June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Rain has been pounding on the roof all evening.   Sounds like November.

[ShawniganLake]

Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal. Not sure if that is the case.

That is a valid point. Years like '96 would be more above normal than a snowless winter would be below normal.

 

I think the last stretch of above normal snow years in SW BC would be 06/07, 07/08, 08/09.

[TT-SEA]

SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours.      Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37 

 

Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping. 

[Phil]

SEA had already set a daily rainfall record on the evening climate data for today and they have received .53 in the last 6 hours. Over an inch on the day... the previous daily rainfall record was only .37

 

Closing in on 1.75 inches here and still dumping.

Why aren't you outside enjoying it?

[stuffradio]

Why aren't you outside enjoying it?

Isn't it your bedtime now? It's almost 3am!

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF looks just like the GFS and GEM for late next week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061600/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

[WeatherArchive]

Man is it humid or what!  The strong (storm) which isn't really only netted about 0.20 of rain.   Maybe I got rainshadowed or the storm went up north to Washington but it didn't even get windy either.  I can't say for the coast if the high wind advisory wind up being dropped. 

 

It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.  I hope this isn't a trend and is just a random blip.   Please don't let us go back to 2013 warmth.

[Phil]

Isn't it your bedtime now? It's almost 3am!

We just got back from doing this. Pretty sure I was the only one posting on a weather forum at the time.

 

[WeatherArchive]

Rain has been pounding on the roof all evening.   Sounds like November.

Oh you stole it all!   Okay not all we got 0.20 but boy it's humid.  The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.

[Phil]

Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.

Boy it's humid.  The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.

[BLI snowman]

Unless our snowfall averages are skewed upward by really big years... then most years would be below normal.   Not sure if that is the case. 

 

It is.

 

Median snowfall runs probably 40-60% below mean snowfall throughout the PNW lowlands.

[Tyler Mode]

Ended up with 0.84" yesterday, my 2nd wettest June day at this location.

[Jesse]

PDX is finally up to normal for the month to date, precip wise. Temps running about a degree below normal now.

[Jesse]

 

Man is it humid or what! It's still 61F and we are in for one of the warmest if not the warmest (night) of the season so far to date.

Boy it's humid. The humidity is in the 90s percent range making it feel warmer then it actually is.

You have really awful memes.

[Phil]

You have really awful memes.

Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night.

[Phil]

12z GFS lost that crazy trapped ULL in the clown range.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS lost that crazy trapped ULL in the clown range.

 

12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

[Jesse]

Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it...

 

 

At least you have the recent rock solid consistency of the models on your side.

[TT-SEA]

At least you have the recent rock solid consistency of the models on your side.

 

 

On my side?   I have no frickin clue what will happen.   I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate.   Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close.    He is better than any one model.

[stuffradio]

The temperature anomaly has been cool so far.

 

[Jesse]

On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.

I didn't really mean anything by that. More a poke at the models.

[Guest happ]

The temperature anomaly has been cool so far.

 

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png

 

Unfortunately the cool anomaly for California is turning radically warm. 

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF still sort of likes it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

It was closer to losing it this time, though. Backed that BC shortwave/ULL westward last minute to produce the phase but that's probably bulls***t.

[Phil]

 

Was the best I could find in my somewhat loaded state-of-mind last night.

Touché.

[Phil]

On my side? I have no frickin clue what will happen. I defer to Phil and then ask questions or point out things as I think appropriate. Chances are pretty high that Phil will be close. He is better than any one model.

I appreciate the rave review, but I think you might be overestimating my abilities.

[Phil]

Oregon is going to perform much better than Washington with the upcoming warm stretch. At PDX, 6/15 days feature warm anomalies, while SEA only gets 3/15 days, verbatim.

[Phil]

The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113

 

The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1

[Guest happ]

The weekly CFSv2 has an outrageous warm bias, which is evident even by week three. From what I can decipher, it's possibly a product of new radiative transfer physics added into the latest version.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=113

 

The 500mb averages are laughable. Completely useless.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017061606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=1

 

ouch!

[TT-SEA]

Nice afternoon... partly cloudy and 67 here.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice afternoon... partly cloudy and 67 here.

Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy.

[Jesse]

Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy.

Still just 63 down here with mostly cloudy skies.

[luvssnow_seattle]

59 here and mostly cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

59 here and mostly cloudy.

 

Strange.   You must be too far south.

 

68 at SEA now.

 

Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon?   Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since.  

[Phil]

Strange. You must be too far south.

 

68 at SEA now.

 

Phil... remember when the ECMWF showed the SEA would not get up to 62 until Saturday afternoon? Its been over 62 on 3 of the 4 days since.

That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out.

 

And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS.

[Jesse]

59 here and mostly cloudy.

You just got yourself on the list buddy!

[TT-SEA]

That was one run, though. Yesterday was 61 (cooler than ECMWF forecast) and the 12th was 64 (on target). So only half were warmer than forecast by a day out.

 

And the ECMWF's cumulative error score was still lower than the GFS MOS.

 

 

Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain.   

 

There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week.    We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period.   Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure.  

[TT-SEA]

Good example again today... 12Z ECMWF this morning showed a high of 64 at SEA.   Just 12 hours later its 68.   GFS MOS had 68 at SEA today.  

[Phil]

Yesterday was a wild card with back edge of the rain.

 

There were several runs which showed only upper 50s and low 60s for most of this week. We have seen 65, 65, 61, and at least 68 for the Tues-Fri period. Its been warmer overall than you would think if you were only looking at the ECMWF back on Sunday and Monday for sure.

The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm.

 

Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch.

[Phil]

Wow. Looking into the SV archives, the GFS MOS has actually busted warm on all but two days this month. I didn't realize it sucked that bad.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS MOS kept rain around just as long as the ECMWF last night, and it still busted too warm.

Having monitored the ECMWF and GFS MOS over the last six days, while I can confirm the modest cool leanings on the ECMWF (overall), the GFS MOS has demonstrated even larger errors on the warm side, sometimes by up to +6 degrees. The ECMWF never busted by that much during this stretch.

Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound.

[Phil]

Yes... the GFS MOS has its issues as well. The ECMWF is so good with everything overall and the best with temps elsewhere so my expectations are higher. It clearly overestimates the effect of the Puget Sound.

Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm?

[TT-SEA]

Does it bust warm during the fall/winter months when the sound is relatively warm?

 

I can't remember.   I don't think there are errors more consistently in one direction in the cold season.

[Deweydog]

You just got yourself on the list buddy!

[TT-SEA]

All the small seasonal streams around here that only run when its really wet in the winter are roaring today. That was some intense rain for 24 hours here.

[Trainwreck]

When models get fidgety, the "forums" get fidgety, I usually just trust Mark in his forecasts. The dude is almost always spot on and brings reality back, especially inthe winter. Wait a minute, I trust his forecasts more than all anyways.... not sure what I was just saying.

[Trainwreck]

What do you think Phil, some on here put you on that scale, do you feel like you're on Marks perch?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got up to 98 here in NE Oklahoma today. Heat Index forecast to hit 107 tomorrow...Good lord... This week has been quite a shock to the system. Beautiful sunset tonight...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Close to 70 here with sunny skies and breezy.

 

Sure bounced back quickly, made it up to 71F here today and it was warm/sunny most of the day.

[Phil]

What do you think Phil, some on here put you on that scale, do you feel like you're on Marks perch?

No.