easy to want to forget about major busts like that. At the time you seemed pretty sure about it.

 

Calling for a warmer than average May around the time the models started trending warmer for the second half of the month was impressive, though. You can most certainly keep that one. Getting ahead of yourself and going for a top 10 warm month was also pretty understandable given the context. All the winning started going to your head.

 

I started calling for a warm May in April. Who gives a . Apply the butt cream, move on.

[Phil]

Today should pull OLM's monthly departure into negative territory, joining EUG/SLE/PDX.

 

PDX: -5

OLM: -4

SLE: -2

SEA -3

EUG: -4

[Phil]

Even adding two degrees into the EPS mean, verbatim, about 41/51 members would have June finish with a negative anomaly at all stations (except maybe SEA). The 00z GEFS mean would finish below normal at all stations including SEA.

[TT-SEA]

Even adding two degrees into the EPS mean, verbatim, about 41/51 members would have June finish with a negative anomaly at all stations (except maybe SEA). The 00z GEFS mean would finish below normal at all stations including SEA.

 

I don't think PDX, SLE, and EUG are subject to the Puget Sound region cool bias.

[Phil]

I don't think PDX, SLE, and EUG are subject to the Puget Sound region cool bias.

I know the ECMWF nailed the departures at EUG/PDX. I didn't pay enough attention to SLE though.

 

SEA was still +1.6 as of this morning, so it'll be tough to bring it down below average. The rest should be much easier given essentially all of the modeling depicts the next two weeks running cooler than average overall (especially the last week of June which could be moderately to significant cooler than average).

[Phil]

101 indeed. The earliest 100 was actually on 6/10/2008 (teleconnection to our massive trough on that day), while the previous earliest 101 was on 6/26/1952.

Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

[Front Ranger]

I know the ECMWF nailed the departures at EUG/PDX. I didn't pay enough attention to SLE though.

 

SEA was still +1.6 as of this morning, so it'll be tough to bring it down below average. The rest should be much easier given essentially all of the modeling depicts the next two weeks running cooler than average overall (especially the last week of June which could be moderately to significant cooler than average).

 

Seattle WFO was running +1.3 and BLI +1.5, so it's not like SEA is way out there ahead of the rest of the Puget Soud region this month.

[Phil]

Seattle WFO was running +1.3 and BLI +1.5, so it's not like SEA is way out there ahead of the rest of the Puget Soud region this month.

Well, it's basically a bubble of warmth around the Sound, so yeah it's not confined to one station. The bubble might not survive the last week of June anyway, so perhaps this is a moot point.

[TT-SEA]

Well, it's basically a bubble of warmth around the Sound, so yeah it's not confined to one station. The bubble might not survive the last week of June anyway, so perhaps this is a moot point.

 

The bubble survives even when its below normal if that area is still warmer (compared to average) than the region around it.  

[Phil]

The bubble survives even when its below normal if that area is still warmer (compared to average) than the region around it.

Yeah, I guess that's true. Though modeling does like the northern zones for cooler anomalies relative to southern zones until the trough really digs in during the last week of the month.

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aNFBzeCtmN8

[wx_statman]

Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

 

I'm kinda curious too. I don't know. 

 

It seems like they've normally run closer to Central Park and JFK, just by looking at some of the bigger heat waves. I.e. on 7/6/2010 it was 103-103-101 at the three stations. On 7/22/2011 it was 104-104-103. Looking further back to 7/3/1966, when LGA hit 107, it was 104 & 103 at the other two stations. Makes me think something funky is going on. 

[Jesse]

[wx_statman]

I'll be Jennifer Aniston.

 

You were a hottie in Leprechaun.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is quite a bit warmer for next week compared to the last couple runs.

[BLI snowman]

Ah, thanks for the correction. I guess I do wonder if LGA has a SEA-esque effect ongoing during west winds, given that runway configuration.

 

Humidity kept us in the mid 90s, but it felt especially miserable this afternoon. The air was just so heavy and suffocating.

 

I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

[Phil]

I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

You're an a**.

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF is quite a bit warmer for next week compared to the last couple runs.

It's like the GFS and ECMWF swapped biases. Now the GFS throws a ton of energy back under the retrograding anticyclone while the ECMWF is over-dampening the wavetrain during the mass displacement cycle. End result should be somewhere in between the two solutions.

[Jesse]

I was actually sweating a bunch a little earlier as I ran quickly out of my 70 degree office stairwell and into the 64 degree evening air. Was a little nerve-wracking and uncomfortable, quite honestly.

 

Not enough sweat if you ask me. I thought this was summer. <_>

[ShawniganLake]

00Z ECMWF is quite a bit warmer for next week compared to the last couple runs.

Canadian looks pretty warm too

[Phil]

Bias-corrected 00z GEFS came in more bullish and coherent with the retrogression. Waiting to see what the 00z EPS decides to do.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D9F9DA65-EA70-4735-85F9-CD0BD9D914EF_zpsejjjbz6n.gif

[BLI snowman]

Not enough sweat if you ask me. I thought this was summer. <_>

 

I'm thinking some 70+ lows are in order about July 25.

 

Maybe a sprinkling of 65 degree morning fog in there.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Today wouldn't feel out of place in the fall, but certainly isn't your typical June day. Currently 52F and windy/cloudy/rainy this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any sign of a multi-day heatwave is kind of gone from the ensembles now...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp departures in Oregon for June so far.

 

Astoria: -0.8

EUG: -1.4

PDX: -0.7

SLE: -0.3

RDM: -1.1

K-Falls: -1.5

MDF: -1.4

[ShawniganLake]

Southern Vancouver island looks to be in the +1 to +1.5 range for June so far.

[Front Ranger]

Southern Vancouver island looks to be in the +1 to +1.5 range for June so far.

 

Yeah, distinct N/S warm/cool gradient for June so far, which should even out over the next week or so. OR looks pretty warm from Sunday on.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, distinct N/S warm/cool gradient for June so far, which should even out over the next week or so. OR looks pretty warm from Sunday on.

Yea. Looks like it may stay pretty cloudy up this way.

[stuffradio]

I think sunshine is the best thing since sliced bread.

[Jesse]

Yeah, distinct N/S warm/cool gradient for June so far, which should even out over the next week or so. OR looks pretty warm from Sunday on.

12z GFS ensembles suggest that northern Oregon may cool off as well, after Sunday/Monday.

[Jesse]

I think sunshine is the best thing since sliced bread.

Then you shouldn't be living in a gluten-free climate.

[stuffradio]

Then you shouldn't be living in a gluten-free climate.

We grow wheat and other grains here.

 

Ideally, I would get one soaker day a week with amounts close to an inch, like .5-.8 inches so I don't have to water my field vegetables.

[ShawniganLake]

Wet today!

[Phil]

The d6-10 period is gonna be very rough for the models.

 

Those residual low heights in central Canada during the tropically-forced retrogression will make for a very complicated exchange as the SW US anticyclone weakens.

[Kayla]

The d6-10 period is gonna be very rough for the models.

 

Those residual low heights in central Canada during the tropically-forced retrogression will make for a very complicated exchange as the SW US anticyclone weakens.

 

Long ways out but that low on the 18z GFS looks incredibly chilly for late June! Snow at face value here with some crazy surface and upper air temp departures. Would be fun to see verify.

[Jesse]

Definitely an Octoberish vibe today. Pretty wet and windy system.

[TT-SEA]

I was looking back at daily records for the Snoqualmie Valley... I think this June might end up with more days below 70 than June 2011.    There were 20 days in June 2011 at or above 70 in the valley... only 5 so far this month.   We would need to run out the month above 70.   Not going to happen.  

 

I completely forgot about how nice it was during the entire week of the 4th of July in 2011.   That was a pretty nice summer in retrospect.   There was rain on just 9 days in the entire Jul-Sept period. 

 

June 2012 was pretty bad.   But the reward was an absolutely perfect Jul-Sept period.  

[Deweydog]

I was looking back at daily records for the Snoqualmie Valley... I think this June might end up with more days below 70 than June 2011. There were 20 days in June 2011 at or above 70 in the valley... only 5 so far this month. We would need to run out the month above 70. Not going to happen.

 

I completely forgot about how nice it was during the entire week of the 4th of July in 2011. That was a pretty nice summer in retrospect. There was rain on just 9 days in the entire Jul-Sept period.

 

June 2012 was pretty bad. But the reward was an absolutely perfect Jul-Sept period.

This post reminded me of the fact I don't remember much of anything about June 1998.

 

Edit: I do remember getting in a car wreck that month with a friend of mine. Not weather related.

[TT-SEA]

Even June of 2010 at 14 days at or above 70.   We might not make that.  

[stuffradio]

As of 8:50 PM, I'm at .76" today. I've received 2.59" of rain this month now so far. If the 18Z is correct, I will have above average rain for the month. Average is just over 4", I just need 1.47" and the 18Z says 1.65" is what I will receive.

[TT-SEA]

Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week... 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061600/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_31.png

[Deweydog]

7-10-08!

[stuffradio]

Did you guys see the latest JAMSTEC for DJF? It has a -PDO and colder than normal surface temps. That would be crazy to have two winters in a row of above normal snow. This year was crazy.

[Phil]

Nice pattern on the 00Z GFS late next week...

I think it's safe to say this won't happen:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg

 

Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nope

[epiceast]

I think it's safe to say this won't happen:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/52880817-F8A9-4A83-8C18-2C5D7827AAF9_zps7xndxjow.jpg

 

Somehow it breaks an appendage off the running ULL and squeezes it into the ridge during the retrogression, then it rephases with the ULL beneath the ridge once the mass displacement progresses beyond its longitude. #nope

So PNW gets a trough instead.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the 00Z GEM looks similar at the same time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017061600/gem_z500aNorm_namer_37.png

[Phil]

So PNW gets a trough instead.

Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore.

 

Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up.

[TT-SEA]

Probably. At least a more consolidated ridge centered farther offshore.

 

Shortwaves under mass-displacement retrogressions are like beachballs floating on ocean waves that are on the cusp of breaking..very difficult to model and easy to screw up.

 

Good analogy.  

[ShawniganLake]

Did you guys see the latest JAMSTEC for DJF? It has a -PDO and colder than normal surface temps. That would be crazy to have two winters in a row of above normal snow. This year was crazy.

Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow.

[TT-SEA]

Not really anymore crazy than having two winters in a row of below normal snow.

 

 

Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal.   Not sure if that is the case.